NASA Spaceflight is starting a series on the candidates’ views. Carson seems clueless.
Category Archives: Technology and Society
The Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel
The 2016 annual report is out. I haven’t read it yet, but that’s my assignment for this afternoon. In my book, I quoted extensively from the 2014 version, and was quite critical. According to initial tweets, they’re very concerned about safety in SLS/Orion. They should be.
[Update a while later]
Here’s more reporting on the SLS mess from Eric Berger.
New Nukes
A Canadian company has gotten funding to move forward on a molten-salt reactor. I think a lot of sensible people are realizing that if carbon really is a problem, nuclear is the solution, despite the insanity of people like Naomi Oreskes.
But my question is: Would this be a useful tech for space, either for electric power generation or propulsion? The company could do a spin off called Extraterrestrial Energy.
The SLS Mess
A recognition by NASA that the vehicle has no missions. Too bad Congress doesn’t understand that.
This is what happens when you come up with Design Reference Missions to match a design, instead of the right way around.
@NASASpaceflight Look up the phrase "solution looking for a problem," and you'll see a picture of SLS.
— Rand Simberg (@Rand_Simberg) January 12, 2016
[Update Wednesday morning]
More from Loren Grush over at The Verge:
But the SLS is expensive, and NASA’s budget is at the lowest it has been in decades, even with the new budget allotment of $19.3 billion for the 2016 fiscal year. The cost of developing the SLS through 2017 is expected to total $18 billion. And once the rocket is built, each launch is going to cost somewhere between $500 and $700 million, which makes it unlikely that the rocket will carry astronauts more than once a year.
If they’re only flying once a year, there’s no way the launch cost is that low. It’s at least two billion. I don’t know where that $500-$700M number comes from, but it’s probably marginal cost, which is a meaningless number for a vehicle with such a low flight rate.
[Bumped]
Scientists’ Emails
A roundup of thoughts, by Judith Curry, with some of her own.
Reforming Space Policy
Rep. Bridenstine is planning a new bill to restructure both military and civil space. I gave him a copy of the book a year ago. I wonder if it influenced him?
Cislunar 1000
A new, visionary video from ULA.
It’s great to see this kind of vision from a major player. Tory Bruno really seems to have shaken the place up. And compare this to the paltry offering from NASA. Also note: Look ma, no SLS!
Writing A Constitution
…for Mars.
They seem to be a little confused about positive versus negative rights. You may have a right to leave, but you can’t demand that someone else pay for it. A “right to oxygen”? Not obvious how to handle that one. The solution to how to overthrow a tyrannical government is, of course, a Second Amendment.
[Wednesday-morning update]
Can a democracy exist on Mars?
…naive, wishful thinking seems to underpin all of the very hard questions about what governance and daily life on Mars might possibly look like. One reason could be the participants: the organizer of these events is an astrobiologist, and they seem to have gotten their insight into politics from writers like Stephen Baxter. This is not a dig against either men — astrobiology is an incredibly interesting subject, and I love Baxter’s books — but they are not experts in governance or nation-building (which is what a colony will be). There is, luckily, an entire field of academic study devoted to these questions: academics who have spent decades understanding how and why regimes can be resisted, how to build new nations, and so on. They don’t seem to have been included in this discussion.
Instead it looks like most other efforts at imagining space colonies: well meaning but ultimately naive technocrats imagining a western technocratic society as the best structure. And just like with Musk’s concept of a Mars colony, the serious economic issues at play here, which are a big deal in designing any society, are ignored. They assume it will be a mostly-deregulated libertarian economic system, again despite the inescapable fact that any space colony will have to concern itself primary with generating enough air and water to keep everyone alive. It is utterly baffling.
As he notes, tech people aren’t necessarily the best people to design a functional society.
SpaceX
They had a successful static fire at Vandenberg, in preparation for the JASON 3 launch on Sunday, with the last existing version 1.1. We may go up to Lompoc this weekend to watch.
Meanwhile, they just released a new edit of the landing video from December.
[Update a few minutes later]
Here‘s the story on the static firing.
The Virgin Galactic Mess
It’s not at all clear to me that it’s in their interest to stir this pot of merde with a lawsuit. I have no trouble believing that they’ve been overhyping safety, because it’s always appeared to be the case to anyone who understands rocketry. For example:
Virgin also advertised the “simplicity and safety” of SpaceShipTwo’s hybrid motor, claiming that the nitrous oxide and rubber used in it were “both benign, stable as well as containing none of the toxins found in solid rocket motors.”
This is a straw man, since few, if any, have ever proposed solids for passenger vehicles (other than NASA).
Basically, Branson made some disastrous business and technical decisions a decade ago, and it’s coming back to haunt him on an ongoing basis.
[Update a couple minutes later]
Related: An update on Spaceport America, who (along with the poor taxpayers of the two counties) was also sold a bill of goods by Branson.