Space

Low Bid?

I’m kind of surprised (though pleasantly, if true) at the estimated cost of the contract to Boeing for the Ares 1 upper stage:

The $514.7 million cost-plus-award fee contract runs through 2016 and covers the manufacture of a ground test article, three flight test units and six production flight units.

So they’re getting about ten units altogether for half a billion? Even if the development costs are zero, that’s only about fifty megabucks a copy. If we assume that it’s a couple hundred millions for DDT&E, that’s only about thirty million each. I’m sure that the J2-X will be cheaper than an SSME, but I would think it’s still going to cost several million dollars per engine. I would have guessed that the stage cost was higher. These numbers imply to me that, with learning (and I guess it helps that NASA provides the production facilities at Michaud–I’ll bet that’s not included in the costs stated above) that they could get the marginal cost per stage down in the twenty-five million range or less.

Better news for sustainability than I would have thought. I wonder what the cost of the first stage is?

[Thursday update]

OK, there seems to be a consensus in the comments that this price doesn’t include engine or avionics (those are separate contracts), which is where a lot of the cost of a stage lies. So it’s not that great a deal. I thought it was too good to be true.

Economics

Arson is Zoning by Other Means

From Economist’s top story:

Arsonists certainly have strong motives for starting blazes. Rising incomes have fuelled a construction boom. Demand is high for land near the sea to build second homes. Although Greek law states that builders cannot put up homes on forest land, developers are practised at getting around the rules.

Because Greece still lacks a land registry covering the whole country

Space

Non-Drunken Astronauts

I’ve always been skeptical of the “drunk astronauts” story, and think that the media (and Congress) were far too quick to jump on it, since it was never substantiated. It just never really rang true to me. Unfortunately, NASA has been put in the impossible position of having to prove a negative, and there will now be people who will believe it as gospel (just as many will continue to believe that NASA never put men on the moon).

And I have to say that I sympathize with members of the astronaut corps who are justifiably pissed off about it.

But it angers me for another reason. There are so many legitimate issues and problems with the agency, that nonsense like this and crazy astronauts distracts us from dealing with them. Yet another reason to hope for needed breakthroughs in the private sector.

Biting Commentary about Infinity…and Beyond!