Housing Prices: Chicken Little vs. Pollyanna

Chicken Little
“The sky is falling”

Pollyanna
“what a perfectly lovely, lovely house! How awfully glad you must be you’re so rich!”

  • No capital gains taxes
  • Thick mortgage backed securities market
  • Fewer new buyers chasing money
  • Falling real estate commissions
  • Rising incomes
  • Changing commuting patterns
  • “breathtaking profit”
  • Active Federal Reserve Board
  • Industry sensitive to interest rates
  • Rising population
  • Middle income wages rising in money terms
  • Median age rising
  • Family size falling
  • Rise in ownership of 2nd homes
  • Rise in telecommuting
  • Home entertainment such as video games eclipsing movies
  • Capitalization and standardization of home building industry (e.g. Toll Brothers)

A moderation in an accellerator suggests just a slow-down in the rate of growth of housing prices to me, but don’t listen to me–I just cashed out a 40% capital gain in my last house tax free and locked in a super low rate from a private equity mortgage lender and didn’t use a real estate agent to buy and used a cut commission agent to sell. Clearly I’m a Pollyanna.

Wow

Still a lot of game to go (it’s early in the second quarter) but Notre Dame is looking pretty overrated. They haven’t gotten a first down.

Note, I’m not saying Michigan is that great, but at least it looks like they may get through September without a loss, if they continue like this, and that’s an accomplishment in itself.

[Update a few minutes later]

27-7 with a lot of time remaining in the first half (two of the Michigan touchdowns were off turnovers). And the only reason that Notre Dame got the touchdown was a (rare) interception off Henne–they still haven’t gotten a first down, I don’t think. The Irish have to be in shock.

[Near the end of the half]

The Irish finally managed to put together a drive. 34-13 at the half. I have to think that the Michigan defense is letting up, because they’re becoming complacent. Don’t do that. You’re playing God’s team. Or at least they think they are.

I’d love to be a fly on the wall in both locker rooms at half time.

[Update at the end of the third quarter]

40-13, Wolverines.

Still thinking that the Irish were overranked, because they were the Irish. But I’m sure that Michigan will be overranked as a result.

Still, it’s starting to look a lot like 1997…

Huh?

Can anyone else figure out what or who Jon Goff is talking about here? Because I sure can’t:

NASA figures that making our nation look like petty hypocrates regarding freedom of speech is a better plan. Inflammatory cartoons about another relgion? No problem. Publically calling for nuking another country off the map? No worries. Wearing the flag of your native land on a spacesuit that you bought for a spaceflight that you paid several million dollars of your own hard earned cash? Sorry, no can do boss.

It’s been sad seeing friends who have told me ithat they’d rather just see Iran and most of the rest of the Middle East nuked off the face of the map, all the sudden trying to turn Ansari’s flight into some sort of political event. Let someone who actually cares about the Iranian people as an end, rather than merely a means, say what she wants to say. It’ll probably do far more lasting good for the people of Iran (and the rest of us too) than all of the words that the spacenut side of Right Blogostan would prefer to put in her mouth.

First of all, there’s an implication that the same people are advocating different policies under different circumstances (otherwise the talk about “hypocrisy” would make no sense). But NASA didn’t publish, or approve the publication of any cartoons of which I’m aware, or publicly call for nuking any countries off the map. In fact, I’m unaware of anyone doing that, other than Jacques Chirac, but maybe I just missed it.

I’m also unaware that anyone who did publish the cartoons, or defended the right of the publishers to do so, has cheered, or even noticed NASA actions with regard to the Ansari flag issue.

(And I’m not sure what Jon’s point is with regard to the cartoons–he calls them offensive, but that’s only because some Muslims consciously decided to be offended when the cameras were around. What was much more offensive, as is the case with the Pope’s recent speech, was all of the violence and death threats over cartoons. Is it only pictures of Allah that offend Jon, or is he also outraged by crucifixi in urine and pictures of the virgin painted with elephant dung?)

So who is it that Jon is kvetching about here? (I’m also curious to know which of his friends would like to see Iran and most of the Middle East being nuked off the map.)

Here’s a suggestion. Don’t blog when angry. You don’t make much sense.

[Update on Saturday evening]

Jon, who is an extremely standup guy, has second thoughts, as I expected he would. I should be so reconsiderate.

