Getting Back To Normal

A year ago I observed that it was the anniversary of the JFK assassination, and for the first time in my memory, few people noticed.

I woke up this morning to a piece on NPR about it. I guess things are calming down from the shock of last fall’s events. Camelot lives on…

On the other hand, considering the Skakel conviction, and the election disaster of Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, some cracks do seem to be appearing in the Kennedy mystique and facade. They don’t seem as dominant a force as they used to.

And as Martha would say (well, actually given that I understand she’s a die-hard Democrat, maybe she wouldn’t say it…), that’s a good thing.

Well, I Feel Safer Now

A woman in Texas is going to be prosecuted for possession of too many marital aids.

I guess if you have more than six pleasuring devices, you’re a “dealer.” Apparently, she had “parties” where she would introduce women to the products, and get them “hooked,” leading them ultimately to a life of dissolution and despair, living only for their vibrator “fix.”

She could get up to two years.

Police stopped Grubbs’ truck after seeing her driving erratically, an arrest report said.

I think they meant, “driving erotically….”

Glad they have still have time to get dangerous criminals like this off the street, even while we’re being targeted by homicidal nutballs from the rest of the world.

Too Farsighted? Hardly

OK, one more space policy post, then I have to get back to paying work.

The Economist is one of the best magazines (excuse me, newspapers, as they call it Across The Pond) in the world (which unfortunately is kind of like saying they’re the smartest animal in the barnyard), but I’ve noticed that they’ve been going downhill lately, particularly in space policy matters. This week’s issue has a leader on NASA, entitled “Too Farsighted.” (Subscribers only, so I don’t bother with the link.) It seemed utterly schizophrenic to me, though it came out all right in the end.

Lucky Transterrestrial readers will get to read it anyway, even if they’re not subscribers, because I’ll stretch fair use to transcribe it here, and for lagniappe, add an additional slight fisking, but only as needed.

The Dangers Of Too Much Vision

Earlier this year, Tom Delay, a Republican congressman from Texas, accused NASA, America’s space agency, of having a “lack of vision.” He is not the first person to make this criticism and he certainly won’t be the last. But what such critics actually mean is not that the agency has no vision–but that they happen to disagree with the one that it has. In the case of Mr. Delay, his expressed dismay at the “anaemic” financing available for human spaceflight was more of a call of “Houston, we have a funding problem.”

So far, so good. No disagreement.

For what it’s worth, Mr. Delay, who is not only a “Texas congressman,” but a congressman who has many constituents who work for Johnson Space Center, just outside of Houston, is also the new Majority Leader of the House of Representatives.

Such accusations should not sting NASA, because they could not be more wrong. For one thing the agency already spends the lion’s share of its $15B annual budget on human space-flight.

Here is where they start to go off the track. How does spending billions of dollars on “human space-flight” equate to “vision”? To me, all it means is that they are spending billions of dollars in Representative Delay’s (and others’) congressional districts. There’s nothing particularly “visionary” about it per se.

For another, if there is one thing that sums up what NASA has suffered from over the past three decades, it is too much vision, not too little.

Too much vision? TOO MUCH VISION?

What have the Economist’s editors been smoking?

Let’s see what they think is evidence of “too much vision.”

And the symptoms of this are most visible in the bloated, late, over-budget and largely useless human space-flight projects that it has been pursuing since the Apollo programme.

So, their contention is that bloated bureaucracy is evidence of an overabundance of vision? On what planet?

Next, they attempt to buttress their bizarre thesis, but instead continue to undermine it.

Vision Express

After men landed on the moon, NASA needed to find something else to do, so it decided to try to put men on Mars. But Nixon turned down this grand vision.

Let me get this straight.

NASA needed something to do, so it decided to try to put men on Mars.

This is what the Economist calls a “grand vision”?

Hint: “Grand visions” have much loftier goals than satisfying the “need for something to do.” The fact that NASA chose Mars had nothing to do with vision. It had everything to do with the fact that it was a space agency, so it had to put forth something plausibly related to that portfolio.

