What If The Singularity Doesn’t Happen?

Some thoughts from Vernor Vinge himself.

What’s a real space program … and what’s not

  • From 1957 to circa 1980 we humans did some proper pioneering in space. We (I mean brilliant engineers and scientists and brave explorers) established a number of near-Earth applications that are so useful that they can be commercially successful even at launch costs to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) of $5000 to $10000/kg. We also undertook a number of human and robotic missions that resolved our greatest uncertainties about the Solar System and travel in space.
  • From 1980 till now? Well, launch to LEO still runs $5000 to $10000/kg. As far as I can tell, the new Vision for Space Exploration will maintain these costs. This approach made some sense in 1970, when we were just beginning and when initial surveys of the problems and applications were worth almost any expense. Now, in the early 21st century, these launch costs make talk of humans-in-space a doubly gold-plated sham:
    • First, because of the pitiful limitations on delivered payloads, except at prices that are politically impossible (or are deniable promises about future plans).
    • Second, because with these launch costs, the payloads must be enormously more reliable and compact than commercial off-the-shelf hardware

What If The Singularity Doesn’t Happen?

Some thoughts from Vernor Vinge himself.

What’s a real space program … and what’s not

  • From 1957 to circa 1980 we humans did some proper pioneering in space. We (I mean brilliant engineers and scientists and brave explorers) established a number of near-Earth applications that are so useful that they can be commercially successful even at launch costs to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) of $5000 to $10000/kg. We also undertook a number of human and robotic missions that resolved our greatest uncertainties about the Solar System and travel in space.
  • From 1980 till now? Well, launch to LEO still runs $5000 to $10000/kg. As far as I can tell, the new Vision for Space Exploration will maintain these costs. This approach made some sense in 1970, when we were just beginning and when initial surveys of the problems and applications were worth almost any expense. Now, in the early 21st century, these launch costs make talk of humans-in-space a doubly gold-plated sham:
    • First, because of the pitiful limitations on delivered payloads, except at prices that are politically impossible (or are deniable promises about future plans).
    • Second, because with these launch costs, the payloads must be enormously more reliable and compact than commercial off-the-shelf hardware

Not Just In Denial

I think that Harry Reid is living in an alternate universe:

“Who’s winning?” Reid asked a group of reporters. “Big Oil, Big Tobacco. … Al Qaeda has regrouped and is able to fight a civil war in Iraq. … The American people are losing.”

I’m pretty sure that he’s the most incompetent and idiotic Senate Majority Leader in my lifetime, and that’s saying something. And I thought that Tom Daschle was bad. If I were a Democrat, I’d be embarrassed.

The Top Ten

stupid criminals of 2007.

Isn’t this a little premature? There are still a couple weeks left in the year. One or two of them could still get edged out.

Of course, I’m not sure that any of them top this guy:

Earl Mott: Did you just shoot at me?

Ken Kessler: No, there’s police men everywhere.

Earl Mott: Do you think that I look that stupid?

Ken Kessler: Yes, you do!

Lt. Bender: GIVE THE BAG TO BOZO, DROP THE GUN, AND PUT YOUR HANDS IN THE AIR.

Earl Mott: Who said that?

Lt. Walters: This could very well be the stupidest person on the face of the earth. Perhaps we should shoot him.

Lt. Bender: IT’S THE POLICE DEPARTMENT.

Earl Mott: Really?

Lt. Bender: NO! WE’RE THE NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION!

Voice Of God Ray

There’s apparently a military application for what I thought was an advertising technology:

It appears that some of the troops in Iraq are using “spoken” (as opposed to “screeching”) LRAD to mess with enemy fighters. Islamic terrorists tend to be superstitious and, of course, very religious. LRAD can put the “word of God” into their heads. If God, in the form of a voice that only you can hear, tells you to surrender, or run away, what are you gonna do?

What’s cool about this weapon is that it’s one that will be particularly effective with this enemy. If it happened to me, the voice of God isn’t the first theory that I would come up with, since I’m an unbeliever, but with these guys, it probably would be.

Biting Commentary about Infinity…and Beyond!