The Myth Of The Right Stuff

Jeff Foust has an article today on a recent speech by Gene Kranz (yesterday was the thirty-fifth anniversary of the successful return of the crippled Apollo XIII). It’s become popular myth as a result of Ron Howard’s movie that Gene was the director of flight control, solely responsible for getting the crew back safely, when in fact there were more than one. In my opinion, Glynn Lunney in particular gets short (in fact zero) shrift in the movie, though the work obviously had to be done in shifts.

But I’m afraid that we (and I include Gene in this) take the wrong lessons from that incident. Yes, the teamwork was splendid, and the improvisation excellent, and they did everything they needed to do to get them back. But as I commented back in days immediately following the loss of Columbia, those are necessary, but not sufficient, to ensure that we won’t lose people in space. It has to be recognized that in addition to all of the smart moves on the ground, that crew was also damn lucky. If that explosion had happened while the crew was on the surface, or on the way back from the Moon, they’d have died, no matter how much derring do was on display in Houston. A lot of other things could have gone wrong that would have killed them, and no amount of teamwork, training, and smarts would have prevented it.

Sending people into space is a risky business, and we have to accept that. It sounds nice when Gene says it, but “failure is not an option” isn’t a realistic attitude. As someone once said, when failure isn’t an option, success gets damned expensive. And of course, the easiest way to ensure that failure isn’t an option is to not even make the attempt.

Reducing The Cost Of Access

My current partner in crime here, Sam Dinkin, has some interesting ideas about how to encourage space activity and drive down costs over at The Space Review today. I don’t agree with all of them, and I’m sure that in some cases there may be some bad unintended consequences, though I haven’t given them enough thought to identify any yet.

I like the idea of subsidizing EELV at the margin. Government policy in general doesn’t seem to understand the concept of marginal cost (one of the reasons that both Shuttle and ISS are programmatic disasters), and a more explicit recognition of its importance could have some good policy outcomes.

I’m not sure what he means by “privatizing ISS and Shuttle,” I think that the infrastructure to maintain both of them is too expensive for anyone to operate at a profit, even if they were given away.

Too Hip

Mark Steyn has more entertaining and trenchant thoughts on John Bolton’s hip handing.

As for the job Bolton’s up for, what would make Barbara Boxer and Joe Biden put their hands on hips? Child sex rings run from U.N. peacekeeping operations? Sudan sitting on the Human Rights Commission while it licenses mass murder in Darfur? Kofi Annan’s son doing a $30,000-a-year job but somehow having a spare quarter-million dollars to invest in a Swiss soccer club? There are tides in the affairs of men when someone has to put his hands on his hips and toss his curls. And, if the present depraved state of the U.N. isn’t one of them, nothing is.

Ten Tax Loopholes

Here are some counterintuitive tax loopholes to ponder:

  1. Savers can separate high and low income securities. Pre-tax savings instruments such as 401k, 403b and 529 plans are taxed at ordinary income tax rates when the money is withdrawn. This is great because it avoids double taxation of both income tax and capital gains tax. It is worth considering where it is most beneficial to put different types of securities from a broad portfolio. Even though the accounts are tax advantaged, the tax advantage all comes at the head end when money is put into the account. Once it is in the account, it is tax disadvantaged due to the high rate when it is withdrawn. (529s only avoid this for a few years while the beneficiary has a lower tax rate than the maximum). Thus if a portfolio has some securities with high expected return (like high beta risky securities), they incur lower taxes in a post-tax account so that upon withdrawal only capital gains of 20% are paid. Bonds and low risk securities belong in the 401k, 403b or other pre-tax account because they will pay out 35% (or higher if taxes go up) when they are withdrawn.
  2. Savers can back load non-matched 401k deposits. The tax benefit accrues if contributions to a 401k occur at whatever time during a year. If that all occurs on December 31, then the growth occurring at ordinary income tax rates has on average a half a year less to accumulate. Here is a strategy that compares favorably with contributing to a 401k all through the year. If money is placed in S&P 500 depository receipts (SPDRs) during the year, if it goes up a saver can borrow against it and put that money into a 401k and sell the SPDRs after a year and book the long term capital gain, holding cash in the 401k, then buying SPDRs in the 401k when it is sold in the cash account. If SPDR prices go down, they can be sold, the capital loss booked and the SPDRs rebought in the 401k. The reduction from 35% to 20% tax on the gains can make up for a lot of margin interest.