Had NASA instead been the Department of Agriculture, its “grand vision” would have been to put inspectors in every stockyard to look for foot and mouth disease being promulgated by terrorists.

Just as a little primer for the Economist editorialists, here are some “grand visions.”

  • Reduce the cost of access to space so that even people who write leaders for the Economist can go.
  • Open up the Universe to the expansion of life and consciousness, bringing its potential to full flower, and enabling it to come to know Itself.
  • Usher in a new era of extraterrestrial resources that will bring unlimited, environmentally-friendly prosperity to the entire planet, and to those living beyond it.

Those are “grand visions.”

When’s the last time you heard anyone from NASA proposing anything like that?

[Boy, those crickets are loud.]

After a brief respite, to allow a slight reduction in blood pressure at the cluelessness (at least so far) of this leader, let us go on.

When we last left our intrepid but dumbfounded editorialists, they had just related that the evil Nixon had just nixed NASA’s “grand vision.”

And so, according to Roger Pielke, director of the Centre for Science and Technology Policy Research at the University of Colorado, Boulder, the agency simply broke the mission into three more easily sellable parts: the shuttle, the space station, and then mars. It was then left in the impossible position of having to justify each step on its own merits alone. This led to both the overselling of the shuttle and to the thin veneer of “science” that has been arranged around the space station program.

As I said, the piece is schizo. This part is actually correct, and the source of much of NASA’s problem. They have indeed been focused on Men to Mars for decades, though in a closet way, and not sufficiently so to satisfy those whose focus is, prematurely, on the Red Planet. My dispute with this thesis is that it was a fault of “vision.”

I believe that it is due instead to an appalling lack of it, a thesis in which (to the degree that I understand his complaint) I am in concurrence with Mr. Delay.

It is true that science can be done in the space station. but science can also be done dressed in a clown suit atop a large Ferris wheel. The argument ought to be over where is the best place for it.

NO, NO, NO, NO, NO!

The argument ought to be about whether or not science is the, or even a, justification for space activities. It’s always assumed that it is, for no good reason, and this unthinking and unexamined assumption is one of the things that allows NASA to get away with so much of its nonsense. The Economist fell into exactly the same trap.

They go on to expand on this theme of what kind of science can be done, and isn’t necessarily done, on a space station, in a few sentences, but I see no sense in repeating it, since it’s not really relevant to the real point or my interests, and if I avoid retyping the entire thing, I might not get sued by them.

Let’s just skip to the next graf.

The only good reason for NASA to be involved in human space-flight is to lay the ground for opening up space for everybody. It takes a vast leap of imagination to detect this reason in NASA’s present strategy.

[Thrusting fist up into the air, vigourously (note British spelling in honor of the authors, or at least the publishers…)]

YESSS!

The first sensible thing they’ve said in the entire piece, which is one of the things that makes it so disjointed and incoherent.

Let’s see where they go with this.

Fleeting visits to the moon (or, one day, to Mars) would turn the agency into little more than an elite travel agent. But for decades there has been a huge pent-up demand for flights into space. Although the private sector is finally making some progress toward this, NASA should have been there years ago. What is still needed is research and development on an economical and safe space transport for the public at large. Space, like the Wild West, can be truly opened up only by the private sector. NASA’s central goal in human space flight should be to make that possible.

Amazing. They actually get it, despite all that nonsense at the beginning about “too much vision.” You’d almost think they’d been reading my blog…

It reminds me of one of my former .sigs on Usenet.

“NASA’s mission is not to land a man on Mars. NASA’s mission is to make it possible for the National Geographic Society to land a man on Mars.”

The final paragraph is a good one, except for the part about a “science-based approach.” Guy’s, it ain’t “rocket science” any more.

All it takes is rocket engineering. But good rocket engineering.

Until NASA swaps its destination-driven thinking for a science-based approach focused on such objectives, the post-1960 generation that has grown up hoping to travel or even live in space will continue to feel betrayed. Several years ago, an organisation called the Space Frontier Foundation observed bitterly: “Thirty-six years after sending John Glenn into orbit, NASA has finally achieved the capability to send John Glenn into orbit.” NASA must find a more practical reason for the human space-flight programme. Sending people to eat all those soya beans cannot be it.

