He’s the first talk of Saturday morning.

Three questions that always seem to come up: how soon, how safe and how much? People are asking if anything is happening, because there hasn’t been a lot of visible activity lately. Cites Stephen Stills: “somethin’ happenin’ here, what it is ain’t completely clear.”

A great deal is happening–lull is only on the surface. Momentum hasn’t stalled. We’re following a typical time line with other transportation systems. Very little visible activity for a couple years after December 3rd, 1903. Dumont, Wrights, Bleriot, Curtiss were doing a lot, but it wasn’t going on in the sky. Shopwork, experiments, bench testing, craftsmanship. Things that needed to be done, but not things that got one into the papers. It was a consolidation of understanding a new technology. We’re in a similar period right now.

AST involved with a dozen entrepreneurs at various stages of developing new launch vehicles. Not glamorous work, but essential. Headlines are just prelude to longer-term important developments. Citing Golden Spike, and Lindbergh, after which transportation systems gradually grew and then exploded.

Industry is in the ready room, but not quite ready for the camera. But will be very soon, by the end of the decade. Answer: no launch delays due to paperwork, though there have been struggles to achieve that. We need to recognize that this is new activity, and, keep communications lines open. Learned lessons from SpaceShipOne and will continue to learn as we go.

For safety, we have a good record, but we will not be perfect and everyone needs to understand that. Citing the hundreds and thousands of people who die in other forms of transportation (aircraft, boating, autos). Safety will be at the top and middle and bottom of every checklist, but risk will always be present. Rules will require informed consent of passengers. Flights will be safe as possible, but perfection is not humanly probable. These flights will be spectacular–sensations, sounds, sights…and risk.

Initial market in good shape (fifteen millions sales for Virgin Galactic two years before flight). Question is if it is a large enough market to sustain. He sees promise.

Using example of three-body problem back in the sixties. A similar three-body problem has held us back in human spaceflight–technology, capital and market. A critical mass of private investment is becoming available, the technology seems adequate, and the market is willing (though only a small fraction is able to pay current prices).

Early train travel was expensive, but technological improvements brought it to the masses.

What is FAA doing?

First, what is FAA not doing. Regulating to ensure safety to the uninvolved public, but staying out of the way of critical technological developments.

What they are doing: finishing up rules on experimental permits, and in process of issuing to seven different developers, just granted OK Spaceport license, ahd working with X-Prize Cup. Also continuing to work with ELVs, and now have 178 consecutive launches with no damage or injury to general public.

Question about lunar landing challenge and if we’re ready: still feeling way through the experimental permit process–recognizes that time is short, but will see what they have when the time comes.

Question about whether FAA is working develop standards for passenger safety: No, working on informed consent basis for now, though no compromise or change for safety to uninvolved. Need to get experience before we can establish standards for passenger safety, so we don’t strangle industry, per Congressional maddate. Not like stepping on an airline.

Stu Witt (Mojave airport manager) asking: have we missed any RLV launches due to regulation?

Are any states of spaceports applying their own passenger safety standards? Not to his knowledge. Wouldn’t be a good idea for individual states or communities to come up with their own standards, because it would complicate life.

Do you have enough budgets and people: Things are tight, but attitude is that the next year or so will tell whether or not we’ll be able to continue at this level. Expect workload to skyrocket as industry develops. May have to request more resources in future to prevent delays, but this year will give a good indicator.

Will orbital have an extension of the same treatment that suborbital got, and what kind of timeframe does he see? Answer: current law requires separate licenses for launch and entry, but there is no regulatory regime for on-orbit activities (not necessarily a problem, because there is no danger to on-ground public from this). No opportunity yet to license a reusable orbital vehicle, but thinks that regulatory infrastructure is in place to handle it, a few years downstream.

Rocketplane’s number one passenger asks if there are any government agencies asking passengers what they think is safe and what they’d like to see? Answer: FAA is interested in input, and potential passengers have same process in the NPRM comments process as everyone else.

