Administrative

Frustration

I’ve never seen a night launch of the Shuttle (or any large launch vehicle–the biggest I’ve ever seen was a Delta II out of Vandenberg, from a motel in Lompoc). But there’s only a forty percent chance of flying tonight, due to concerns about low-level clouds with a front moving in. I have to decide by six or so if it’s worth the drive up to the Cape, or risk having to watch from a hundred fifty miles away on the beach down here. If it doesn’t go tonight, the next most likely success would be on Sunday night, due to forecast of high winds on Friday and Saturday. Of course, if it slips long enough (well into next week) the window will have slid backward enough that it’s no longer a night launch.

[Update at 2:30 PM EST]

Weather’s getting worse:

Kennedy Space Center already is overcast and getting worse by the hour. The satellite imagery indicates that the cloud cover that was feared as a potential launch show-stopper is going to intensify.

All three of the Transoceanic Abort Landing sites in Spain and France are experiencing unacceptable weather conditions in case an unprecedented emergency landing were attempted because of some problem during the early stages of flight.

There are low clouds and showers within 20 miles of the landing sites in Zaragosa and Moron in Spain. At the French emergency site in Istris, winds are forecast to be too strong to land.

No probability of launch update, though. I have to think it’s dropping below forty percent. This is the MMT’s bane–having to make a decision to send the crew out to lie on their backs for a couple hours, and hoping for the best against long odds. It’s looking less and less likely that we’ll make the drive up.

[3:15 PM Update]

They’re still saying a sixty percent chance of clouds preventing launch. But what’s the joint probability of having good weather at the Cape, and at all the abort landing sites? I have to think it’s a lot less than forty percent at this point. It’s going to be really hard to motivate myself to make the drive.

Political Commentary

Entertaining Thought

An emailer over at The Corner suggests Zell Miller for UN ambassador, to replace the unconfirmable John Bolton.

I’ve got a better idea. How about Joe Lieberman?

If he accepted, this would give control of the Senate back to the Republicans, since the governor of Connecticut is a Republican, who would appoint his Senate replacement. It would be a great way for him to get back at his Dem “colleagues” without going back on his promise to remain a Democrat.

And can you imagine the entertainment in the confirmation hearings, as the Democrat Senators tied themselves in knots trying to explain why one of their own, and a Jew, is not fit for the job?

General

Christmas Light Bleg

OK, you know those cheap Chinese icicle lights?

Does anyone understand enough about the circuitry to have an explanation as to why the first third of a string wouldn’t work, but the rest of it does? I look at the wiring, and there seems to be a lot more than necessary (sometimes four in the strand, sometimes three, sometimes two). What’s the deal?

I don’t want to spend a lot of time on it, because I can replace them for a few bucks, but if it’s something easy, it would be worth not having to run to Tarzhay for them.

Satire

Bipartisan Commission Hailed For New Mathematical Achievement

WASHINGTON (APUPI) The media and political pundits lauded the preliminary results of the months-long commission to determine the true ratio of the circumference to the diameter of a circle today.

“This has been a troubling national issue, since the nation’s founding. Several legislatures have attempted to proclaim the value of pi, in order to simplify mathematics for our students, but the effort has always been viewed as partisan and controversial,” stated the introduction to the initial report, released today.

It was a long-standing controversy, viewed by many as a policy quagmire, that has been finally almost been laid to rest by a compromise report from a panel of distinguished experts from all sides of the political spectrum. The goal was to inject some “realism” into the debate, and because the blue-ribbon commission had equal numbers of Republicans and Democrats, no one can any longer claim that the recommendations provided are partisan in any way.

“Obviously, there has been a lot of dispute over this issue over the years,” said the commission leader, Lincoln Chafee. “We wanted to ensure that we could generate a report and recommendations that most could accept, regardless of their self-contradictory, and trivial pabulatory nature.”

Many had argued for a value of 3, claiming that this was the simplest number to use in calculations, and one that most students would have a prayer of remembering. Others thought that this was a laudatory goal, but that it would be too incongruent with the actual ratio to be useful, arguing instead that the number should be determined to be 3.142, which would be close enough to usually generate actual useful results, but not too difficult to recall. Another group thought that the value should be 4, to ensure that the number would not suffer from self-esteem issues by being too low.

One extremist radical contingent, dismissed by the mainstream members of the panel, insisted that it was an irrational number, computable only by adding an infinite series, and unable to be completely memorized by any human being. This was obviously an unacceptable solution, politically, since given its infinite nature, it wouldn’t have been able to even be printed in the report in its entirety, let alone made statutory law.

Everyone was pleased when the determination was made to take an average of all of the members’ positions, arriving at the value 3.45 (after throwing out the suggestions of those favoring the irrational solution, since adding it in would have made the final solution unprintable and unmemorizable as well).

“We expect that the president and Congress will quickly act on our recommendation once we finalize it, since it was made on a bipartisan basis, and based on months of discussion between washed-up diplomats, spongy former Supreme Court justices, and also-ran wishy-washy politicians,” said a spokesman for the group.

“Of course, there is one more key step to determining the final number,” she added.

“We have to ensure that this will be an acceptable decision to the world community. Therefore, before we finalize our report, we want to sit down and get the opinions of Iran and Syria, and incorporate their thoughts into the results. We’d like to include Israel as well, but we fear that, like those on the panel familiar with actual mathematics, they’ll be too unrealistic. And irrational.”

[Copyright 2006, by Rand Simberg]

And thanks to Andy McCarthy for the inspiration.

[Thursday morning update]

Lileks isn’t kind to the commission recommendations:

Imagine a government report on organized crime, demanding the following:

* The Mafia

Biting Commentary about Infinity…and Beyond!