To The Moon, Alice

Frank Sietzen and Keith Cowing are claiming an exclusive on the administration’s new space policy, to be announced next week. Apparently they were waiting to see whether the Mars mission was going to be successful. [update: Keith writes in comments that the timing wasn’t related to the Mars landing, but doesn’t explain what did drive it.]

The visionary new space plan would be the most ambitious project entrusted to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration since the Apollo moon landings of three decades ago.

Unfortunately, there’s no evidence that NASA has been, or can be, reformed sufficiently to entrust it with such a project. I’m not sure what a “CEV” is–they don’t explain that–but I’m inferring that it’s perhaps a “Crew Excursion Vehicle,” which the Orbital Space Plane program will be morphed into. That would explain why the OSP Request For Proposal has been delayed. NASA probably knew that this was coming, and that the requirements just changed, probably necessitating a do over of the recently completed Systems Design Review.

Anyway, if true, I’m disappointed. I was hoping for a vision, rather than a destination, and one that included the American people. This is just picking up where Apollo left off, and that was a very expensive way to go. It seems to continue the philosophy that, as Trix are for kids, space is for NASA astronauts, who the rest of us get to watch on teevee. It also implies that reusable launchers don’t make sense, or can’t be done, which doesn’t help investment prospects for them privately.

If they were going to return to the sixties, it would have been much better if they’d picked up instead where the X-15 left off.

Fortunately, the private sector is doing that, and ultimately, I suspect that NASA isn’t going to be very relevant to the opening of space, regardless of this. If nothing else, assuming that it gets approval, such a program might keep them busy enough to at least not get in the way.

[Update at 8:15 PM PST]

Someone over at sci.space.policy points out this worrisome little bit:

Sources said Bush will direct NASA to scale back or scrap all existing programs that do not support the new effort.

Does that mean no more (among other things) robotic exploration of the outer planets?

Zubrin Festival

Here’s that interview with Bob Zubrin that Linda Seebach told me about yesterday.

And speaking of Dr. Zubrin, he sent me a review copy of his new science fiction novel, The Holy Land, a few weeks ago that I read and enjoyed at the time, but didn’t get around to formally reviewing. I was reminded of this by a review of it at NRO yesterday by Adam Keiper.

I have to confess that I was surprised by it, because I’d previously had no idea that Bob wrote fiction. If this is his first attempt, it makes it all the more impressive.

Everyone calls it a satire, but it’s not really, or it’s more than that. Monty Python’s The Life Of Brian was a satire of the modern Middle East (among other things), but this book is allegory, which has a long tradition of being a pointed way of illuminating issues to which we may be too close to have the proper perspective.

I found the parallels striking (though I naturally would, because I shared Bob’s apparent views on the Middle East situation prior to reading it–I’d be interested in reading a review by someone whose mind was changed by the book to see how truly effective they are), but I don’t really have anything to say about the nature or quality of the satiric parallels that Mr. Keiper didn’t already–you should go read his review. I’d like instead to point out something that I’ve seen no other reviewer do.

While the political points are sharp, one can completely ignore them and still enjoy the book, because it actually is a good story in itself. It’s yet another retelling of Romeo and Juliet (though it’s hardly love at first sight), except it has a happy ending.

Let us hope that the tragic situation that it spoofs ultimately does as well, as unlikely as that may sometimes seem, given the ancient hatreds and irrationalities that still seem to prevail there.

Mission To Nowhere?

Speaking of blindered and dyspectic views on space, the usually-smart Anne Applebaum disappoints with this WaPo editorial.

Mars, as a certain pop star once put it, isn’t the kind of place where you’d want to raise your kids. Nor is it the kind of place anybody is ever going to visit, as some of the NASA scientists know perfectly well. Even leaving aside the cold, the lack of atmosphere and the absence of water, there’s the deadly radiation. If the average person on Earth absorbs about 350 millirems of radiation every year, an astronaut traveling to Mars would absorb about 130,000 millirems of a particularly virulent form of radiation that would probably destroy every cell in his body. “Space is not ‘Star Trek,’ ” said one NASA scientist, “but the public certainly doesn’t understand that…”

…Too often, rational descriptions of the inhuman, even anti-human living conditions in space give way to public hints that more manned space travel is just around the corner, that a manned Mars mission is next, that there is some grand philosophical reason to keep sending human beings away from the only planet where human life is possible….

Right, and the Arctic isn’t the kind of place where you’d want to raise your kids. Nor is it the kind of place anybody is ever going to visit. Even leaving aside the cold, and sparseness of plants, there are the deadly polar bears. If the average person in temperate climates has to contend with wolves, an Arcticnaut traveling to that hostile clime would risk storms that might drown him in the frigid waters, or expose him to sharks.

No, space is not Star Trek, Anne, but it is an environment that is conquerable, and people exist who wish to conquer it. It’s only a matter of technology levels. African bushmen wouldn’t survive high latitudes, but the Inuit figured it out. Radiation can be shielded against. It’s very costly to do so now, given the high launch costs, but that’s a problem that’s solveable.

Earth may today be the only planet where human life is possible, but before we developed the right clothing and weapons, tropical climates were the only region of earth where human life was possible. This is not a persuasive argument for confining ourselves to a single planet, any more than it would have been to do so to a single continent.