Bravo.

Down The Memory Hole

I’ve no idea whether or not it’s in response to today’s Fox News column and last night’s equivalent post (I’d like to think so), but NASA has revised their web page. Instead of saying that a viable space tourism industry is “decades away,” it now says that it’s “some years off.”

I wouldn’t argue with that.

However, it’s not totally gone. One of my favorite phrases (particularly when asked by someone to give them information easily searchable on the web) is “Google is your friend.”

It remains the case here. Space Daily retains the original version.

However, NASA is to be commended to the degree that they recognized their error, and its potential consequences, and decided to rectify it.

Thanks also to the folks who tipped me off to both the original page and the revision.

Death To The Orbital Space Plane!

I just got a press release from the Space Frontier Foundation. They seem as determined to be as much of a thorn in the Sean O’Keefe’s side as they were in Dan Goldin’s.

The following statement was released today by Space Frontier Foundation spokesman Rick Tumlinson on the subject of NASA?s request for a budget modification to develop a new Orbital Space Plane:

?The Space Frontier Foundation opposes funding for the new NASA Orbital Space Plane or any other development programs at the agency at this time. We will call on Congress to with hold any new funds for this venture until there is an investigation into the reasons for the failure of past much vaunted then cancelled programs and the resulting billions of taxpayer dollars that have been wasted.

?For over two decades the agency has put forward first one then another space vehicle program as the One Right Way to proceed, spent billions of dollars, and then cancelled or simply dropped the projects. The failure of these projects to deliver on the promises of the agency has kept the cost of entering space at an astronomical level, hamstringing all space activities including exploration programs, commercial enterprises and the operation of the International Space Station. Another major result of this erratic and inconsistent behavior has been to maintain uncertainty in the commercial space investment community, wreaking havoc on private sector initiatives that could lower costs through competition.?

I basically agree. I think that OSP is a waste of money, and simply helps maintain the status quo situation of not doing very much in space, while spending a lot of money on it.

Unfortunately though, it may be the only politically-viable option right now.

More Lack Of Headway In The War

Abd al-Rahim al-Nashiri, a leader of Al Qaeda and suspected mastermind of the USS Cole attack, has been captured.

He is the highest-ranking al-Qaida operative captured since the CIA, FBI and Pakistani authorities captured bin Laden’s operations chief, Abu Zubaydah, in Faisalabad, Pakistan, in March.

They say he’s talking, too.

On top of his whining about the evil right-wing talk radio, Tom Daschle is looking more foolish, and irrelevant, every day.

Perfectly In Character

While we’re on the subject of Democrats’ hypocritical whining about those mean right wingers, The Corner notes that last month in Hawaii, Bill Clinton responded to being called a “liar” at a campaign stop with what was almost certainly a calumny, against Newt Gingrich.

According to the post, John Fund asks if the press will report this.

Probably not. After all, Bill Clinton lying hardly qualifies as news…

A Policy Cul De Sac

There was good news for the American launch industry this week. Boeing’s newest launch vehicle, the Delta IV, had a successful launch on Wednesday.

Unfortunately, despite that, the US launch industry is in big trouble, and it’s not clear that the Bush administration has any coherent or effective strategy with which to deal with it.

Five years ago people were predicting there would be 60 commercial rocket launches a year by 2002.

Manufacturers developed a new generation of rockets hoping to win new business.

But while the rockets themselves are now ready, nobody wants them.

There will be just 21 commercial satellite launches this year.

There seems to be an inability in both industry and government to recognize that the traditional commercial launch markets, and even the traditional government (including military) launch markets, are now, and always have been, insufficient to justify the billions spent on new launch systems to satisfy them.

In light of this, it’s interesting to note that this week, the Commission on the Future of the US Aerospace Industry, chaired by former chairman of the House Science Committee, Robert Walker, released its report.