Journalism Prizes

Congratulations to Leonard David for winning the 2nd Annual Space Journalism Award of $1,000 for best article on human spacefaring for January-September 2005 for his article, Space Tourism: Keeping the Customer Satisfied. I sponsored this and it was judged by Clark Lindsey, Jeff Foust and last year’s winner, Eli Kintisch. I also sponsored a prize for Best Breaking News Reporting of $1,000 judged by the Space Frontier Foundation Board that went to Alan Boyle.

Bigelow

Nothing that Bigelow said or did was particularly surprising except that Bigelow Aerospace is now being an open company and lifting the covers off of a very interesting and ambitious program. Another surprise was that Bigelow himself led the three tours of his facility. He’s in good shape with grey hair and a moustache. He wore a shirt that was colorful with patterns reminiscent of seismometer tracks. Bigelow opening up was like a quake that was building up for a long time. The Bigelow items at the Space Frontier Foundation Teacher’s in Space auction went for high prices. One of five signed Bigelow posters went for more than tours of SpaceX and Rocketplane, and generous affinity packages from XCOR, Masten and Armadillo Aerospace.

One auction item of note is the right to name one of the scorpions going up on a Genesis or the next larger scale model, the Galaxy (perhaps a renamed Guardian at 45% scale). During the tour, Bigelow pointed out his life sciences area under construction where he will keep a control group of various animals that will mirror another set going up into space on future missions.

The Genesis is “1/3” scale, but that encompasses less than 1/27 of the volume of the Nautilus because of some components that do not scale well. The Guardian/Galaxy if it’s 45% would have almost 10% of the volume of the full size BA-330 Nautilus. The ISS is only 425 cubic meters at this point and will only be triple that volume when “completed” (if ever). Five Bigelow habs could be four times the volume of the current ISS. With the floor and ceiling usable, and two bulkheads making three decks, a single 330 presents as much living “area” as a 5000 square foot house. Stringing them together would make a pretty nice lab and hotel complex. Bigelow’s anticipated market of the rest of the countries of the world sending astronauts is intriguing and reminiscent of The Rocket Company by David Hoerr. He’s not talking about industry any more after finding out how badly burned they were with their dealings with NASA.

On a positive note, Bigelow says he’ll be starting an Astronaut corps in four years. When I asked him what people should do to get ready, e.g., study hard in school, he said “I’ll have to think on that.”

Masten

At Michael Mealling’s business plan presentation, he said that a key differentiator for Masten for their later generations will be the ability to go to 500km with their tourist version. Another differentiator is that the pilot will be on the ground.

First to Suborbit

I heard from George French III (aka little George) who is son of Chairman George French, on the Board of Directors at Rocketplane Kistler and heading up Sales and Customer Relations that Rocketplane will delay their first revenue flight for XP past 2007. This leaves Armadillo with the earliest announced date for beginning of test flights for their tourist vehicle. At least four different vendors have told me they will or could be first and there are at least two fast followers that I am aware of. Some are still seeking funding. It should be pretty exciting when it all hits which may be 2007, but depending on how successfully development and testing go for Armadillo, it may hit in 2008, or if it goes slowly for a wider crowd, 2009.

Charles Miller of Constellation Services is talking about COTS and servicing ISS. He’s discussing the difficulty of the certification process to be allowed to dock to ISS. Their solution was to use Russian hardware that had already been allowed to do it, using an “intermodal transportation” approach.

Their idea is to use Progress as a “tug” and cargo containers that look like a station in terms of the interface, for a “plug’n’play” system. He’s apparently presenting their COTS approach. (I should note that today’s Space.com says that Charles is unhappy at not being selected for COTS, and some (though not necessarily Charles ) think that NASA doesn’t take either COTS, or the station resupply problem seriously.)

Go read the link for background, but his bottom line is that they’re still offering ISS cargo delivery to NASA, even if they don’t get any of the COTS development money.

I just missed Jim Benson’s discussion of SpaceDev’s Dreamchaser, because I was out in the hallway, but Neil Milburn of Armadillo Aerospace is about to speak.

Giving a brief history of the company. It’s a volunteer organization (so far) funded by John Carmack, writer of the Doom and Quake video games. They’re hobbyists, mixing computers and rockets. Think of themselves as “twenty-first century bicycle mechanics.”

