I played hooky today for an hour or so and attended the press conference that Elon Musk held over at SpaceX. Bottom line, a launch next Friday at 1 PM Pacific (Saturday morning at Kwajalein). I took a couple pictures and some notes, and may have more info later. Attendance was sparse, at least partly because all the local television camera crews were covering the fire up in Ventura.

I take all pronouncements about the Chinese space program with a heavy dosage of sodium chloride, but for those who breathlessly (and wishfully, if it feeds their fantasies) believe everything they read on the subject (and yes, Mark, before you start whinging about it, this is a strawman–I figure turnabout’s fair play), here’s a report that says they’re three decades from landing a human on the moon.

That sounds a lot more realistic to me than “one year before NASA.” Of course, when they do, they won’t need to bring much in the way of supplies–they’ll be able to check in to the Lunar Hilton.

[Update on Friday morning]

Mark hilariously demonstrates his cluelessness about my attitude once again:

Rand Simberg breaths [sic] a sigh of relief…

No, Mark.

In order for one to “breathe a sigh of relief,” one would have to have something to be “relieved” about. I’ve never expressed any concerns about the Chinese space program (one of the reasons that you continually go off the rails), so it’s nonsensical to describe me as “relieved” at news that simply confirms my continuing skepticism. You’re the one who should be relieved, but I know that, on this subject, you’ll continue to make Chicken Little look calm, collected and rational.

Clark Lindsey says that NASA’s R&D priorities are exactly reversed.

I’ll bet you’re wondering how I’m going to pull this one off. And I’m not sure what the category should be.

But I was reading a piece from a few days ago by Michael Rubin on Iraq, and the connection dinged in my mind:

Iraq is a complex country, difficult to crystallize in a simple poll. But this is exactly what too many news organizations seek to do. On October 24, 2005, for example, the Guardian reported a new poll finding that 82 percent of Iraqis were “strongly opposed” to the presence of foreign troops in their country. Critics of the war seized on the poll to demand immediate withdrawal.

True: Polls do not lie. Iraqis dislike occupation. They resent stopping on busy highways for slow-moving military convoys. They juxtapose the Green Zone’s generators with their own worsening electricity supply. They fail to understand why U.S. diplomats who seldom leave their quarters must block off the center of their city rather than build their cantonment on its outskirts. They are annoyed by helicopters hovering over their villages. But such annoyance with occupation does not translate into demands for immediate withdrawal.

Polls in mature democracies like the United States are difficult enough to conduct and get right. The task is far more formidable in post-autocratic societies. When pollsters instead ask Iraqis to prioritize their top-20 concerns, withdrawal of Coalition troops usually ranks near the bottom of the list. Restoring electricity, combating corruption, and maintaining security are consistently at the top priorities.

There’s reason here for those who advocate big government space programs to be concerned. Yes, in the abstract, people like the space program. But when it comes down to actually setting priorities, NASA is always way down the list, and there’s little in the president’s vision, and even less in NASA’s proposed implementation of it, to change that. Dr. Griffin is riding for a fall.