Category Archives: Technology and Society

Business, Economics, Space, Technology and Society

SpaceX Plans

10 Comments

Jeff Foust has the highlights of what Gwynne said at the conference yesterday (I flew back last night, got in about midnight).

Not covered: I asked her the status on crossfeeding Falcon Heavy. She said definitely not first flight — they want to get the thing flying first (which makes perfect sense), but want to get there, maybe in the next two years. She also said that they had no current customer for a “sixty-ton(ne) payload.” Parenthesis because I don’t know if she meant English or metric, but either way, that’s the first time I’ve heard that number. The original stated payload (with crossfeed) was fifty-three tonnes (I think, have to double check, might have been tons), but that was also in expendable mode. I can imagine with the improved performance of the new larger densified Falcon cores, it would go up, but it’s not clear what the flyback penalty is. I may follow up with her in email.

[Update a few minutes later]

30th Space Wing is planning for a Falcon landing at Vandenberg this year.

Business, Economics, Media Criticism, Political Commentary, Science And Society, Technology and Society

#ProTip To Climate Scientists

3 Comments

When you say “the science is settled,” you are arguing for an end to your research funding.

Oops.

This is all part of the Democrats’ war on science:

Looking forward to a new U.S. President next year, whether the Democrats or the Republicans are in power, I don’t expect a continuation of the status quo on climate science funding. The Democrats are moving away from science towards policy – who needs to spend all that funding on basic climate science research? Global climate modeling might be ‘saved’ if they think these climate models can support local impact assessments (in spite of widespread acknowledgement that they cannot). If the Republicans are elected, Ted Cruz has stated he will stop all funding support for the IPCC and UNFCCC initiatives. That said, he seems to like data and basic scientific research.

Heh.

[Update a few minutes later]

“It’s a bit complicated.”

You don’t say.

Business, General, Space, Technology and Society

Off To DC

3 Comments

I got up at 3 AM to catch a 5 AM flight from LAX to DCA via ORD. Heading there for the FAA-AST Space Transportation Conference tomorrow. Earliest flight I’ve ever taken from there, I think. I had TSA pre-check, but the line wasn’t open yet, so I had to do the whole drill. The American terminal is pretty dead at 4 AM. Anyway, I’m in a flying chair somewhere over the plains with Internet. It almost feels like the 21st century.

Business, Economics, Technology and Society

Shale 2.0

22 Comments

Yeah, I fully expect to see oil go below $20, expecially after the shakeout and bankruptcies that allow pumping at lower prices. And it will be good for everyone except oil companies and oil kleptocracies. Other than California, look for gas below two bucks indefinitely.

[Update a few minuts later]

OK, well, this isn’t as encouraging:

During the 2007 crisis, central banks the world over made a coordinated effort that pumped large amounts of liquidity into the system, easing the pressure. However, since 2009, these same central banks have followed an easy monetary policy, inflating balance sheets to scary levels, as shown in the chart above. They will find it difficult to handle any future crises caused by low oil prices. They are now out of ammunition.

The current oil crisis will see regime changes in strategic places, and a currency crisis is in the offing. The world is staring at deflation. And while the 2007 crisis started in the US and then spread around the world, today’s crisis is affecting all major nations simultaneously. All are struggling due to low oil prices—some directly because of lower revenues, and others because of deflationary pressure.

The next crisis will be larger and longer and it will hurt a lot more than the last one. The windfall at the gas pump is a dark harbinger.

At least we’ll be able to afford to fill the tank, if we have jobs.