Charlie Stross sees it.
What I found interesting, though, is how quickly the discussion in comments transitioned to how slow the progress has been in space access, with NASA taking a beating.
There is no question that space technology, with high-powered (megawatts/gigawatts) devices is fundamentally different than things that switch bits and electrons around, and it’s not reasonable to expect it to come close to Moore’s Law. But there’s also no question that, given different policies for the past half century, things could be much further along than they are. We may not (as Monte Davis noted in comments over there) have seen 2001: A Space Odyssey
by 2001, or even now, but we’d be on a lot clearer path to it, I think.
But that has never been a societal goal, even when we were pouring four percent of the federal budget (and doesn’t that make the NASA fanboys drool) into the problem during Apollo. We were just trying to beat the Russkies to the moon, and after we did that, we got preoccupied, and public-choice economics took over, as it always does when things aren’t important any more. And that’s the way it’s been ever since. But because of false myths promulgated during that era, it’s been tough to raise the money privately as well.
It won’t happen as fast as we’d like it to, nor will it happen as slowly as those who continue to cheer for government spaceflight expect, either. And most importantly, it will have trouble keeping up with the electronics singularity (though a lot of those advances will eventually accelerate space technology as well, and it will happen much sooner than most expect).
But I think that we are seeing real, measurable progress now, and I expect it to continue, and to continue to confound those who continue to cheer NASA five- and ten-year plans.