My father, Dr. Dinkin Sr. author of Election Day: a Documentary History says that there has never been a VP who had this big an effect on the election–the most is about 5%. Further, that the last time a Party won that was behind in the polls after the second convention is 1964. Pressed he said 60-40 McCain. At intrade, McCain is trading at $0.52 for a security that pays $1 if he wins. Here’s what he’s trading at now (GMT):
If you smear lipstick on a pig, perhaps you have too much on.
Did Mark Murray think about what he was writing?
Palin could be heard nearly squealing with delight in the front of the plane at the sight of three of her children at the foot of the stairs, and according to several aides, refused to stay inside the plane.
Emphasis mine.
These numbers over at Gallup should have the donkeys very worried.
Democrats have held a large advantage on party identification for much of 2007 and 2008. But the GOP convention — and the exposure it gave to John McCain and Sarah Palin as the Republican ticket — has encouraged a greater number of Americans to identify as Republicans, thus narrowing the Democratic advantage for the moment.
Republicans saw an even larger increase in “leaned” party identification, which is computed by adding the percentage of Americans who initially identify themselves as independents but then say they “lean” to a party to the percentage who identify with that party. Before the GOP convention, 39% of Americans said they identified with or leaned to the Republican Party, but that number has increased to 47%. Forty-eight percent now identify with or lean to the Democratic Party, down from 53% prior to the GOP convention.
This is the Palin effect, and I think that it’s undone a lot of the damage that was done to the Republican brand that resulted in the 2006 losses. I wonder if a lot of the Republican legislators who decided to retire this year are having second thoughts?
These numbers also explain why Gallup has McCain leading, while Rasmussen has the race tied. Rasmussen hasn’t adjusted his mix yet–I think that it’s based on a three-month rolling average, and the recent shift in the political tide isn’t showing up yet, and won’t until just before the election.
Pork maven Iowahawk has some fun facts. Be sure to follow the links.
From one Democrat to others: lay off Palin.
They won’t take it, though. They can’t help themselves. They’re too arrogant, and think that they’re smarter than their political opponents. They also think that they understand conservatives and Republicans, when they’re completely clueless, as Mr. Sapp points out. So they’ll continue to dig themselves a deeper hole.
[Update a few minutes later]
See? They can’t stop: they’re equating Sarah Palin with Osama bin Laden.
[Update a while later]
Jeeeez. Now Sarah Palin isn’t a woman.
Who knew? Sure fooled me.
James Pethokoukis thinks so. So do I.
And as he notes, if there’s a Palin bubble, it’s unlikely to pop before the election, given that it took a year and a half for Obama’s to do so…
This is why I’ve never thought Obama electable, though I hadn’t accounted for Sarah. But she just means that there will be coatskirt-tails…
Which will be a good thing in the Senate.
Republicans are stereotyped for not endorsing evolution, endangering children.
Democrats are stereotyped for not endorsing evolution of endangered species.
…of Neal Stephenson.
Jim Manzi isn’t impressed with John McCain’s energy policy. The best that can be said of it is that it’s slightly better than Obama’s.
Can they close the gap? It’s possible (though it seems unlikely) that they could have a successful Falcon 9 launch before a successful Falcon 1 launch. They don’t seem to be letting Falcon 1 problems slow down the Falcon 9 schedule.