Bob Zimmerman has some prognostications.
I agree that it’s likely to be a banner year, with an even brighter future.
Category Archives: Technology and Society
The SpaceX Failure
The final assessment. I’m selfishly hoping they’ll delay past the 7th, because we get in from London at 2 AM on that date, and won’t be in a mood for a drive up to Vandenberg.
[Update a few minutes later]
Return to flight now scheduled for Sunday night. We’ll try to watch from the beach, if the weather is clear.
The Biggest Space Stories Of The Year
I usually write these sorts of things, but I’m on vacation, and Mike Wall has ten. I think that the Bezos announcement of New Glenn and New Armstrong are as big as Elon’s Mars announcement though. I consider Bezos both more ambitious, and more credible, in the sense that he is spending his own money, and not lobbying the government for it.
The Reactionless Drive
The Chinese are claiming they’ve successfully tested it on orbit.
I remain skeptical.
A New Little Ice Age
Has it already started?
Earth’s new climate will affect much more than the energy sector. Abdussamatov leaves us with a dire warning.
“The world must start preparing for the new Little Ice Age right now. Politicians and business leaders must make full economic calculations of the impact of the new Little Ice Age on everything — industry, agriculture, living conditions, development. The most reasonable way to fight against the new Little Ice Age is a complex of special steps aimed at support of economic growth and energy-saving production to adapt mankind to the forthcoming period of deep cooling.”
An overheated planet has never been a threat, say climate skeptics, not today, not ever in human history. An underheated planet, in contrast, is a threat humans have repeatedly faced over the last millennium, and now we’re due again.
To me, the evidence is quite a bit more compelling than it is for warming. He’s relying on history and empirical data, not computer models.
To The Moon?
Bob Zimmmerman speculates on what the Trump administration might do in civil space policy.
Obama’s Drilling Ban
Trump should immediately rescind it.
Yes. I hope he spends his first week doing nothing except reversing all these unlawful unconstitutional executive orders.
[Friday-afternoon update]
Obama’s midnight-regulation express:
Any action that is rushed is likely to be shoddy, especially if it’s from the federal government. The point is for Mr. Obama to have his way and to swamp the Trump administration with a dizzying array of new rules to have to undo. That diverts manpower from bigger and better priorities.
President Obama is hoping this work will prove too much and his rules will stand. He’d be making a good bet. George W. Bush promised to undo last-minute Clinton regulations. Yet a paper done in 2005 by Jason M. Loring and Liam R. Roth in Wake Forest Law Review found that a whopping 82% were left to stand.
Then again, a Republican Congress seems ready and willing to invoke the Congressional Review Act, which allows legislators to reject rule-making. More important, Mr. Trump and his team seem to understand that Americans are angry at Mr. Obama’s tendency to rule like an autocrat. They also surely know how damaging many of these Obama parting gifts (particularly energy rules) will prove to their own agenda.
A Trump administration could send a powerful message to future presidents and build public support by highlighting the “midnight regulation” phenomenon and then making it a priority to ax every final Obama order. Single them out. Make a public list. Celebrate every repeal. That would be as profound a rebuke to the Obama legacy—a legacy based on abuse of power—as any other.
Also a reminder that the Bush administration was terrible on regulations and small government. I don’t see why undoing all those would require much “manpower.” Getting rid of them would be a good start to “draining the swamp.”
Curing Diabetes
Faster, please.
Moon Versus Mars
A (sort of) debate between Paul Spudis and John Grunsfeld. I think that Grunsfeld is far too pessimistic about the moon, but I also think that this debate is irrelevant. Our future in space will be determined by billionaires, not Congress or NASA.
The Future
Stephen Pinker says don’t be so glum.