It hasn’t been that big a deal for me here in Boca. Windy and rainy, but nothing damaged, and not so windy that I can’t go outside. We lost power this morning for a few minutes, but not long enough to knock down the computers on the UPS. And the pool is full, which is always good.
McCain’s Space Advice
Well, now we know what the “space experts” told John McCain yesterday up in Titusville.
As I noted in my piece at PJM, the options aren’t very pretty. The lowest risk course is to continue Shuttle past 2010, but to keep this option open, they have to take some immediate actions to keep production open on consumables, such as ETs. As I’ve noted before, it’s ironic that they’re shutting the system down just as they’ve finally wrung most of the bugs out of it. It still remains horrifically expensive, of course, but no more so than Ares/Orion, and it has a lot more capability. I think that the “recertification” issue is a red herring. Just because the CAIB recommended it doesn’t mean that it makes any sense, since no one knows what it really means. Nothing magical happens in 2010 that makes it suddenly unsafe to fly. That date was chosen as the earliest one that they could retire and still complete ISS, not on the basis that anything was worn or wearing out. They could just continue to fly, and do periodic inspections.
I found it interesting, but not surprising, that Lafitte recommended an acceleration of Ares. It would be more in his company’s interest to just give up on it and use Atlas, but I suspect that would be too politically incorrect to say with reporters around. He has to live with Mike Griffin for at least another few months.
What would I do if I were king? I’d stop buying Soyuz, and keep the Shuttle flying, I’d abandon Ares/Orion, and provide huge incentives to the private sector by establishing prop depots and paying good money for prop delivery. That would require more money than people want to spend, but we’d get a lot more robust transportation infrastructure, ready to go to either the moon or Mars (or other destinations) at a lot lower mission cost than NASA’s current plans. It’s what we would do if space were really important. But of course, it’s not, so we won’t.
McCain’s Space Response?
I’d like to know who those “twenty hand-picked space experts” are. Unfortunately, I’ll bet that one of them is Walt Cunningham. But at least he won’t be the only one.
It’s That Time Of The Week Again
Lileks takes on Keillor. Again.
Every column now ends with on-marching truth. But what’s this thing about the rich and privileged saying it’s not a great country? I hear more distaste and dismay about America from one Senator than the other; I hear more disdain from cosseted movie stars than I hear from ordinary folk; I hear more grumpy, costive old burbling about the dark hole into which America has fallen from a rich and privileged Old Scout than I hear from, say, middle-class bloggers who get 40 hits a day but happen to love the actual country we have as opposed to the theoretical variant which Keillor believes is right around the corner. Next week: an attack, probably, on the smug, self-righteous rich and privileged, who think America’s just great. At least we know how that one will end: truth, marching, et cetera.
I think that Keillor has attained that unblessed state that no one dare edit him. Thankfully, we have Lileks.
Ignorance Of America
Frequent commenter “Fletcher Christian” is a poster child for this phenomenon. And as one of the commenters at Glenn’s post notes, the BBC is largely responsible.
An Attack By The Real Fascists
Over at Amy Alkon’s place.
Articulate?
Everyone (including Joe Biden, who also thinks he’s “clean”) says that Barack Obama is articulate. I’ve never seen any evidence of it, and there was apparently plenty of counterevidence at the Rick Warren thing. Being good at reading a teleprompter is not the same thing as being “articulate.”
Casualty Of War?
I have a piece up at Pajamas Media this morning on the potential effect of Russia’s renewed belligerence on the US space program.
I should note that I may have been a little too sanguine about the situation for the current ISS crew. While the RSA astronauts in Expedition 17 weren’t born in Russia, it’s possible that they are Russians, and sympathetic to Russia, given the way that Russia had colonized the Ukraine and Turkmen Republic and moved populations of Russians in there. It’s all really speculation. Only the crew really know what the atmosphere is up there.
