Pithy

I haven’t had much to say about the Miers nomination, but a fellow blogger asked me last night at dinner what I thought about it. A lot of other people are discussing this, but all I’ll say is that I think that it’s the most boneheaded thing that the president has done during his presidency.

SpaceX Launch Delay

I learned from Gwynne Shotwell today that SpaceX has delayed the launch of the Falcon I from their earlier planned date of October 31st to later in November. She didn’t describe any particular issue, other than that they want to take a little more time to make sure that they get everything right on this flight, which is their maiden one, and will be crucial to the credibility of their future endeavors. Unfortunately, if they delay past the third week of November, they’ll lose their launch site in Kwajalein for a couple months, so if it doesn’t fly in November, it won’t fly until next year.

Good luck to them–a lot of hopes are riding on a company that can demonstrate that orbit doesn’t have to cost as much, or take as long to develop, as conventional wisdom would indicate.

Last Of The Titans

Folks in southern California will have an opportunity to see the last Titan IV launch out of Vandenberg in about an hour, at 11:04 AM Pacific time. If the sky is clear, go outside and look to the west. Spaceflightnow is blogging the countdown.

[Update a couple minutes later]

To clarify, it’s the last Titan IV (or Titan anything) launch, period. It just happens to be launching out of Vandenberg. And with its retirement, Delta IV can take over as reigning pad queen.

[Update at 11 AM PDT]

I don’t know if it was the Transterrestrialanche, or what, but SpaceFlightNow is now down.

[Update at 11:30 PDT]

Well, it apparently launched, but I didn’t see it. There was a slight marine layer, and it may have obscured the view.

Living In The Future

Just a note to say that I’m waiting for my plane to LA, and that Fort Lauderdale airport has wireless capability throughout the terminal. They also have power outlets next to the seats so I don’t have to run down my battery, and can save it for the plane trip. Once they have wireless in the airplanes, I’ll never get away from the blogging ball and chain…

Flu Update

Roche just announced they are sub-licensing Tamiflu broadly. WSJ picked up the story (subscription required) and noted that some countries aren’t waiting and have allowed generic production infringing Roche’s patents.

I was able to obtain some more Tamiflu today here in Austin at my local People’s Pharmacy. While there is apparently tremendous pressure on Roche at the international level, it looks like the rest of the supply chain has not yet picked up on the coming shortage and telegraphed the price rise. Gas prices these are not.

With no human to human transmission yet, it is hard to produce a vaccine because we do not know what the final pathogen will look like as it has not mutated yet. The risk is that it will spread quickly, but another risk is that it will not spread at all unfairly delegitimizing everyone who raised the warning.

It’s a lot to ask people to st0ckpile their own Tamiflu (40 doses is about $300 enough for two acute courses if you show symptoms or 40 days worth of deterrence). But it lasts for three flu seasons. Spending $100/person per year would be $30 billion/year. Roche might part with a license to sell at a few cents a pill in those volumes and the post office distribute it getting the price down to a few bucks a person a year.

But who will st0ckpile it for you if you don’t do it yourself? All it takes is 1% of families to buy to make personal st0ckpiling bigger than Roche’s US sales in a single flu season. There were only 13,000 prescriptions last year. So if 1% of families bought demand would be increased by a factor of a hundred. Then maybe the wheels of government would move to build some more “push packs” for flu and not just bioterror.

While we are talking good public health policy, maybe we could use Tamiflu prophylactically every year in hard hit regions and not wait for bird flu. This and other measures like more widespread vaccination outreach may even cut the tens of thousands of deaths from regular flu seasons down to the 160 of a typical hurricane season. It would also give the Center for Disease Control good practice.

Back In Town

But just for a day or so. I got back yesterday, but I’m on a flight for California this afternoon, where I’ll be working, attending a workshop on DoD responsive launch initiatives, and going to the Space Frontier Conference this weekend (which you should attend as well, if you’re interested in this stuff). Blogging may be light.

I’m also keeping the house buttoned up in case Wilma pays a visit while I’m gone (though Patricia will be here). I had hoped that I could take down the shutters, and take down the ugly steel front door, and put on the pretty one, but I guess it will have to wait until the end of October now. This has been a long hurricane season.

Press Outraged Over Staged Flagraising

March 3rd, 1945

IWO JIMA (Routers) Controversy has erupted among the press corps in the last few days as news has spread that the now-famous picture of the “victorious” flag raising over Iwo Jima a couple weeks ago was staged. Many believe that, as the huge number of casualties mounted in the ill-fated and pointless invasion of this tiny island, the Roosevelt administration, desperate for a bit of pro-war propaganda, arranged to have the photo taken for dissemination to the world’s news services.

It has been revealed that the picture was actually of a “recreation” of an earlier flag raising of a much smaller flag, though even that event has now been cast into doubt by the apparent attempt to mislead the press.

There is abundant evidence that the picture was not only unspontaneous, but orchestrated on orders from higher ups.

“None of the men in the picture actually carried the flag to the top,” one reporter noted. “It was brought up by a lieutenant in charge, probably at White House orders.” In addition, none of the men in the picture had even been injured in the fighting to that point.

The latest propaganda ploy from the administration comes in the midst of doubts about the war strategy, with many thinking this latest bloody adventure particularly misguided. Several thousand Marines have died already in the invasion, and many more have been injured, many losing limbs. Moreover, despite the “victory” implied by the “flag raising,” the brave Japanese continue to resist in caves dug deep into the volcanic rock of the doughty little island, with continuing “Allied” casualties. One Republican staffer on the Hill declared that it was Roosevelt’s attempt to prematurely declare “major combat operations over,” when it was clear that the Japanese were going to continue to fight on to the last man.

Beyond the distaste at what now seems an obvious public-relations ploy, some military strategists argue that the Iwo Jima invasion wasn’t worth the cost in resources and blood, or even necessary at all, since the only reason the island is desired is as an auxiliary air base for emergency landings of “Allied” bombers attacking the Japanese homeland.

Some of the anti-war groups are particularly outraged. “We’ve killed tens of thousands of Japanese soldiers, and several thousand of our own, just so we can save the lives of a few American air crews while they kill hundreds of thousands of helpless Japanese civilians,” read a press release from one of the more prominent groups. It continued, “Now we find the Roosevelt administration attempting to cover up its criminal actions by staging events meant to hide the fact that we’re losing this cruel war, with massive casualties on all sides.”

The White House, of course, attempts to defend its actions. A spokesman points out that no claims have been made that fighting was over, and that the photo was a depiction of a real event that had occurred shortly before, but not been captured by the cameras. He also noted that Mount Suribachi was in fact taken that day, and had not been relinquished since.

This does not satisfy critics in the press or the anti-war movement, however.

“It’s important to demonstrate the perfidy and mendacity of this administration now,” said one leading spokesman, “before it becomes fixed in the mind of the public as an American ‘victory,’ or something to be admired and emulated in the future. If we don’t set the record straight now, who knows how history will record it? For all we know, they’ll decide to put up a bronze statue in Arlington to commemorate it, or something.”

Biting Commentary about Infinity…and Beyond!