Describing their new vehicle, with LOX/ethanol propellants. They’re have a “vertical drag racer” in January of ’07, and expect to have a hundred-kilometer altitude, X-Prize class vehicle next spring. They’ve been talking to Lutz Kayser, who developed OTRAG back in the sixties and seventies, and are incorporating some of his modular, low-cost-component ideas into their vehicle. It’s called Large Array of SimplE Rockets (LASER). Starting to think about orbital capability.

Chuck Lauer talking now about Rocketplane Kistler. Combining the two companies–one a horizontal takeoff and land, and the other a vertical takeoff and land, provides some good synergies. Showing CAD views of the XP suborbital vehicle. Based on a stretched Lear 25 for a four-seat vehicle, and working on a version with stretched fuselage and larger wings with eight seats. Verified computer design against the wind tunnel (did a lot of work at Marshall Spaceflight Center) and consider configuration validated, with stable entry (Burt Rutan wrong about feathered configuration only safe way to come back). Uisng Rocketdyne RS-88 engine.

Three and a half gees up, four to five minutes of weightlessness, four gees coming in. Oklahoma Spaceport got its license about a month ago. Established the first non-military overland track for rockets.

Looking into using XP as a platform for an expendable second stage. Would separate out of the atmosphere to avoid aero loads during separation. Using a Japanese hybrid rocket (LOX/Polyethylene). Developed as sounding rocket, and determined that they could get it to over four hundred kilometers altitude with a seventy-kilometer release, with nine minutes of weightlessness. Could also do scramjet/entry research with it.

Looking at other spaceports in Japan, Australia, Dubai, and US orbital spaceports (site still TBD), with long-term goal of point-to-point service. Hope to eventually integrate spaceplanes into conventional ATC system, with perhaps Anchorage as a world-wide hub.

Kistler is getting their contractors back on board, preparing for COTS, but also interested in Bigelow as a customer even without COTS. COTS only necessary to meet early NASA goals. They expect to be able to launch in 2007 or 2008 given funding because vehicle is three quarters built. Considering Florida and New Mexico as potential US launch sites. Could have fully-reusable system, at the same time that LEO comsats seem to be making a comeback.

Can fly standard space station hardware with a pressurized cargo module, for microgravity experiments of a couple weeks without ISS. Looking into ways of getting back to the moon with it, when combined with propellant depot. Need to have an entire earth-moon system serviceable by commercial vehicles quickly and cheaply. Thinks that with needed flight rate, could do heavy-lift job at fraction of the cost, and would like to see COTS model extended to lunar missions.

Dave Masten up now. Formed in Space Access ’04, built a lot ot test stands and infrastructure. Had major milestone of igniter about the time of Space Access ’05, had initial engine testing in November, and right after the recent ISDC had successful engine tests. Major milestones always seem to come right after major conferences. Will have their first flight test next week.

Starting off with suborbital, hundred kilograms to hundred kilometers. Want to build on operational capability, without being too concerned about performance initially. Next step will be a vehicle with a little more payload and a lot more altitude. Then scale up to something that can take people into space, vertical takeoff vertical landing. Want to be able to stack them to eventually get to orbit. Like vertical vertical because it lends itself eventually to a lunar lander. Interested in pursuing lunar lander challenge.

Engine R&D is complete, expect first hover flight next week (July 27th). Will compete for X-Prize Cup Lunar Lander Challenge, and expect to be able to go into space in early 2007.

I just missed Jim Benson’s discussion of SpaceDev’s Dreamchaser, because I was out in the hallway, but Neil Milburn of Armadillo Aerospace is about to speak.

Giving a brief history of the company. It’s a volunteer organization (so far) funded by John Carmack, writer of the Doom and Quake video games. They’re hobbyists, mixing computers and rockets. Think of themselves as “twenty-first century bicycle mechanics.”

Describing their new vehicle, with LOX/ethanol propellants. They’re have a “vertical drag racer” in January of ’07, and expect to have a hundred-kilometer altitude, X-Prize class vehicle next spring. They’ve been talking to Lutz Kayser, who developed OTRAG back in the sixties and seventies, and are incorporating some of his modular, low-cost-component ideas into their vehicle. It’s called Large Array of SimplE Rockets (LASER). Starting to think about orbital capability.

