Phil Bowermaster has a couple of interesting and related book reviews. The Angosphere Challenge
An Arab Lunar Mission?
I doubt if it will kick off a space race with Arabia, though. Mark Whittington will be disappointed again.
Chocolate, Veggies And Health
Some interesting research results:
Hollenberg’s follow-up work, reported in the PNAS paper, confirms that the islanders also have far larger exposures to cocoa flavanols. Tests showed that flavanol-residue concentrations in urine were six times as high in the islanders as in the mainlanders.
At the Cocoa Symposium, Hollenberg reported that dramatic long-term benefits may be attributable to the islanders’ cocoa habit: Their death rate from heart disease is less than 8 percent of that in Kuna mainlanders, and cancer kills only 16 percent as many islanders. The two populations were matched for age, weight, and a number of other factors that might affect heart and cancer risks.
Hollenberg concludes that the Kuna epidemiological data, although preliminary, “indicate that a flavanol-rich diet may provide an extraordinary benefit in the reduction of the two deadliest diseases in today’s world.”
Pretty impressive. Unfortunately, it turns out that, while dark chocolate is in theory good for your heart and helps fight cancer, the manufacturing process tends to destroy the particular flavonoids that confer the benefits. Hopefully, now that they know this, Hersheys et al can figure out how to make a healthier chocolate that still tastes good.
[Via Geek Press]
March Storm Warriors
OK, it looks like Thomas James was too hard on Dr. Hansen, because it does indeed look like the quotes were taken out of context, as several commenters pointed out. And as the latest escapades of Bruce Gagnon (as reported at Wired News) show, it’s truly unfair to lump the two together. When it comes to moonbattery, Bruce is simply in a class by himself, a virtual one-man belfry. But what’s really appalling about this article is the shoddy reporting. Jeff Foust shreds it. Clark Lindsay isn’t impressed, either.
Floating Down The Stream Of Consciousness
…of James Lileks:
And now, the usual relief: a mild and agreeable afternoon followed by choir practice, during which I
Space Roundup
The latest edition of NewSpaceNews is out, with a roundup of alt-space activities from around the web.
Space Moonbats
Thomas James (who reads this stuff so you don’t have to, though it’s entertaining even if you do) has the latest roundup, including a certain NASA scientist who’s been in the news recently.
No Hope For Peace
…in the Middle East. At least not until Hamas changes its charter.
Or is no more.
Big Space Business Numbers 2.0
If numbers get repeated often enough, like in this gallery of commercial space opportunities, they start to be believed. Business 2.0 as part of a big spread on space investment opportunities in their March cover story retells some whoppers.
Space Hotels: $5B/year by 2015
This is inconsistent with Futron and world launch capabilities and expense. First let’s see if someone wins the America’s Space Prize. Expensive travel means very little revenue. By 2025, very possible if space access costs drop. $2M/month would get a lot of takers if we can get 600kg worth of people, spaceship and consumables to orbit at $3000/kg including payload. A Progress at 2000-3000kg of payload lasts 2-3 months with three eaters.
Mars: $400B in exploration by 2030
If you just put NASA spending in line with US GDP growth and put 12 years of it to “Mars” you get about $400B.
Orbital labs: $10B/year by 2015
NASA can’t even come up with a business case to finish ISS. So far the only demand has come from Greg Olsen so he could take a tax writeoff on his vacation. Hmm, maybe it will be a conference destination.
Solar sats: $100B/year by 2020.
You have to beat the marginal cost of hydrocarbons to make money on this. Julian Simon’s Ultimate Resouce 2 indicates heavily against this. Methane hydrates, coal and uranium would have to be taxed to a standstill (which is not impossible) for this to be this big. Space elevators flip it.
Space elevator: $2B/year by 2021
If it works much bigger. It will probably be bigger than solar sats or asteroid mining. Without competition, almost all profits from solar sats and asteroid mining will accrue to the elevator owner.
Asteroid mining: $10B/year by 2030
The space access and demand curve math does not really work except for local consumption in space. But it would be a great place to colonize along with the Moon and Mars.
Moon: $104B in exploration by 2018, $250B in helium mining by 2050
The exploration comes from extrapolating the NASA budget: good bet; the He3 requires us to run out of uranium or patience for it. Not likely.
Microsats: $1.5B/year by 2018
Likely an underestimate as miniaturization, space access costs and dedicated launchers for microsats come into their own
Space Tourism: $1B/year by 2023
This will be bigger than hotels, which is not to say that it will be more than twice Futron’s prediction repeated here. (The factor of 2 selfishly comes from games. The transport to and from the hotel is more expensive than the hotel stay.)
Leavin’ On A Jet Plane
…don’t know when I’ll be back again, but my return reservation is for Friday night. I’m off to Califor Nye A early tomorrow morning, and may be too busy to blog, as there are a lot of deliverables due this week, on top of the CEV proposal work. But I’ll try to check in tomorrow.