    There are some disadvantages to this loophole. Note that there are maximums to 401k contributions so the saver probably needs to start earlier. If the saver’s job security is in doubt, it would be wise to start even earlier because some jobs have a waiting period before contributions may start. Finally, the saver may need the help with the will power that contributing every month brings.

    (Note: for matched deposits, the doubling of the principle earning income offsets any savings in taxation so those contributions are not subject to this loophole.)

  3. Savers can actively convert ordinary income into capital gains. If securities prices rise and fall together, then they can be used to induce “spooky action at a distance”. Einstein coined the phrase to talked about quantum entanglement of particles. Suppose instead we have two entangled investments. If a cash (post-tax) account holds a short position in a risky security and the 401k or 403b holds a long position in the same security, one account will rise and the other will fall as an exact mirror image.

    To mix another metaphor from physics, the custodian of the accounts can behave like Maxwell’s Demon who lets energetic particles through a door and sends slow particles back the other way. Dinkin’s Demon is going to close both positions after one year if the price of the risky security falls and keep positions where the risky security rises. There entropy in thermodynamics that makes Maxwell’s Demon expensive. Dinkin’s Demon only costs commissions. The risky security is held both long and short so all the security has to do is oscillate to generate the opportunity for money to flow from the pre-tax account to the post tax account.

  4. Saver’s can actively convert capital gains and ordinary income into Roth IRA appreciation. The previous loophole would be even wider if the post tax account was a Roth IRA, an account where growth is not taxed. Then no tax would be due on the gains. It would also be quicker because the trade could take one day because there would be no waiting period for the long term capital gains. Not everyone qualifies, however, for a Roth IRA.
  5. Earners can take income in alternate years to avoid estimated taxes. The IRS requires that payments be made to the US Treasury that are the minimum of 90% of current year’s tax due or 100-110% of last year’s tax. If money is earned in alternate years, the minimum will always be zero. Since payments are due annually instead of quarterly, six months interest can be earned on taxes.
  6. Earners can backload regular withholding. There are high penalties associated with the following loophole if it is not executed correctly. By changing the W-4 to have lots of extra withholding in December, it is possible to keep and earn interest on most of the earner’s money that would otherwise be withheld about a half a year extra. Having the high month be November is a little safer because it gives time to correct an accounting error (or find a new job) for December.
  7. Earners can form a partnership to earn dividends instead of wages. Dividends are taxed at ordinary income rates. Wages also require Medicare. The economic incidence of Medicare taxes is twice the employee share of 1.45%. That is, by converting wages to dividends, marginal taxes can be cut by 2.9%. Many states have taxes on partnership and corporate earnings that offset this, but not all. IRS does not look kindly on exclusively paying dividends and not wages so they are on to the loophole. But the loophole is still open for a typical division of profits and salary.
  8. Owners can pay out capital gains instead of cash. One of the biggest drivers of the technology economy was the differential taxation between capital gains and ordinary income. By paying very little cash and making it up with stock or stock option compensation, firms could reduce the tax load of their employees. If the money that was being used for salary and benefits was instead put into a share buyback to reduce the number of shares outstanding, the price of the shares would steadily rise even if the value of the firm stays constant or falls.

    For example, suppose a firm is worth $100 million and stays exactly the same total value. Suppose there are 100 million shares outstanding at $1.00 each. Suppose the firm pays $100 million/year in compensation. If employees and management agreed, 25 million options could be issued, cash compensation reduced, and $50 million (and a $49 million loan) could be used to buy up 99% of the outstanding stock at $1.01, then 8.33 million shares resold. (A synthetic 1 for 3 reverse split). The price per share after the buyback would be $3. The employees would have $50 million in capital gains that they would pay $10 million in taxes on if they exercise the options and hold them for a year so they have $40 million in gains post tax. Compare that to the $50 million they receive in cash. The $50 million would be taxed at ordinary income tax rates so the employees would have only $32.5 million if they are in the 35% bracket. If they are in the 25% bracket, they and their employers have to pay social security so take home pay is roughly the same with cash, but lower brackets do even better with capital gains.