Chuck Lauer talking now about Rocketplane Kistler. Combining the two companies–one a horizontal takeoff and land, and the other a vertical takeoff and land, provides some good synergies. Showing CAD views of the XP suborbital vehicle. Based on a stretched Lear 25 for a four-seat vehicle, and working on a version with stretched fuselage and larger wings with eight seats. Verified computer design against the wind tunnel (did a lot of work at Marshall Spaceflight Center) and consider configuration validated, with stable entry (Burt Rutan wrong about feathered configuration only safe way to come back). Uisng Rocketdyne RS-88 engine.

Three and a half gees up, four to five minutes of weightlessness, four gees coming in. Oklahoma Spaceport got its license about a month ago. Established the first non-military overland track for rockets.

Looking into using XP as a platform for an expendable second stage. Would separate out of the atmosphere to avoid aero loads during separation. Using a Japanese hybrid rocket (LOX/Polyethylene). Developed as sounding rocket, and determined that they could get it to over four hundred kilometers altitude with a seventy-kilometer release, with nine minutes of weightlessness. Could also do scramjet/entry research with it.

Looking at other spaceports in Japan, Australia, Dubai, and US orbital spaceports (site still TBD), with long-term goal of point-to-point service. Hope to eventually integrate spaceplanes into conventional ATC system, with perhaps Anchorage as a world-wide hub.

Kistler is getting their contractors back on board, preparing for COTS, but also interested in Bigelow as a customer even without COTS. COTS only necessary to meet early NASA goals. They expect to be able to launch in 2007 or 2008 given funding because vehicle is three quarters built. Considering Florida and New Mexico as potential US launch sites. Could have fully-reusable system, at the same time that LEO comsats seem to be making a comeback.

Can fly standard space station hardware with a pressurized cargo module, for microgravity experiments of a couple weeks without ISS. Looking into ways of getting back to the moon with it, when combined with propellant depot. Need to have an entire earth-moon system serviceable by commercial vehicles quickly and cheaply. Thinks that with needed flight rate, could do heavy-lift job at fraction of the cost, and would like to see COTS model extended to lunar missions.

Dave Masten up now. Formed in Space Access ’04, built a lot ot test stands and infrastructure. Had major milestone of igniter about the time of Space Access ’05, had initial engine testing in November, and right after the recent ISDC had successful engine tests. Major milestones always seem to come right after major conferences. Will have their first flight test next week.

Starting off with suborbital, hundred kilograms to hundred kilometers. Want to build on operational capability, without being too concerned about performance initially. Next step will be a vehicle with a little more payload and a lot more altitude. Then scale up to something that can take people into space, vertical takeoff vertical landing. Want to be able to stack them to eventually get to orbit. Like vertical vertical because it lends itself eventually to a lunar lander. Interested in pursuing lunar lander challenge.

Engine R&D is complete, expect first hover flight next week (July 27th). Will compete for X-Prize Cup Lunar Lander Challenge, and expect to be able to go into space in early 2007.

I just missed Jim Benson’s discussion of SpaceDev’s Dreamchaser, because I was out in the hallway, but Neil Milburn of Armadillo Aerospace is about to speak.

Giving a brief history of the company. It’s a volunteer organization (so far) funded by John Carmack, writer of the Doom and Quake video games. They’re hobbyists, mixing computers and rockets. Think of themselves as “twenty-first century bicycle mechanics.”

Describing their new vehicle, with LOX/ethanol propellants. They’re have a “vertical drag racer” in January of ’07, and expect to have a hundred-kilometer altitude, X-Prize class vehicle next spring. They’ve been talking to Lutz Kayser, who developed OTRAG back in the sixties and seventies, and are incorporating some of his modular, low-cost-component ideas into their vehicle. It’s called Large Array of SimplE Rockets (LASER). Starting to think about orbital capability.

