War Commentary

The Revolt Of The Tribes

A very interesting, sophisticated (and guardedly optimistic) analysis of the current situation in Iraq.

To understand what follows, you need to realize that Iraqi tribes are not somehow separate, out in the desert, or remote: rather, they are powerful interest groups that permeate Iraqi society. More than 85% of Iraqis claim some form of tribal affiliation; tribal identity is a parallel, informal but powerful sphere of influence in the community. Iraqi tribal leaders represent a competing power center, and the tribes themselves are a parallel hierarchy that overlaps with formal government structures and political allegiances. Most Iraqis wear their tribal selves beside other strands of identity (religious, ethnic, regional, socio-economic) that interact in complex ways, rendering meaningless the facile division into Sunni, Shi

Political Commentary

His Real Offense

I agree with Mark Danziger that, if for no other reason, Craig should resign for this:

According to the police report, the senator presented a business card and asked, “What do you think about that?”

Of course, it’s just one step beyond what most, if not all Senators do for special privileges. John Kerry was famous for his “Do you know who I am?” incidents to take cuts in line, get into restaurants, etc., which were apparently legion in Massachusetts, and other places. Senators (and Congresspeople) being human, are going to abuse their power for privilege, but an attempt to intimidate a law officer goes over a line.

[Update a few minutes later]

While I think that he should resign, I also think that this would be a perfectly appropriate response from him should he be asked by the press:

…if I were a Senator asked to vote to expel him from office, my public answer would be,

Space

Low Bid?

I’m kind of surprised (though pleasantly, if true) at the estimated cost of the contract to Boeing for the Ares 1 upper stage:

The $514.7 million cost-plus-award fee contract runs through 2016 and covers the manufacture of a ground test article, three flight test units and six production flight units.

So they’re getting about ten units altogether for half a billion? Even if the development costs are zero, that’s only about fifty megabucks a copy. If we assume that it’s a couple hundred millions for DDT&E, that’s only about thirty million each. I’m sure that the J2-X will be cheaper than an SSME, but I would think it’s still going to cost several million dollars per engine. I would have guessed that the stage cost was higher. These numbers imply to me that, with learning (and I guess it helps that NASA provides the production facilities at Michaud–I’ll bet that’s not included in the costs stated above) that they could get the marginal cost per stage down in the twenty-five million range or less.

Better news for sustainability than I would have thought. I wonder what the cost of the first stage is?

[Thursday update]

OK, there seems to be a consensus in the comments that this price doesn’t include engine or avionics (those are separate contracts), which is where a lot of the cost of a stage lies. So it’s not that great a deal. I thought it was too good to be true.

Economics

Arson is Zoning by Other Means

From Economist’s top story:

Arsonists certainly have strong motives for starting blazes. Rising incomes have fuelled a construction boom. Demand is high for land near the sea to build second homes. Although Greek law states that builders cannot put up homes on forest land, developers are practised at getting around the rules.

Because Greece still lacks a land registry covering the whole country

Biting Commentary about Infinity…and Beyond!