Back To The Drawing Board

Lileks:

I just remembered that I called the Bob Davis show this morning to talk about the new theory re: Moses and the Ten Commandments: dude was high. Apparently a professor somewhere has suggested that the entire experience was the result of a mushroom or some such ceremonial intoxicant. I called to say I didn’t believe it, because if Moses was tripping we wouldn’t have ten commandments. We would have three. The first would make sense, more or less; the second, written half an hour later, would command profound respect for lizards who sit on stones and look at you, because they’re freaking incredible when you think about it, and the third would be gibberish. Never mind the problem of getting the tablets down the mountain – anyone who has experience of watching stoners try to assemble pizza money when the doorbell rings doubts that Moses could have hauled stone tablets all the way down.

“Steny Hoyer Didn’t Get The Memo”

This is highlarious. I liked this comment:

And we wonder why democrats can’t get a damn thing done.

Every answer they give to a question sounds like a 16 year-old kid standing in front of a clerk at a liquor store trying to remember the address and birthdate on his fake ID he just acquired from some smelly hippy from the wrong side of the tracks.

I hope to God (whatever that is to you) that someone writes a period piece on the democratic-controlled house and calls it “Lessons in Stupid – the Pelosi years.”

“Steny Hoyer Didn’t Get The Memo”

This is highlarious. I liked this comment:

And we wonder why democrats can’t get a damn thing done.

Every answer they give to a question sounds like a 16 year-old kid standing in front of a clerk at a liquor store trying to remember the address and birthdate on his fake ID he just acquired from some smelly hippy from the wrong side of the tracks.

I hope to God (whatever that is to you) that someone writes a period piece on the democratic-controlled house and calls it “Lessons in Stupid – the Pelosi years.”

“Steny Hoyer Didn’t Get The Memo”

This is highlarious. I liked this comment:

And we wonder why democrats can’t get a damn thing done.

Every answer they give to a question sounds like a 16 year-old kid standing in front of a clerk at a liquor store trying to remember the address and birthdate on his fake ID he just acquired from some smelly hippy from the wrong side of the tracks.

I hope to God (whatever that is to you) that someone writes a period piece on the democratic-controlled house and calls it “Lessons in Stupid – the Pelosi years.”

Super Sizing

Elizabeth Karmel has some thoughts on barbecue:

Restaurateurs don’t necessarily want you to eat the whole thing; they are giving us what we’ve asked for. Americans don’t like restaurants that serve small portions. Whether they eat it all or should eat it all is another matter; consumers vote with their dollars and like it or not, American consumers love and buy big portions.

I’ve discussed this before, but the reason that restaurants serve so much food is related to the reason that the Space Shuttle (and space launch in general) cost so much. How’s that for a topic segue? It always comes down to marginal cost.

The Space Shuttle is expensive per flight, because they have to support all of the overhead in Houston and the Cape, but fly very few times. But the marginal cost (the cost of flying the next Shuttle flight, given that you’re already flying) is probably about a hundred fifty million or so (the cost of the expended hardware, basically, and specific crew training) which is much less than that average cost (typically well over half a billion). Same thing applies to the space station. Back in the nineties (before Freedom became ISS) they were trying to cut five billion dollars out of the projected thirty-billion dollar development budget. Joe Talbot, the man at Langley who was tasked with coming up with a plan to do so, told me (in an exasperated tone), “that’s the cost of the hardware.” In other words, they could cut out the hardware, and only spend twenty-five billion, and have no station at all. Or they could spend a little more money (thirty-five billion instead of thirty billion) and double its size. Being a government program, the budget cutters tend to make more of the former sorts of decisions than the latter ones.

It’s different for a business, even though the economic issues are exactly the same, because they’re driven by actual customers.

Even if a restaurant served you no food at all, if all you did was come in and take up table space and staff time for a certain period of time, they’d still have to charge you quite a bit, because much of the cost of a restaurant meal is overhead to cover costs of rent, utilities, staff salaries, etc. The cost of the food itself (unless it’s a very high-end restaurant, where you’re eating lobster, and filet, and larks-tongue bisque with a truffle reduction) isn’t all that much. They could cut the portions in half, but they wouldn’t be able to cut the price of the meal by half. Conversely (and this is what the market drives, as Elizabeth says), they can double the portions while adding very little to the price. That’s the economics behind “super sizing” soft drinks and fries–you’re simply adding a little sugar and spuds, which are very cheap, to the meal whose overhead has already been covered by the basic order.

And of course, I think that one of the (many) causes of the obesity epidemic in the country is the fact that as we’ve grown wealthier, we go out to eat a lot more. When the portions are large, you’re going to have a tendency to eat it. A lot of us would be better off simply sharing a meal with our dinner companions, but the restaurants discourage this, for obvious reasons–they don’t get enough to cover their overhead costs if everyone does it. When you’re cooking for yourself, you not only have a better idea of the cost of the meal, because you’re using food that you purchased, but it’s also easier to quit eating and just put the leftovers in the fridge, rather than have to ask for a doggie bag and hope that you get it home soon enough.