Chuck Lauer talking now about Rocketplane Kistler. Combining the two companies–one a horizontal takeoff and land, and the other a vertical takeoff and land, provides some good synergies. Showing CAD views of the XP suborbital vehicle. Based on a stretched Lear 25 for a four-seat vehicle, and working on a version with stretched fuselage and larger wings with eight seats. Verified computer design against the wind tunnel (did a lot of work at Marshall Spaceflight Center) and consider configuration validated, with stable entry (Burt Rutan wrong about feathered configuration only safe way to come back). Uisng Rocketdyne RS-88 engine.

Three and a half gees up, four to five minutes of weightlessness, four gees coming in. Oklahoma Spaceport got its license about a month ago. Established the first non-military overland track for rockets.

Looking into using XP as a platform for an expendable second stage. Would separate out of the atmosphere to avoid aero loads during separation. Using a Japanese hybrid rocket (LOX/Polyethylene). Developed as sounding rocket, and determined that they could get it to over four hundred kilometers altitude with a seventy-kilometer release, with nine minutes of weightlessness. Could also do scramjet/entry research with it.

Looking at other spaceports in Japan, Australia, Dubai, and US orbital spaceports (site still TBD), with long-term goal of point-to-point service. Hope to eventually integrate spaceplanes into conventional ATC system, with perhaps Anchorage as a world-wide hub.

Kistler is getting their contractors back on board, preparing for COTS, but also interested in Bigelow as a customer even without COTS. COTS only necessary to meet early NASA goals. They expect to be able to launch in 2007 or 2008 given funding because vehicle is three quarters built. Considering Florida and New Mexico as potential US launch sites. Could have fully-reusable system, at the same time that LEO comsats seem to be making a comeback.

Can fly standard space station hardware with a pressurized cargo module, for microgravity experiments of a couple weeks without ISS. Looking into ways of getting back to the moon with it, when combined with propellant depot. Need to have an entire earth-moon system serviceable by commercial vehicles quickly and cheaply. Thinks that with needed flight rate, could do heavy-lift job at fraction of the cost, and would like to see COTS model extended to lunar missions.

Dave Masten up now. Formed in Space Access ’04, built a lot ot test stands and infrastructure. Had major milestone of igniter about the time of Space Access ’05, had initial engine testing in November, and right after the recent ISDC had successful engine tests. Major milestones always seem to come right after major conferences. Will have their first flight test next week.

Starting off with suborbital, hundred kilograms to hundred kilometers. Want to build on operational capability, without being too concerned about performance initially. Next step will be a vehicle with a little more payload and a lot more altitude. Then scale up to something that can take people into space, vertical takeoff vertical landing. Want to be able to stack them to eventually get to orbit. Like vertical vertical because it lends itself eventually to a lunar lander. Interested in pursuing lunar lander challenge.

Engine R&D is complete, expect first hover flight next week (July 27th). Will compete for X-Prize Cup Lunar Lander Challenge, and expect to be able to go into space in early 2007.

Rick Tumlinson is introducing Bob Bigelow, admiring someone who “antes up.” He’s worked all his life to build what he’s got, and now he’s doing something bigger and grander and more important to create a great future for our kids. He’s translating his business and real estate knowledge into the development of space which is (in the Foundation’s words) just a place.

Definitely wants to go to space. His wife says that she would like to send him to the moon (bang, zoom…). No rimshot.

Thanking the Russians for how they accommodated them, and the extra effort they went to. Also thanking his company’s staff. A small organization that makes up for it with incredible enthusiasm and skills. Still looking for more people in engineering, legal, accounting. Two plants, one in North Vegas, one in Houston. Also a Washington office, which is a crucial part of the activities. Technological challenges are huge, but not on the top of the list of what can hurt you. Politics is much tougher, which is what the Washington office struggles with every day.

Burt Rutan and Elon Musk are successful because they’re not just good technically, but good businessmen. (Acknowledging Buzz Aldrin, who just walked into the room, calling him “my hero.”) They know how to manage money, and people, and the technical aspects follow. Priority order is politics, management, and then the technical part.

Community is not very large and “we need to stick together, pull together, and make things happen.” He sees himself as being part of the destination part. “We will fly your stuff.” Taking emailed photos, converting to cards, and flying them in the habitats where they can float around and be viewed with a camera. Also taking golf-ball-sized objects. Inviting people to fly with them.

