Economics

Losing Reserve

I am reading The Ultimate Resource 2 by Julian L. Simon (Princeton, 1996). He makes the point that commodities prices tend to decline over the course of the last couple of hundred years compared to the cost of human labor. The average US wage in 1999 dollars is growing at about 2.1% per year geometric mean from 1900-1999. The real interest rate has been about 1% (in the UK anyway).

This means that if technology were constant and reserves were constant, the real price of a commodity would rise 1%. Otherwise, it would make sense to mine as much oil as possible and put the money in the bank, or leave the oil in the ground and wait for the price to rise.

In fact from 1860-2000 the price of kerosene (see figure 5) has dropped about a factor of 6. If you look at the service kerosene was providing (lighting), it has dropped a factor of 40 from

Political Commentary

The Academic Bestiary

Sara Townsley, a graduate student in biology (among other things–she should start a blog), offers a field guide to the Cornell University campus.

The Gray-Tufted Nostalgic Lamprey. Physically less imposing than their fearsome and often irreversibly tenured colleagues, comprising the bulk of the liberal arts faculty. These herbivorous throwbacks can be identified by their poor hygiene, old Volvos and apparent lack of vertebrae or testicles. As committed Marxists, a century of genocide poses a bothersome snag; thus, they’re prone to historical revisionism and faddish prejudices. These aging, conformist pseudo-radicals still regard themselves as courageous rebels, despite having built a habitat cleansed of all but lock-step sycophants. Found in organic markets, peace protests and pricey restaurants.

It sounds like a similar habitat to Ann Arbor, Madison and Berkeley.

Biting Commentary about Infinity…and Beyond!