  9. Taxpayers can start a schedule C business. There is a 2% limitation on miscellaneous tax deductions. There is no minimum on schedule C deductions which can be deducted from the first dollar.
  10. High tax payers can renounce citizenship before making too much money. The United States has a mean streak. It has evolved beyond ‘love it or leave it’ to ‘if you leave it we want your money’. If taxpayers pay more than $122,000 in taxes, they may be liable for 10 years of additional taxes if they decide to renounce their citizenship. This way of avoiding taxes will probably become less popular if estate taxes are reduced or eliminated.

Walking Eagle

I don’t know if this will be the last word on the subject, but Matt Labash certainly has the best take so far on Lord Minniehaha:

All this anarchism has made me thirsty, so I cross the street to get a Diet Coke, and take a coffee order from Churchill and Saito. All I can find, however, is a Starbucks. When I come back to the fair with two venti something-or-anothers, surly anarchists look like they want to kick my windows in, just like they did the Seattle Starbucks back at WTO ’99.

Churchill, to his credit, doesn’t subscribe to any meaningless “praxis of personal purity,” so he takes his coffee (black) with a shrug and lights a Pall Mall. I ask if he’s an anarchist, and though they have an affinity, he says no. He’s an Indigenist. Not quite sure what that entails, I ask him to explain. He’s a wordy bugger, and goes on for a good while about a “consciously synchronous level of population” and a “latitude of action that is governed in a self-regulating manner” and a “unity in the differentiation that’s consonant with natural order.” I figure this would all go down a lot easier if I’d first eaten peyote.

Did I Miss It?

The sixtieth anniversary of Franklin Roosevelt’s death was last Tuesday. I’m surprised that the MSM didn’t make a big deal of it, considering that he was arguably the last (and perhaps only) great president that the Democrat Party has issued.

The Rest Of The Story?

Ten years later, Fox News isn’t letting the Oklahoma City story die.

The government’s story continues to not hold water. For example, check out this strawman:

Editor’s Note: Watch the FOX News Channel on Sunday at 9 p.m. EDT for “The Oklahoma City Bombing: Unanswered Questions.” And check out FOXNews.com on Monday for a story showing how FBI agents are convinced they got the right men.

No one is claiming that they didn’t get “the right men.” The point isn’t about whether or not McVeigh and Nichols did it, though the defenders of the government action would have us believe that that’s the issue in contention. Everyone agrees that they did (as far as I know). The question is whether or not there were others involved, who remain free. And more seriously, if there were foreign governments involved that the Clinton administration would have found politically inconvenient to finger, particular since, if it restricted its investigation to “angry white guys” it could pin it on those evil right-wing Republicans.

As the article points out, the official story remains quite fishy, and there was a disturbing amount of evidence destroyed. And does this make any sense?

Oklahoma City attorney Michael Johnston said the FBI was not given all the tapes from as many as twenty-five cameras that he says were in and around the Murrah Building.

An Alternative View of Alternative Minimum Tax

There is a strong case for flat taxes. They reduce compliance (and avoidance) costs. They create a very broad base for taxes that in turn distort the economy less and have a lower dead weight social loss. The Economist says that they may be practical and feasible.

The conventional wisdom from (NYT, April 10) is that alternative minimum taxes (AMT) are bad news. An alternative view is that they are a back door way to get a flat tax. The number of people who pay AMT is expected to grow to $200 billion projected in 2015. This growth is due to three factors: deductions get more generous, maximum marginal rates stay low due to the tax cut, and inflation and growth steadily increase income. While $200 billion less than 5% of the federal budget and less than 1% of the $20 trillion economy (in 2000 constant dollars) projected for 2015, it is still a significant portion of taxpayers paying a flat tax.

If US wants a flat tax, it should do nothing about AMT, it should increase deductions like crazy and reduce the marginal rate of the non-flat tax further. For those worried about the budget deficit, the AMT rate can be raised, or perhaps Medicare and Social Security rationalized.

Biting Commentary about Infinity…and Beyond!