…isn’t the 2008 McCain campaign.

The 2012 Obama campaign seems to be run by Wile E. Axelrod, Sooper Genius. But wait! Wasn’t he involved in 2008, too?

I have never bought into the prevailing media myth, which is part of the media myth about Obama in general, that the 2008 campaign was brilliant, or even competent. Obama beat Hillary not because he had a great campaign, but because a lot of Dems were looking for an alternative to the “inevitable” Hillary, and they could avoid not being a sexist by not voting for her by being not a racist by voting for him (race trumps gender among Democrats). He won in the general, again not because there was anything good about his campaign, but because:

• The media refused to properly vet him, being too busy going through dumpsters in Wasilla to dig into things in Chicago (or even just to bother to read Chicago newspapers)
• Many found him charismatic (I never did)
• He turned out the youth vote in record numbers (unlikely to repeat this year)
• Everyone was tired of Republicans (the apathy expressed by the base still hadn’t recovered from 2006, because Bush was still president)
• There was no conservative enthusiasm for McCain
• McCain was an awful candidate
• McCain (or his campaign staff) ran an awful campaign, insufficiently aggressive, and actively sabotaging his only real asset — Sarah Palin, and last but not least
• Everyone was excited about the first black president, and proving that they weren’t racist

Few of those factors will apply this year. He’s no longer this inspirational charismatic cipher, but a failed president. They got voting for a black guy out of their system four years ago, and no longer feel a need to do it again to prove they’re not a racist (fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me). And in particular, the Romney campaign is going to take the gloves off (as they showed in the primaries). Not to mention that we’re heading into another downturn going into the election. I think that Obama’s toast.