Bottom line, if you really want to lose weight (and save money) don’t eat out.

[Update]

There’s a good point in comments:

I have these same problems cooking for myself. It’s hard to buy things in quantities for one or two portions. You end up with three or four servings…. (Re: try to cook a real meal for one).

Yeah, that’s another overhead problem. Unless you’re making something fancy where individual items are being created (e.g., home-made ravioli) or labor intensive (peeling/deveining shrimp) it doesn’t take much more effort to cook for two, or four, than for one. The basic overhead of meal preparation is the same. It takes me about half a minute to clean/cut a potato, so adding a couple more for a lot more mashed potatoes, all done in the same mixing bowl, is no big deal, and baking a chicken is baking a chicken, whether for one of four. This is one of the benefits of marriage (or at least cohabiting).

I cook dinner almost every night, but interestingly, I rarely cook breakfast, because it seems like a lot of work, (frying bacon, making coffee, sectioning grapefruit, hashing browns, frying eggs, making/buttering toast, most of which all has to come out about the same time) for not that great a meal. I would never do it just for myself, and with the two of us, I still generally reserve it for weekends.

Another good point, from the same comment:

…the combo of A and B has been sending me to fast food format restaurants. I can pay little and buy by the item (re: any portion size I want). If I only want one chicken taco… I can buy one chicken taco (probably for $1-$2)… If I want two or three, they can do that too…

I’ve been noticing that, too. I’ve never ordered a “meal” at a fast food place, because they don’t have anything I want to drink (I don’t do soft drinks, and don’t like iced tea–in restaurants, if I don’t have beer or wine, I drink water). I generally order a sandwich a la carte, and sometimes a small fry. But I’ve seen that Taco Bell has a lot of individual, reasonably priced items, and other places have “dollar menus” as well, so perhaps they’re also trying to satisfy that end of the market. One of my favorites is Checker’s (around here, anyway, also known as Rally’s in some parts of the country), where they sell a double fish sandwich for a little over two bucks. There are enough customers that they can afford to sell them to those who want them without fully amortizing the overhead, or if they do, at low margin, and it expands their potential customer base.

One other point. It used to be that Mexican restaurants were one of the best ones to have for exactly this reasons. You could charge a low price for a meal with very cheap ingredients (corn meal, ground…meat, rice and beans), but still have great margins. A lot of them have started to get greedy lately, though. You used to be able to find a really cheap, decent hole-in-the-wall Mexican place, but it’s getting harder and harder, at least in my experience. Of course, since moving to south Florida, I don’t have as much variety to choose from as I did in LA.

[Update at 5:20 PM EST]

This is another good point from a commenter:

Cooking for one or two can be done, but it involves cooking for four and freezing for three.

Yup. I’ve made a big pan of lasagna for myself (used to do it a lot in college). Eat some, put some in the fridge, freeze the rest. And this was in the pre-microwave (at least for struggling students) days.

[6 PM update]

One other point, that I should have made in the original post. The things that get supersized (high-glycemic carbs) are not just the cheapest things to add to the meal, they’re the worst things for us to eat, from the standpoint of weight gain, inducement of diabetes and increase in artery risk. And the things that we need more of (proteins) are relatively expensive. The basic economics of food (at least at the current state of technology) militates against a healthy diet. This is also one of the reasons that the “poor” in this country are both overweight and malnourished (scare quotes because “poor” is relative. No one in the US is truly poor, compared to much of the world).

Space Arms Control Speech

Would a ban on space weaponry be verifiable? It seems intuitively obvious to me that the answer is “no.”

I think that this is a key point:

The President’s Space Policy highlights our national and, indeed the global, dependence on space. The Chinese interception only underscored the vulnerability of these critical assets. Calling for arms control measures can often appear to be a desirable approach to such problems. Unfortunately, “feel good” arms control that constrains our ability to seek real remedies to the vulnerabilities that we face has the net result of harming rather than enhancing U.S. and international security and well-being.

I always trust hardware over paper and good intentions.

With Friends Like This…

…private spaceflight doesn’t need any enemies. Here’s a proposal from the Prometheus Institute, a libertarian think tank in California. It’s got a lot of problems.

China, already having put a human into space, further demonstrated its celestial capabilities by recently shooting down an orbiting satellite. To Washington’s Sinophobic lobby already hopped-up about inflated currency and devious trade practices, the Chinaman’s aerospace belligerence seemed to be cause for grave apprehension.

But America should not be afraid – far from it. Instead, we should be celebrating the advancement. Just like air travel in its infancy, space travel is a technology now finding its way from rich world governments and militaries to civilians around the world. And just like air travel, market competition should lead the progress.

Yes, let us celebrate the ability of the Chinese to obliterate our satellites. And maybe I missed all the “civilians” in China who are not traveling into space.

