Next New Shepard flight is now scheduled for Monday. I wonder what the delay has been about? In 2017, they said they’d be flying people in 2018.
Category Archives: Technology and Society
Missile Defense And Launch Costs
I did a thread on Twitter this morning.
It's worth noting that one of the reasons we never got space-based missile defense was that it was only recently that we've finally gotten launch costs down sufficiently to make it financially feasible, due to an almost demented policy failure for the past three decades. [1/n] https://t.co/ouaaIS9eUk
— Rand Simberg (@Rand_Simberg) January 18, 2019
The first serious proposal for space-based missile defense was Lowell Wood's concept of "Brilliant Pebbles": Kinetic interceptors in orbit. But in order to implement it, launch costs had to be reduced far below those of the Shuttle and conventional USAF expendables.
— Rand Simberg (@Rand_Simberg) January 18, 2019
The purpose of the DARPA DC-X program was to demonstrate the potential for reusable Single-Stage-To-Orbit, which many viewed as a requirement for low launch cost (SpaceX has since proven this to be mistaken).
— Rand Simberg (@Rand_Simberg) January 18, 2019
DC-X did demonstrate vertical take-off and landing of single vehicle in an atmosphere (the Apollo LEM was two stage in a vacuum). It also demonstrated relatively rapid turnaround of a LOX/LH2 propulsion system. But then NASA took it over.
— Rand Simberg (@Rand_Simberg) January 18, 2019
On one of the test flights of the NASA-modified vehicle, someone left a pneumatic hose off one of the legs, and it crashed and burned at White Sands, ending the program.
— Rand Simberg (@Rand_Simberg) January 18, 2019
Another thing that the DC-X program demonstrated before its demise was that traditional cost models for new concepts were utter crap. SpaceX has since validated that. NAFCON cost model has been shown to be worse than worthless for non-traditional activities.
— Rand Simberg (@Rand_Simberg) January 18, 2019
One of the biggest launch-policy errors of the 90s was to confine the military to expendables, and assign reusable space transports to NASA. It was nothing short of disastrous, setting us back over a decade.
— Rand Simberg (@Rand_Simberg) January 18, 2019
After the X-33 debacle, which no one saw coming except anyone who understood how to do X programs, the idiotic lesson (fallacy of hasty generalization) drawn from it by NASA was that reusable launch systems weren't practical. Tell it to SpaceX.
— Rand Simberg (@Rand_Simberg) January 18, 2019
X-33 should never have been awarded to Lockmart (their proposal wasn't compliant, in that the business plan was nonsense, but no one at MSFC would recognize a business plan if it kicked them in the ass). Also, should never have been a single award.
— Rand Simberg (@Rand_Simberg) January 18, 2019
A key rule of X programs is that a vehicle only tests one new technology, on a platform that is otherwise well understood. VentureStar was testing single-stage to Montana, with a linear aerospike engine, and a conformal composite hydrogen tank. Huge and obvious tech risk.
— Rand Simberg (@Rand_Simberg) January 18, 2019
X-33 was an example of NASA's Wile E. Coyote approach to technology development: Try some crazy thing, then when it doesn't work, don't try to figure out why and improve it, just assume it can't be done and go on to the next crazy thing.
— Rand Simberg (@Rand_Simberg) January 18, 2019
And so we entered the 21st century with no one, neither USAF or NASA, even attempting to get launch costs down. Former was focused on mission assurance of expendable EELVs, and latter had devolved into a jobs program for giant expendable rockets.
— Rand Simberg (@Rand_Simberg) January 18, 2019
But now, having done that, it's useful to go back and re-examine concepts for space-based missile defense that were financially infeasible with traditional launch costs of many thousands of dollars per pound. Cubesats are also a game changer.
— Rand Simberg (@Rand_Simberg) January 18, 2019
[Update a couple minutes later]
Trump’s missile-defense strategy.
As I noted above, if the space segment is now feasible, it’s despite, not because of government launch policy for the past three decades (except possibly for COTS).
Toxic Anti-Masculinity
Thoughts on the need for both masculinity and femininity from a (female) psychotherapist.
And Kurt Schlichter writes that we need to retoxify it.
[Update a while later]
Heh. Least masculine society in human history is concerned about “toxic masculinity.”
And this will be fun: Harvard could be sued under Title IX for calling traditional masculinity “harmful.”
The Elements Of Writing
An interesting interview with Virginia Postrel.
Glenn Miller’s Plane
One of the mysteries of the war may be about to be solved. It still wouldn’t explain what caused it to go down, though.
Space Force
The television show.
Despite Steve Carrell, I don’t have high hopes.
The Space Frontier Act
Ted Cruz is going to try to pass it again. Hope it happens.
So, in this alternate universe in which Ted Cruz has a beard, will he be able to get the Space Frontier Act passed?https://t.co/fW2b1j68ki
— Rand Simberg (@Rand_Simberg) January 17, 2019
Steak Blogging
Stephen Green has a rub recipe. I have to confess, I don’t put anything on it before grilling except bacon grease. Maybe I’ll try this.
California’s Loss Is Texas’s Gain
SpaceX has decided to move all of Starship development from the Port of LA.
Why stay in the worst state in the union in which to do business?
The FBI And Its Media Accomplices
Are the walls closing in? I hope so, but I’ve been disappointed before.
[Update a couple minutes later]
More from Debra Heine:
Most people, except a few paid trolls and Democrats with political axes to grind, have figured out there is no “there” there. Mueller is reportedly preparing to show his hand, and it’s almost certain to be “anti-climatic,” sources close to the investigation say.
It’s all over but the crying.
And liberal tears will indeed flow if Mueller’s final report comes out and it contains no bombshells and is unable to prove that President Trump colluded, conspired, schemed, or plotted with the Russians to win the 2016 election. It’s also unlikely that he’ll be accused of obstruction for firing Comey, an absurdly weak pretext for an investigation if ever there was one…
…Meanwhile, the inspector general’s investigation looking into the deep state’s surveillance abuse before the election continues apace, and a secret grand jury has been investigating former FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe for months. The OIG revealed last month that it was unable to recover a number of vital Strzok/Page text messages from the special counsel’s office because Mueller’s records officer had scrubbed them. That almost looked like a warning shot from the OIG to the special counsel.
Again, let’s hope.