Scaled Brings in SpaceDev Again
SpaceDev has announced Scaled Composites has selected them to develop a hybrid motor for SpaceShipTwo in a $15 million contract. The point that SpaceDev was selected (not down-selected) in SpaceShipOne development was 3.25 years before winning the Ansari X-Prize. This is consistent with the duration announced for the development contract for SpaceShipTwo’s rocket motor of “through 2012” with work “primarily completed over the next two years”. SpaceShipTwo will likely burn rubber getting to suborbital space.
To Shutter, Or Not To Shutter?
I don’t have to decide today–it looks like it will still be far enough away tomorrow morning, with a better track, to make the decision then. Right now, I’m inclined not to, even though we’re still in the uncertainty cone (but over at the eastern edge of it). Most of the models, other than GFDL, have the thing out in the Gulf or along the west coast of the state. We are on a tropical storm watch on the east coast from Jupiter south, but that’s all.
The best outcome overall (other than completely falling apart) would be for it to come up through the swamp and run up the middle of the state, where it would weaken pretty quickly. If it stays out in the Gulf and hits farther north, it could intensify and really pound wherever it comes ashore. Either way, though, barring some dramatic shift in conditions, it looks like we’re in for rain and tropical-force winds, at worst, over here on the east coast. That’s a lot better than it looked a few days ago, when it looked like it might have come right at us through the Bahamas.
[Early afternoon update]
Well that’s good news. Jeff Masters says that this won’t be another Charley, despite the similarity in track. One thing that I notice a lot of the weather people talking about are the sea surface temperatures, but they are ignoring the fact that the upper-level winds aren’t that favorable for intensification.
[Update at 4:30 PM EDT]
The latest model run (2 PM) has moved it farther to the west, which is bad news for the panhandle, but good news for south Florida. Unless they’re all wrong, this thing isn’t heading to southeast Florida, and we may not even get much in the way of wind, though we could use the rain. There’s actually an outer band moving through Miami-Dade on the radar right now. Hope it makes it up through Broward and into south Palm Beach County.
[5 PM update]
Heh. The headline of one of the stories over at Accuweather is “Florida Approaching Land.”
A lot of people who bought swampland down here probably wish that it would do it faster. Now, if they could just give the place a few mountains. Or even hills.
In “The Swamp
Obviously, it was supposed to be “Fay,” not “Florida.”
[Update a few minutes later]
That was quick. Good thing I caught the screenshot. It now says “Fay Approaching Land.”
[Update about 6 PM EDT]
OK, it looks like shuttering tomorrow is definitely off the table. The track, per the models I described above, no longer has us even within the cone. I expect some wind and rain (which we need) but nothing more at this point. The only preparation I did this weekend was to fill up the tank of the car, and it looks like that’s all I’m going to do for Fay.
But the hurricane season is still young, and we’re heading into the heart of it. It’s particularly problematic because I’m going to be in LA for the last week of August and the first week of September, which is one of the highest-probability times for major storms here. I may have to shutter up before I leave, just as a precaution.
[Update a half hour later]
The first squall line from the storm is approaching. Unfortunately, I don’t have a camera handy, but it’s looking ugly to the south, and the winds are picking up (and the local radar confirms it). We just put in a new tree, which needs watering every day. I’ve put off doing it all day, in anticipation of this.
[Tuesday morning update]
We didn’t actually get much rain from that squall line last night, but about 8:30 this morning, the heavens opened up. The rain’s been hard and steady for an hour now. Guess I didn’t need to water that satin leaf.
I should note that Brendan Loy’s Weather Nerd blog is the go-to place for blogging the storm.
As he notes, it’s kind of good news, bad news. The good news is that it’s shifted eastward, and will hit Florida sooner, which means it won’t have much time to develop. The bad news (for me) is that it will affect the east coast much more than anticipated. Hope I won’t regret not shuttering, because it’s too late to do so now, unless I want to attempt it in wind and rain. The rains have come sooner than I expected, and a wind gust has already blown off a down spout that I hadn’t properly tied to the wall. If I get a break, I might try to fix it later today, though it’s not a big problem–just blasting water against the front wall.