I do think, though, that he should leave the original words up for posterity, with accompanying retraction. I correct stuff that I put up, but I don’t delete it. Simply removing it (albeit with apology) seems a little too Orwellian to me…

Hey, No One Claimed He Was A Good One

The burglar that was strangled by a nurse in her home a few days ago was a hit man.

…after an investigation, police now say the intruder Kuhnhausen strangled was apparently a hit man hired by her estranged husband — Michael James Kuhnhausen Sr. — to kill her.

The 58-year-old husband was taken into custody Thursday and charged with conspiracy to commit murder and attempted murder. He was ordered held on $500,000 bail.

Haffey had worked as a custodian under Kuhnhausen at an adult video store, according an affidavit filed by the Multnomah County District Attorney’s office.

Guess his new profession didn’t work out all that well. Gotta hate when the wacker becomes the wackee. And as for the husband, just goes to show what happens when you go for the low bid.

No Apologies

Tigerhawk talks about the infantilization of seething Muslims by condescending western elites:

Neither the pope nor the Muslim clerics are the only actors here. Tens of thousands of Muslims chose to act in violence or condone violence yesterday. Millions more supported them in this, the evidence being that Muslim politicians jumped on the bandwagon. These millions of Muslims are hardly candles in the wind, helplessly manipulated by the imams. They chose their religion. They chose their mosque. They chose not to “listen carefully” to the words of the pope. They chose to take to the streets in rage, and they chose to burn and attack and kill perfectly innocent people, all on the say-so of one or another demagogue in a turbin. They are not children, however much the cultural relativists who absolve the rioters and their sympathizers infantalize them. I condemn these people for making bad choices; liberals, such as the editors of the New York Times, refuse to condemn them because they believe that Muslims are incapable of choices. I may deplore the choices of these rioting Muslims, but the New York Times holds them in contempt, regarding them as nothing more than wild animals. Just as we all blame humans who antagonize an animal into a violent response, the New York Times blames Westerners who “sow pain,” as if Muslims have the free will of a cornered wolf.

For my part, I am sick of “Muslim rage.” Whether inspired by the pope or Danish cartoonists or the clumsy use of the word “crusade” by a Western politician, there is simply no defense for the behavior of these imams and their followers. It is barbaric, and everybody who is not barbaric or an unreconstructed apologist for barbarians knows it. The Muslims who commit arson and mayhem in response to some Westerner speaking his opinion — and the pope, as leader of the Roman church, is exactly that — have chosen to act as enemies of reason, peace, and everything that is good in the world.

…Islam needs jihad, which I understand means “struggle.” It needs a jihad against illiteracy. It needs a jihad against ignorance. It needs a jihad against sloth. It needs a jihad against corruption. It needs a jihad in support of women, without whom it cannot succeed in the modern world. It needs a jihad against the clerics who have — allegedly, according to “moderates” — perverted the truth of its religion. It needs a jihad against its governments — secular and Islamic — who have destroyed the future for more than a billion people. It needs a jihad against despair.

Until I see the arsonists and rioters among Muslims embracing these jihads, I will hold them responsible for the bad choices that they make, including the choice to reject secular education, the choice to destroy rather than construct, the choice to dwell in the past instead of dream about the future, the choice to obsess about Jews rather than wonder how they might emulate the Jews, and the choice to have so little confidence in the power of their own religion that they oppress and condemn and kill those who choose otherwise.

More Space Blogging

Anousheh Ansari and Peter Diamandis continue to post over at the new X-Prize blog.

[Update at 4:30 PM EDT]

Here’s another interview with her. Note (to those who continue to talk about the “first Muslim woman in space”) that she never mentions her religion, or the word religion.

[Saturday morning update]

Alan Boyle has more on the nationality/religion angle.

As to the Iranian flag issue, just out of curiousity, did the flag change when the mullahs took over, or is it currently what it was during the time of the Shah? If not, it would be an interesting statement for her to have a pre-mullah flag. But in general, she seems to be avoiding the politics as much as possible.

Gravitas

Katie Couric has a blog:

Add to that my first piece on 60 Minutes on the illnesses that thousands of first responders are experiencing five years after September 11th. To be a part of that broadcast was needless to say, an enormous thrill. My father called me afterwards and said,

Biting Commentary about Infinity…and Beyond!