War Commentary

Are We Approaching A Tipping Point?

For the desktop OS?

“We are involved in a number of massive deals for Linux desktops, and those are the kinds of things that are indicators of critical mass. So we are really looking at it very hard,” said Doug Small, worldwide director of open source and Linux marketing at HP. “We are in a massive deal right now for … multi-thousands of units of a desktop opportunity for Linux. That’s an indicator.” He declined to give details about the Linux deals.

This, combined with the fact that Dell is now shipping Linux laptops, is an ominous omen for Redmond.

I think that Vista may have been a bridge too far for Microsoft. Windows has been an entrenched technology for well over a decade now (and MS operating systems in general for well over two). As long as the cost of switching over remains high in terms of user retraining, it’s hard for a newcomer to make much headway. But if the cost of continued use grows as well, and the benefits of the new technology start to become overwhelming, even the most entrenched technology can still lose out, when the curves cross over.

I’ve been fortunate enough not to have had to try Vista yet, but here’s an amusing parable.

Of course, it’s still an uphill battle until a standard GUI can be established, but I think that the Gnome/KDE wars continue.

War Commentary

The News Just Keeps Getting Better

…on that defecting Iranian general:

According to the report, the missing Iranian general was carrying documents and maps of Iran’s military and intelligence infrastructure as well as information regarding the relations between the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Hizbullah and the Islamic Jihad.

In addition, the general was reported to possess information regarding the Iranian nuclear program as well as information about Iran’s strategic military plans.

Emphasis mine. If true, it will make it a lot easier to take out the key facilities at minimal cost and collateral damage.

This appears to be a major break in our struggle with Ahmadinejad and the mullahs. It would be nice if it also presaged a more general rebellion within the ranks, and the populace itself.

[Mid-morning update]

It’s a quagmire! More insurgent attacks. In Iran.

Space

Saw The Launch

But not from as close as we wanted. We got a late start, so we pulled on to the beach in Melbourne just about the time the window opened. As it turned out, because of the half-hour delay, we had time to drive up further to Cocoa Beach, but there was no way to know that at the time. It was a little hazy on the ground, so we initially just saw a dull glow at ignition, that slowly brightened into a fireball that slowly rose into the sky and headed off to the east. Too far away (or perhaps the wind was blowing the wrong way) for any acoustic effects. Looked like a very smooth ascent, though. Here’s to the success of Orbital Express, which could give us some badly needed key technology demonstrations for orbital fueling.

Space

Looking Good For Launch

There are no technical issues, and the weather is estimated to be 90% probability of acceptable at launch time.

There is this, though, which I think is something that we will need to deal with to make spaceflight routine:

The Air Force will be clearing a Launch Hazard Area off the coast of Cape Canaveral, and mariners are being asked to keep out of the danger zone between 7:30 p.m. and 12:30 a.m. Friday.

Violators can be fined up to $250,000 and jailed for up to six years. A map of the danger zone is: launchhazardarea.doc.

OK. We’ve warned them. The probability of anyone in the box being harmed by the launch is infinitesimally small (it’s the joint probability of a launch mishap and such mishap actually affecting a boater).

Is this really a justification to hold up a launch that costs hundreds of millions of dollars, and the delay of which could cost many thousands or millions of dollars, or in the case of a military launch, not having a military asset on station during war?

This is a stupid policy. It should be changed. Chase people out of the box, and fine (and even imprison) them if they are there, but don’t hold up the launch over it. Please?

[Update a few minutes later]

OK, on reconsideration, I now realize the reason for the policy. It’s not to protect the boaters. It’s to protect the launchers from a boat-fired missile.

But still, we manage to do thousands of airline flights per day. Why can’t we do it for space launch? It seems to me like a great application for an anti-missile system, installed at the launch site.

Biting Commentary about Infinity…and Beyond!