Evolving to the goal of a full-size module that can sustain up to six people for years at a time–LEO, deep space, and lunar and Martian surfaces. Each additional spacecraft will be increasingly complex, getting larger and testing new subsystems, while also learning how to manage communications with multiple spacecraft simultaneously. Will be flying every six months, so up to five spacecraft to track and communicate with over a two-and-a-half-year period. Building own tracking stations in Hawaii, Fairbanks, etc. Will fly a second flight later this year, also out of Russia (SS-18 Dneper–an altered ICBM). Likes the idea of swords to ploughshares.

ISS not “customer friendly,” leaving rest of the world sitting on the sidelines. 350 astronauts in the world right now, but hopes to increase that by fifteen to twenty times over the next dozen years or so. Sees astronauts for other governments as a more interesting market than tourism per se.

Look at themselves as providing facilities to meet customer requirements, but not necessarily involved in what actually takes place on board (like a regional mall). Banks understand this kind of deal. A number of terrestrial and marine models for destinations that can serve as useful models. Wants to train thousands of “professional astronauts” to serve needs of big aerospace in a similar manner to which the military trains pilots and aviation professionals for that business.

First module will be 330 cubic meters (a little over half of current ISS size). Dneper can handle first two generations–Genesis and Galaxy, but generation after that will outgrow it. Estimate twenty launches in third year of operation (sixteen for people and four for cargo). Would like a crew vehicle that can handle eight people, but thinks that’s driven by seat cost, and would be happy with less if it can be done for comparable seat cost. Looking to Atlas V or Falcon 9 (if Elon is of a mind to do that).

Thinks that space tourism will happen, but their focus is on the path of serving private services for exploration and cargo, following the nautical analogy. Doesn’t want to depend on any one income stream, and trying to develop thorough understanding of what kinds of income streams can be derived from robotic applications. Thinks that tourism will be relatively small population for the first few years, due to high price. Professional astronaut community seems like the biggest single revenue opportunity, by pursuing countries that have previously had few opportunities. Space tourism pricing will have to be lower than “professional astronatus.” Thinks that eight million per trip would have some market, but they’d make no profit at that price. They would put tourists to work, filming, helping with tasks. Want to coordinate with Space Adventures and others to put together packages.

Have “only been a spaceflight company for one week.” “This is our first rodeo.”

Can’t believe that they’re doing this, and how well it’s going. Expecting Murphy to show up any minutes. Would not have been financially possible without Russian help. Don’t know what future is, not taking anything for granted, looking over their shoulders, feeling “hot breath of challenge.” Don’t take this likely.

Expects competition, but have a lead, and hope to keep moving quickly to maintain it. Have to make quick decisions. Plenty of things to worry about, but are optimists, so they don’t hesitate when decisions have to be made.

Just asked how much more time he had. “All you need, Bob.” (Rick Tumlinson)

[Note: I see that Clark Lindsey has a description of yesterday’s Bigelow facilities tour.]

They’ve taken about 500 photos of Genesis 1 up to this point in time.

They’re showing a video now, mostly press clips. I’m shutting down temporarily, so I can go tour the Bigelow faclity.

[Update]

I may regret this, but the tour was going to last several hours, and I didn’t want to miss that much of the conference.

Clark Lindsey has a summary of Bigelow’s talk.

[Update]

Alan Boyle also has a Bigelow tour report.

I made it up from LA in three and a half hours flat. It’s a lot easier to do when you leave at 4 AM. I’m sitting in the conference room at the Flamingo, waiting for the keynote speech by Bob Bigelow. Let’s see if he makes some news.

…but hopefully not a dollar short.

I have some ruminations on yesterday’s (actually, still today’s in Mountain, Pacific and Central time) anniversaries.

Any readers I have who are interested in working on the CEV program (despite any disparaging remarks I may have made about it) have an opportunity now, if you have the right experience and skill set. The company with which I’m consulting, ARES Corporation, is hiring, for both southern California and Houston.

If you go there as a result of this post, please let them know, so we know how effective it is, relative to other ad media.