A Split In The Jihad Movement?

Some interesting, and little reported activities in Waziristan and the Pakistan/Afghanistan border:

You may remember a couple of months ago a report that al Qaeda and its affiliates had abandoned their training camps in Pakistan along the Afghan border. The initial report caused quite a blog storm but soon the mystery was forgotten. According to AI, which links to references for all of this, the US got fed up with not being able to reach al Qaeda inside Pakistan. Then a few months back the US government told the Pakistani government that we had the coordinates for twenty-nine terror training bases and in a week we will be destroying them (perhaps on Cheney’s visit this summer). The intent was to drive the terrorists from those camps so we could get to them.

It worked. That’s why those camps emptied out.

So the US left the terrorists an escape route into Tora Bora. Once they had detected a large group of al Qaeda at the fortress and the likelihood of High Value Targets as determined by large scale security detachments, the US dropped the curtain on the escape routes back into Pakistan. We have been pounding the hell out of them for weeks in near complete secrecy.

But an observer may wonder why, if al Qaeda had to vacate the camps, didn’t they just go to other hideouts in Pakistan? According to this article in the Telegraph:

The Uzbeks are a surviving remnant of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, an al-Qa’eda affiliate that fought with the Taliban against the Americans in 2001.

Its surviving members fled into Pakistan’s lawless tribal belt where earlier this year their hosts turned against them following a dispute. Afghan leaders say that the Uzbeks were recently given the choice to fight the Americans in Afghanistan or face annihilation by the local tribes.

At least one sizeable group of al-Qa’eda and Taliban fighters is continuing to resist despite heavy bombing raids and attacks from US Special Forces. American military spokesmen declined to corroborate the claim, saying the operation was ongoing.

As a reminder, “Uzbeks” is a synonym for al Qaeda in the Pakistani border region and what the locals call all foreign jihadists. So the reporting from Pakistan earlier this year was spot on. Some powerful Taliban leaders have turned on al Qaeda and when their terror camps were targeted by the US they had nowhere else to go.

I blame George Bush.

A Problem With Our Priorities

Bjorn Lomborg:

Why are we so singularly focused on climate change when there are many other areas where the need is also great and we could do so much more with our effort?

He explains. (Hint: it has more to do with saving our souls than with saving the planet.)

[Update a few minutes later]

Funny, Saint Al doesn’t seem willing to debate the issue.

Not surprising to me. He’s not the brightest bulb on the string, and probably wouldn’t hold up very well to people who actually understand it.

And no, contra comments, this is not an expression of “hate for Al Gore.” It’s simply a dispassionate assessment of his intelligence, particularly considering that he flunked out of divinity school. How dim do you have to be to manage that?

LAN Driver Question

So, I downloaded the latest driver from RealTek to attempt to solve my problem. I removed the old r8169 with rmmod, but when I do a “make clean modules” from within the directory with the Makefile, I get the following errors:

make -C src/ clean
make[1]: Entering directory `/root/temp/r8169-6.003.00/src’
rm -rf *.o *.ko *~ core* .dep* .*.d .*.cmd *.mod.c *.a *.s .*.flags .tmp_versions Module.symvers rset
make[1]: Leaving directory `/root/temp/r8169-6.003.00/src’
make -C src/ modules
make[1]: Entering directory `/root/temp/r8169-6.003.00/src’
make -C /lib/modules/2.6.18-1.2798.fc6/build SUBDIRS=/root/temp/r8169-6.003.00/src modules
make: Entering an unknown directory
make: Leaving an unknown directory
make[1]: Leaving directory `/root/temp/r8169-6.003.00/src’

Can anyone tell me what’s going on? Do I have to have untarred the files into some specific directory?

[Update a few minutes later]

Well, this is kind of discouraging news:

Beware:

EADS Sub Orbital Business Case?

Michael Belfiore reviews the EADS idea of building a suborbital business jet. At the $1.3 billion price tag and unit cost presumably in the high tens of millions, the business case is iffy. In particular, it would probably be a lot cheaper to spin out the Rocketplane XP project out of Rocketplane Kistler and end up with a product that could fly a few years sooner and more seats for the same money.

The Futron study Jeff implicitly cited saying 15,000 customers for suborbital space travel in 2015. If we get 4 providers, it’s hard to see how prices stay much above the marginal cost of the fourth provider. RpK and XCOR might have revised their cost estimates since they were estimated as south of $50,000 back when Space Adventures were selling suborbital seats for $100k each. But let’s be generous and say that EADS rivals are going to push the price down to $100k by 2015. This is lower than the implicit Futron estimate of $140k if flight starts in 2009, spends 3 years at $200k then works it’s way down to $50k in 2021.

At $100k, they could get perhaps $50k in debt payments per seat. They would need 6,500 customers per year to pay 25% interest and 9,400 customers per year to pay back the loan in 9 years. But they are unlikely to get 2/3 of the market if they are fourth to market with a higher price structure. If EADS is indeed the high cost provider, the estimate of how much each flight will contribute to debt repayment is $0. The capacity required to fly 9,400 customers per year at two flights per week per craft with four seats is 23 craft which would add another billion in debt if they are $45 million each.

Biting Commentary about Infinity…and Beyond!