The report argues for the United States to create a “space imperative” – harnessing Department of Defense (DoD), NASA, and industry talent to build new boosters, open up public space travel, and bolster the commercial development of space.

That’s the good news. Unfortunately (while I haven’t yet read the full report) it’s short on specifics.

What is the “space imperative”? How should we “open up public space travel, and bolster the commercial development of space”?

To the limited degree that NASA’s current policy represents US civil space policy (a degree too large, in this pundit’s opinion), the answers aren’t currently very encouraging.

I had (and continue to harbor) high hopes for the new NASA administrator. But I think that he’s been getting both insufficient, and bad advice.

Let me begin by saying that I don’t believe that there’s a back-room conspiracy of black-robed bureaucrats to keep us firmly on terra firma.

That being said, NASA has often been accused by many in the space policy community of actually holding back commercial development of the new frontier, either because of unintended consequences of well-meaning endeavors, or protection of specific programmatic turf, and there’s abundant empirical evidence that such is the case.

It happened again in the past few days.

First, there was this web page from the NASA science directorate. Here’s the key excerpt, just a few paragraphs down:

A viable space-tourism industry is, however, decades away.

“Decades away.”

They state this as though it’s an indisputable fact, rather than an opinion of the “NASA rocket scientists” who wrote the web page.

Let’s consider an even more egregious and related example, because it undoubtedly had much wider coverage. NASA administrator Sean O’Keefe says that the goal of reducing launch costs (currently about ten thousand dollars a pound) by a factor of ten is “unrealistic.”

“I haven’t found anybody who can attest to the fact that there is any technology that could achieve that…”

One wonders how hard he looked.

Now, put yourself in the place of an investor considering a space tourism venture. You know that for it to be ultimately successful, the costs must come down, dramatically. You also know that it must provide a return in a very few years in order to make any investment sense at all.

First you read a NASA website that says that the industry won’t exist in a viable form for decades.

Then (because you’re a smart, and not a dumb investor) you do due diligence, and further investigate, and you read another article that says that the administrator of NASA, the premier space agency in the world, says that no technology exists to significantly reduce the launch costs to the point necessary to make the space tourism viable.

What do you do?

If you’re a typical investor, and you believe that if NASA can’t do it, no one can, you tell the prospective investee, “Sorry, it’s just too risky. NASA says it can’t be done for decades…”

The problem is that Administrator O’Keefe’s point is both right and wrong.

If one constricts one’s thinking to the current commercial market, and the pathetic goals for the government space program, he’s right. There’s no technology that can dramatically reduce costs for any vehicle that only flies a few times a year.

Indeed, there’s no cost justification for any new launch vehicle, because considering the development costs for space launch vehicles (particularly those managed by the govenment, as such a new vehicle would be), it would never pay back the investment at the current trivial flight rate.

But if one wants to consider new (previously unconsidered) markets, the technology to achieve those cost goals is trivial.

Launch costs are not a technology problem–they are a market problem. Until the decision makers in government recognize this reality, we will make no progress.

The cancellation of SLI and the “next-generation Shuttle” was a good thing, but as is usually the case in correct government decisions, it was for the wrong reason.

If there is really a goal to reduce costs of launch, the policy makers in Washington have to rethink their basic assumptions.

If the trivial space goals that are currently planned are satisfactory, then indeed there is no need for a new launch system, including the newly envisioned Crew Transfer Vehicle. The manned space program, at its current activity level, is not worth investing another dime in.

If, on the other hand, we want to be a truly space-faring nation, then the NASA administrator needs to stop listening to folks who tell him that significant cost reduction is impossible, and instead seek out some who will tell him how to achieve it.

If we’re unwilling to question the fundamental assumptions behind the current space program, we’ve driven into a cul de sac. As anyone who’s done so knows, there’s only one way out of that. One must turn on the light, look at the map, determine how one ended up in such a place, and turn completely around to get on the right road.

I hope that our space agency is up to the challenge but, sadly, I see little to indicate that’s the case.

Biting Commentary about Infinity…and Beyond!