NASA, America’s space program, currently enjoys a government-created-and-backed monopoly privilege and is, along with our military, the only American entity that legally ventures into space.

For all his appreciation of private enterprise, you’d think that this guy would know that all launches other than the Shuttle are private launches. And they’re all performed legally, as licensed by the FAA.

The first space-tourist, American millionaire Dennis Tito, doled out $20 million from his own coffers to the Russian authorities for the ability to go to space with their Cosmonauts. Tito chose Russia only because NASA first rejected his proposal to fly with them on the grounds that he was not a trained astronaut. Thus, in an embarrassing bit of irony, America’s refusal to fly Capitalism’s Neil Armstrong means that the only “commercial” space carrier currently available in the world is in the former Soviet Union. (And as is true of all government-sanctioned monopolies, especially Russian ones, they charge a hefty price.) But the tide of private competition is finally turning.

None other than Virgin’s Sir Richard Branson wants to be the first to offer sub-orbital flights to the general public. Currently, his White Knight Two and the Space Ship Two spacecrafts are scheduled to undergo a test flight program later this year and then finally launch commercial operations approximately a year later. Tickets start at $200,000, or 1% of the going Russian price. Now, if one competitor can reduce the cost of space travel this drastically, imagine the result when America’s entrepreneurial craft is truly unleashed.

He’s comparing apples to omelettes. Virgin is not going to reduce the cost of going to orbit by two orders of magnitude, as is implied here. The twenty million is for a trip to an orbital space station of several days. The two hundred kilobucks is for a few minutes in suborbit. So the fare is a lot less, yes, but so is the service. He even says himself that it is “sub-orbital.” I don’t know whether he’s being clueless, or deliberately misleading here, but either way, it severely undermines his thesis in a way that will be sure to be justifiably attacked by the NASA fanboyz.

But wait! It gets better! Or worse, depending on your point of view:

America should facilitate the progress toward private space travel. First, Congress should dissolve America’s space monopoly by transferring NASA from government to private ownership.

Sure. Just hand it over to private ownership. Why didn’t we think of that?

I wonder who he thinks would take it over? Does he have any idea how much you’d have to pay anyone sane to take NASA off the government’s hands? It not only has no market value–it has negative market value. The auction would be based on whoever was willing to take the least amount of ongoing taxpayer subsidy to keep the mess going.

Second, Congress should ensure efficient entry into the space travel market, levelling the competitive field for any investor or entrepreneur, thus ensuring that no one is granted privileges or exemptions that favor one over the other.

Here is the kind of simplistic proposal that was made for the phrase, “the devil’s in the details.”

He goes on:

The government should gradually auction off each project, to ensure an orderly transition to private control, and to also make sure they do not land into the hands of a few oligarchs at Abramovich, Khodorkovsky & Co. From the outset, this policy would provide for competition and a certain degree of specialization. Those NASA projects that truly fall under the umbrella of national security should be allocated to a branch of the U.S. military, which is where they originally belonged anyway.

As is the reality in every other industry, we should let the scientists, pioneers and entrepreneurs compete in the marketplace, instead of in the halls of Congress, and let the consumer decide to whom the share of the pie shall go. As recent experience has shown, competition in the marketplace lowers prices and increases consumer choice, and will continue to do so over time.

Where to start?

Most of the projects that are described here simply will not happen if the government doesn’t fund them. The market is either non-existent, or too diffuse, for them to get private funding, given their cost. If one wants to argue that they’re a poor use of federal dollars, that’s an interesting discussion, but to assume that they’ll simply go out and get funded in the private marketplace displays a naivety that could only be found in a libertarian “think” tank.

If this is the quality of “thinking” that goes on at Prometheus, if I were a donor, I’d demand my money back.

RSS Fixed

I think that I’ve got the RSS feed working now, over to the left. If someone wants to try it, let me know if there’s still a problem.

[Update a few minutes later]

Whoops. Guess not. Ive no idea what the problem is.

Anti-Cleric Revolt?

This seems like good news, if true:

“In the beginning, they gave their eyes and minds to the clerics; they trusted them,” said Abu Mahmoud, a moderate Sunni cleric in Baghdad, who now works deprogramming religious extremists in American detention. “It’s painful to admit, but it’s changed. People have lost too much. They say to the clerics and the parties: You cost us this.”

“When they behead someone, they say ‘Allahu akbar,’ they read Koranic verse,” said a moderate Shiite sheik from Baghdad, using the phrase for “God is great.”

“The young people, they think that is Islam,” he said. “So Islam is a failure, not only in the students’ minds, but also in the community.”

A professor at Baghdad University’s School of Law, who identified herself only as Bushra, said of her students: “They have changed their views about religion. They started to hate religious men. They make jokes about them because they feel disgusted by them.”

If militant Islam is the enemy, this seems like a victory to me. Let’s try to spread the infection throughout the Muslim world.

Biting Commentary about Infinity…and Beyond!