General

So Far, So Good

Yesterday was the statistical peak of hurricane season, and we haven’t even had to consider putting up the shutters yet this year, at least in south Florida. Of course, I’m probably speaking too soon.

[Update mid morning]

Is Humberto about to form? It’s still too far out to worry about it, but this is the first potential storm that I’ve seen this season that any models indicate could eventually target Florida. But it could also head south like Dean and Felix did, or up into the Atlantic and affect no one, as so many storms did last year. Here’s more from Jeff Masters:

I expect this will allow 91L to develop into a tropical depression on Thursday. The HWRF brings it to a Category 3 hurricane by Sunday, at a position near 19N 58W, about 500 miles east-northeast of Puerto Rico. This is too aggressive an intensification rate, but I expect 91L will be at least a strong tropical storm by Sunday. The 06Z run of the GFDL model is more believable, making 91L a 55 mph tropical storm about 800 miles east of Puerto Rico on Sunday. This storm is definitely a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands. It is too early to say if the northern islands are more at risk, as the current model runs are indicating. The system may represent a threat to the U.S. East Coast ten or more days from now, but there is no way to judge the likelihood of this.

I’m going to LA on Sunday for the week, and Patricia will be up in Orlando. It will be just our luck if the hurricane comes while we’re out of town and can’t prepare for it. I may be putting up shutters on Saturday, depending on what the track look like.

And this is a little disturbing:

Wind shear the past 11 days (Figure 3) has been below normal over most of the MDR. These conditions are expected to continue over at least the next two weeks, according to the latest forecast from the GFS model. African dust activity has been quite low the past month, and I don’t see any changes to the general circulation pattern that would change this. Steering current patterns are expected to remain the same as we’ve seen since since late July, with a series of weak troughs and ridges rippling across the Atlantic, and no major troughs or ridges locking into place. This steering pattern favors a near-normal chance of hurricane strikes for the entire Atlantic. Due to the weak nature of the troughs of low pressure expected, we’ll have fewer recurving storms that miss land than normal. Indeed, all but one of the seven named storms we’ve had this year have affected land (Chantal was the exception).

Even though we’re past theoretical peak, it could be a long season.

Political Commentary

The More Things Change

Miss the rampant corruption of the Clinton years? Have no fear–it will be back if Hillary! is elected. Look forward to more sleepovers for campaign cash in the Lincoln bedroom.

Before the announcement, new evidence surfaced that the Clinton camp had dismissed allegations about Hsu made by a Southern California businessman. In an e-mail obtained by The Times, a Clinton campaign staffer told a California Democratic Party official in June that the businessman’s concerns were unwarranted.

“I can tell you with 100 certainty that Norman Hsu is NOT involved in a ponzi scheme,” wrote Samantha Wolf, who was a campaign finance director for the Western states.”He is COMPLETELY legit.”

In fact, Hsu was a fugitive wanted on a 15-year-old bench warrant stemming from an early 1990s investment fraud case.

And for all the talk about competence and cronyism of Bush appointees, apparently people forget that Hillary hired a former bar bouncer as head of White House security, though she denied it, instead blaming it on the dead guy (of which there were too many in the Clinton administration).

In interviews, the first lady has denied any involvement with Livingstone’s hire, and Nussbaum testified under oath to House investigators on June 26 that he was not involved. Just who hired Livingstone was not quickly established, although White House officials eventually said late White House attorney Vincent Foster brought him in.

But I guess we’re not supposed to point out things like that. Only “Clinton haters” would do such a thing. Wonder if Hsu almost became another dead guy who could tell no tales? And what was he really running from?

Space

Not Over Until It’s Over

Well, apparently RpK isn’t quite dead yet–it’s only mostly dead. But as Billy Crystal noted, there’s a big difference between dead and mostly dead. Alan Boyle has the latest. Apparently, if the money is pulled back, it will be recompeted.

[Afternoon update]

Charles Lurio has some a thoughts on the potential damage that NASA’s COTS approach may have done to the industry in general.

Space

Not Over Until It’s Over

Well, apparently RpK isn’t quite dead yet–it’s only mostly dead. But as Billy Crystal noted, there’s a big difference between dead and mostly dead. Alan Boyle has the latest. Apparently, if the money is pulled back, it will be recompeted.

[Afternoon update]

Charles Lurio has some a thoughts on the potential damage that NASA’s COTS approach may have done to the industry in general.

Space

Not Over Until It’s Over

Well, apparently RpK isn’t quite dead yet–it’s only mostly dead. But as Billy Crystal noted, there’s a big difference between dead and mostly dead. Alan Boyle has the latest. Apparently, if the money is pulled back, it will be recompeted.

[Afternoon update]

Charles Lurio has some a thoughts on the potential damage that NASA’s COTS approach may have done to the industry in general.

Space

Missing The Point

This piece at today’s issue of The Space Review seems to be…incoherent.

I know that this isn’t something that someone in Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) wants to hear, but in fact safety should not be the highest priority of an agency charged with opening the final frontier to humankind.

The STS-5 decision was needed to solve a problem that seemed simple enough. With the first four flights of the Space Shuttle, only two

Biting Commentary about Infinity…and Beyond!