Crowded out of the news this week was the small fact that the troubled international space station, which is itself accessible only by the troubled space shuttle, has sprung a leak.

Meaning what? That it’s therefore impossible to send people into space? There are two errors here. First, she makes the mistake that many do in believing that it can’t be done any better or cheaper than NASA does it. But even if the station springs the occasional leak, so what? So did whaling ships. It didn’t stop them from whaling–they had pumps and repair techniques. Space vehicles will be the same.

It’s interesting in the way that the exploration of the bottom of the Pacific Ocean is interesting, or important in the way that the study of obscure dead languages is important. Like space exploration, these are inspiring human pursuits. Like space exploration, they nevertheless have very few practical applications.

But space exploration isn’t treated the way other purely academic pursuits are treated. For one, the scientists doing it have perverse incentives. Their most dangerous missions — the ones involving human beings — produce the fewest research results, yet receive the most attention, applause and funding. Their most productive missions — the ones involving robots — inspire interest largely because the public illogically believes they will lead to more manned space travel.

This is simply untrue. Manned missions return much more science than robotic missions, at least when it comes to planetary exploration. We got much more science from Apollo than from all of the other lunar probes combined. The problem is that it costs a lot more money to send people (at least the way we’ve done it to date), not that they return less science.

And of course, she falls into the other trap of assuming that the only reason to send people or robots into space is for science, ignoring the potential for new resources, planet protection, and most importantly, new environments for the expansion of human freedom.

I can agree that it may not be a worthwhile expenditure of taxpayer funds to send people to other planets right now, or into space at all, but the notion that it has no value to anyone is utter nonsense. We will explore and settle space, because there are many people who wish to do so, and the means to do so are growing rapidly as technology advances and wealth increases. The issue is not if, but how and how soon, and with whose money.

[Update]

Mark Whittington has fisked this piece as well.

[Another update]

Linda Seebach (editorial writer for the Rocky Mountain News) points out via email that the Applebaum piece is an opinion column, not a WaPo editorial. She’s correct, of course.

She also says that she’ll have an interview with Bob Zubrin up tomorrow–I’ll post a link when it happens.

Non-Partisan Space Ignorance

Now here’s a blog post that I could really sink my teeth into, if I had the time. If you’re interested in space policy, and the intersection with politics and left-right ideology, this has it all in the comments. Matthew Yglesias wonders why the government explores space.

This post epitomizes the fact that space is a non-partisan issue–neither side gets it. This is, in my opinion, part of the problem, because as long as both sides agree, right or wrong, or at least as long as there’s no consensus in either party about what we should do, there’s unlikely to be little progress, because it’s not a differentiating political issue on which people vote, as I pointed out after the elections last year.

But Matthew’s comment section is chock full of the standard myths about space, by commenters both “left” and “right,” and interestingly, not being a regular reader of his blog, I was pointed to it by science writer and blogger Dave Appell, himself somewhat of a lefty who thinks that Matthew is totally out to lunch here.

An Islamic Space Program?

That’s what this article says.

Iran’s defence minister said the Islamic republic would launch its own satellite into space with an Iranian-made launch system, the official news agency IRNA reported.

“Within 18 months, Iran will launch its own satellite. Iran will be the first Islamic country to enter the stratosphere with its own satellite and its own, indigenous launch system,” Defence Minister Ali Shamkhani was quoted as saying.

I don’t know how much of this is due to bad translation, but it doesn’t make any sense as written. Something that’s only launched into the stratosphere is neither in space, nor a satellite.

It doesn’t say what kind of satellite they plan to launch, for what purpose. I also wonder if they’re planning on launching from Iran, and if so, how they’ll handle the overflight issues. Looking at a globe, there’s no ocean corridor east, so they’d have a hard time launching to low inclination without overflying Pakistan and India. If they want a high inclination (e.g., for a surveillance satellite) they’d have to do it from the south coast near the Pakistan border over the Arabian Sea, just missing Oman. If they were to skirt the Indian coastline, it looks like the lowest inclination they could get would be forty degrees or so, which would make for an expensive trip to GEO, considering the plane change.

Anyway, color me skeptical. Sounds more like bluster to me, especially considering the source.

Adaptation

The Army Reserve troops in Iraq have come up with specialized vehicles for detecting and removing roadside explosives.

Anyone who’s ever dealt with the Pentagon procurement bureaucracy knows that it can be a nightmare, but when we’re actually in a fighting war and people are dying, it’s surprising how fast red tape can be cut:

The operation caught the attention of top brass, said Lt. Col. Kent Savre, commander of the Fort Lewis Wash.-based 864th Engineer Battalion, the team?s higher headquarters.

Savre, 43, of Edina, Minn., recommended that the Army supply one system to each division in Iraq. Three weeks after filing the request, a half-dozen more sets were shipped out, Savre said.

?I?ve never seen anything like this in my 19 years in the Army,? Savre said. ?The senior leaders saw the threat and immediately bought more [systems].?

Get That Man A Blog

I’d read it.

Zell Miller zings his political party some more in today’s Opinion Journal:

I’m not sure what Al Gore will contribute. Is he going to advise Mr. Dean to roll down his shirtsleeves and put on a coat, preferably in earth tones? Will he teach him to speak in that stilted highfalutin way? Maybe he’ll teach him how to win a Southern state. Like Tennessee.

Ouch.

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