Forget About Ernesto

It turned out, like Alberto, to be dramatically overhyped (but I guess it’s better to be safe than sorry, and it may still do a lot of damage in the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic). The real hurricane season has begun:

The computer models are very bullish in developing waves coming off the coast of Africa in the next two weeks, and I expect we’ll have at least two new named storms by the time the peak of hurricane season arrives, September 10.

No Launch Any Time Soon

They’ve started the rollback from the pad. Probably the best decision, since the consensus of the tracks is to put the storm right over the Cape when it exits the state, between Cocoa Beach and Daytona.

Well, at least I won’t have to be distracted by taking any trips up to the Cape to watch a launch for the next few weeks.

[Update at 10:30 AM EDT]

It’s starting to look like the storm is going to be a little further west than even the early morning predictions were:

Speaking of RECON, it good to have them back in the storm this morning. The Cuban Government did allow the Air Force reserve plane to fly into Cuban airspace this morning to get a good fix on the storm’s center. We thank them a great deal. Hopefully in the not-too-distant future, Cuban overflights can be acomplished to better warn their citizens as well as ours. The RECON data is so important, a few hours without it can mean big changes! Ok, back to the storm…The latest guidance is again tightly clustered thanks to the valuable data that the NOAA Gulfstream IV jet was able to add to the model suites. This has landfall in extreme southwest Florida and the upper Keys mid-morning on Wednesday as a moderate to strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane, although the odds of Ernesto topping 74mph is very small. The storm should then begin to re-curve to the north and northeast east of Tampa, over Orlando to just southeast of Jacksonville by late in the day on Wednesday into the overnight hours.

We’ll still get a lot of rain over here, but probably the winds will be barely tropical force. If that prediction is true, it also means that they probably didn’t need to roll back. Wonder if they’re thinking about putting the crawler in reverse?

[Update at 3:37 PM EDT]

From my mouth (so to speak) to NASA’s ears. As Mark Whittington notes in comments, they’ve decided to do exactly that.

Good crisis management by NASA. Everything they’ve done so far is exactly what I would have done (well, in the context of this particular mission), for what little it’s worth. The emphasis needs to be on flying this vehicle, early and often, despite the hand wringers.

Are They Muslims?

Donald Sensing has an interesting post (with interesting comments) on what the religious status of Steve Centanni and Olaf Wiig is today:

…were the forced confessions of Islam by Centanni and Wiig valid?

I would not count them as valid because there is no reason to believe from the men’s reports that they experienced a religious change of heart. That is, the men’s confession did not spring from faith in Allah, it was a deed done from fear of their lives.

But, let us remember that the basis of Islam, indeed the very meaning of the word, is “submission,” not faith. There is no concept of original sin in Islam as there is in Christianity; indeed, while original sin is the conceptual glue that holds Christian doctrine together, it is entirely rejected in Islam. Christianity teaches that original sin cannot be remitted by any human works, only by the works of God, namely, Christ dying and resurrected. Hence, no deeds human beings can do can bring them to salvation. Thus, wrote St. Paul, “If you believe in your heart that Jesus was raised from the dead and confess with your mouth that Jesus is Lord, you will be saved.” Note the order: confession follows a change of heart, an affirmation of belief. Without the change of heart the confession’s utterance is of no value.

But in Islam, the confession’s utterance is unconnected to a change of heart. In fact, a change of heart is wholly irrelevant. The confession stands alone and its only point is that it is done, not that it is believed. The entire edifice of salvation theory in Islam is built on one thing alone: human submission to perform deeds ordered by Allah. Islam does not teach that Allah desires human beings to love him; they are commanded to obey.

There are a lot of interesting issues here, one of which is that some Christians would consider them insufficiently faithful, in that they valued their life over their faith (this assumes, of course, that both men were/are Christians–it certainly wouldn’t apply to me, since I have no faith other than provisional materialism). They might point out the relatively recent example of the young Christian woman at Columbine who refused to renounce her lord at gunpoint, and died.

As one WoC commenter points out, in the mentality of the enemy, we have once again showed ourselves to be weak and insufficiently devoted to our own beliefs (a microcosm of the larger societal problem of a soft multi-cultural post-modern Europe and much of America, unwilling to defend our own values). It was another demonstration of being, in Osama’s formulation, the “weak horse.” I’m not, of course, saying that the men had some sort of patriotic duty to take a bullet for the team–I certainly wouldn’t have, but it’s a symptom of just how difficult it will be to win this war, and persuade the enemy that they’ve lost.

More practically, in many places in the world, including Gaza and the West Bank, these two men are now apostates and liable to be killed under sharia law (remember the Christian convert in Afghanistan?), because they have since renounced their “conversions.” I wouldn’t go back to the Middle East if I were them. Their statements of encouragement for other reporters to continue to cover Gaza and “tell the story of the Palestinian people” (is that really the job of a so-called objective news reporter?) may sound nice to PC western ears, but it will have little effect in making the region safer for them, or others. Such words will also be interpreted as a sign of weakness by the enemy.

And I should say that I find tedious the argument that, because there were forced Christian conversions in history (e.g., during the Crusades and the Inquisition), Christians are hypocritical in criticizing this. One is history. The other is happening today. The point is that Christianity has largely evolved from a Middle Ages mentality. In the twenty-first century, Islam (or much, too much of Islam) remains firmly within it.

Dodging A Bullet?

It’s starting to look as though Ernesto is running out of steam. Cuba apparently beat it up pretty badly (I always find it weird, and frustrating given that it’s hard and unpleasant to visit under the current regime, that while Florida and the Bahamas are flatter than pancakes, Cuba–just a couple hundred miles away–has these several-thousand foot, presumably scenic mountains).

Anyway, it’s barely a tropical storm, and will take a long time to reorganize in crossing the Florida Straights, so the expection now is that it will come ashore as a tropical storm, rather than the one or two hurricane that was predicted this morning. It’s still headed right at us, though. I’m now debating whether to shutter. I’ll still have time to do it in the morning, when we’ll have a better idea what’s going on.

[Update a few minutes later]

I should note, in deference to the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic, that this storm may still have its say. I hope that they get off as lucky as it looks as though Florida will, but the models for them don’t look as optimistic for them right now.

Overconstrained

Keith Cowing writes about the inflexibility and fragility of the Shuttle (a subject near and dear to my own heart).

NASA’s current launch dilemma began to develop much along the lines of the 70’s movie – based on the 60s novel “Marooned” where a hurricane threatened the launching of a rescue mission to an orbiting space station. When things got tough – the Russians helped out – at the last minute. Things are not as dire this time around, but the confluence of various facts would make for a good book someday.

Weather has always been an issue for launched from Florida – and it always will be. Russians will be as obstinate as they can get away with so long as they are in the equation for American human spaceflight aboard the ISS.

Given that NASA seeks to used “shuttle derived” architecture and hardware – and launch it from KSC – it has more or less guaranteed that such uncertainties will remain part of human spaceflight for decades to come.

I disagree with him though, that the lessons to be learned are from the Russians, who have developed only a slightly less expensive, and slightly more robust system.

Until we develop a truly robust and low-cost space transportation infrastructure (with full redundancy in vehicles and vehicle types), spaceflight will remain expensive, and rare.

Biting Commentary about Infinity…and Beyond!