They Never Learn

From SpaceRef:

NASA and aerospace industry representatives will announce results of the Space Launch Initiative’s first milestone review, which narrowed the field of potential technologies and architecture designs for our nation’s next reusable launch vehicle. NASA’s Space Launch Initiative is designing the next-generation space transportation system by first developing the technologies needed to ensure a safer, more reliable system that can be operated at a much lower cost.

If I could spare any, I’d be pulling my hair. I hope that this is just inertia, and it’s something that O’Keefe will fix when he’s got the ISS budget situation under control.

There should not be a “nation’s next reusable launch vehicle.” That was (in Hayek’s words) the fatal conceit of both the Shuttle and of the ill-fated X-33 program. NASA has to get out of the vehicle development business, and simply put incentives into place for private industry to develop new vehicles. If NASA is in charge, it will be doomed to failure, and if there is a single vehicle, it will be another Shuttle-like disaster from a cost standpoint, because it will once again be one-size-fits all, excelling at nothing.

We don’t need a new launch vehicle. We need a new launch industry. And the Space Launch Initiative, in anything resembling its current incarnation, should be strangled in the cradle.

Asteroidal Incentives

Congressman Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA), chairman of the House Space and Aeronautics Subcommittee, has introduced a bill offering prizes for amateur asteroid sightings. It’s done in honor of astronaut Pete Conrad (who was also a space entrepreneur, having founded Universal Space Lines, though the article doesn’t mention it).

I was confused about the prize, however:

The first category is an award for the amateur astronomer who discovers the largest asteroid crossing in near-Earth orbit…

How will they know when someone has won? There’s no way to tell that a larger one isn’t out there somewhere still awaiting discovery. There would have to be some kind of time limit on it (say, an annual award for the largest object found in a calendar year) for this to make any sense.

What I really like about this is that it sets a precedent for government-sponsored prizes, which could have a much larger impact on improving access to space than any number of NASA’s technology programs, if properly deployed.

The Cancer Continues

Thomas Hawthorne has been heavily engaged in the fray over in the comments section of the last post on this subject, and seems to be at least attempting to argue issues (though not very well), so I’ll do him the courtesy of addressing his arguments, such as they are. I’m spending a lot of time on this, and dealt with it in my Fox column last week, because I think that it’s a very important topic.

I should note that there is no ability for people to edit their posts in the comment section, and Thomas noted in a follow-up that there were many grammatical and spelling errors in the following. It is duly noted, and no more will be said on the subject–I’m more interested in the substance. The only time I comment on others’ writing style is when it’s in a post criticizing my writing…

WOW!!! What a reaction!! Thank you for proving my point that you guys would rather call names like children than debate.

Note that this is from the same person who variously accused me and others of being, among other things, “extreme militia types,” “conservatives,” and (horror of horrors!) “Republicans,” with zero evidence.

For the record, I am not now, nor have I ever been, any of those things. I wish people could develop a more sophisticated sense of political ideologies than simply left-right.

“Marxist scum?” I have to remember that one. First Barb, I never said you were Hilter. The reason why I used that because YOU said exploitation was not bad….but it is. How could you not believe that?

It is not, unless you’re using some narrow definition of it that makes it so by that definition.

When I look up the word “exploit” (verb form) on dictionary.com, the first definition is: “To employ to the greatest possible advantage: exploit one’s talents.” Only the second definition deals with unethical or selfish behavior. Now perhaps Mr. Hawthorne believes that it is bad to get the most out of one’s ability, but I hope not. For instance, when I stick a solar panel on my roof, and power up my granola oven with it, I’m exploiting the energy of the sun. I would presume that he doesn’t find that unethical or evil. We are simply proposing to do the same thing in space.

I am ALL for human advance. But how can colonize another planet when we can even take care of this one? Anyone pleae explain this logic.

Yes. You see, in logic, we have these things called premises. We also have things called a syllogism. Your argument is broken on both counts. Your premise (“we cannot take care of this one”) is false. We are quite capable of doing so, and in fact aren’t doing all that bad a job of it. Go read Lomborg for more details.

But even if, just for entertainment and the sake of the argument, we granted your premise, your conclusion would still not necessarily follow. You’re missing another premise in order to make it a valid argument, to wit: an inability to properly steward one planet necessarily implies an inability to do so on all planets. There’s no reason to suppose that this is so.

For instance, this might be an extraordinarily difficult and complex planet to manage, and others might be easier. Or since we’re starting clean on the new planet, we have ample time to learn how to manage things before they get out of control, particularly considering all of the lessons learned from this one.

And actually, there’s a third unspoken premise–that we are going to settle only on planets. Many people believe that it makes more sense to simply build floating cities out of debris in the solar system (asteroids, comets, etc.) What would be unethical about that? How could we be said to screw up something that hadn’t even existed until we constructed it? Unless, of course, you believe that asteroids and other space rocks have rights…

Second Rand, you give me planet that can support HUMAN life….Mars? When you get there go ahead a take you helmet of and breathe in that wonderful air.

You don’t seem to have understood my point. There are many places on earth that we cannot survive without technology (e.g., extremely high latitudes). An unsheltered human being will die in short order in a settlement on the Bering Sea. Yet people (e.g., the Inuit) have been living there for centuries, perhaps millennia.

Why? Because they employ technology. We can do the same thing on Mars, or even in free space. And eventually, we could even terraform Mars so that we could come out of the domes, and take off our helmets. I simply fail to see the relevance of the ability of a naked human animal to live in an environment to the ethical considerations of moving there.

Unless, that is, you believe that the Inuit should pack up and leave as well, and go and sin no more. If so, please explain why.

Third J. Walsilesky, it’s our right because WE say so? Who are we? What makes us great enough that we have absolutely no restraint and clarity to blindly go and do whatever we want.

Who else will decide?

Seriously, if not us, who? We are the people who will go. If you believe in human freedom, that is sufficient. But perhaps you don’t believe in things like that.

Fourth David, who in the world said anything about religious beliefs? That has absolutely nothing to do with this discussion! I am talking about ethics, I don’t know what you talking about.

Not to speak for him, but I assume that he means that, since many of your statements lack logic and facts, that your beliefs must be based on some sort of religious faith. This doesn’t mean necessarily in the sense of Christianity, etc.–it’s more likely some form of paganism, and worship of inanimate objects (such as rocks on Mars), even if you don’t explicitly recognize it as such.

And here lies my whole arguement. There’s a great line in Jurrasic Park by Jeff Glodbum that goes something like, “they were so caught up with if they could, that they didn’t think about if they should.”

We have thought about it. Or at least I have. We believe that we not only can, but should.

My arguement is that since the beginning of time man has evolved in extraordinary ways. We’ve built huge cities, created technology that puts one person from one side of the world in direct contact with another person on the other side. BUT what about the the negative things human have done? There is more pollution in the world then there have ever been.

That’s not really true, at least in all cases. For instance, the air in American cities (particularly Los Angeles) is much better than it was forty years ago. London had much more of a pollution problem in the nineteenth century than it does now.

And actually, much of it is being reduced. It will continue to do so as nations grow wealthier and can afford to do more cleanup, and as technologies increase efficiency and allow us new techniques for environmental amelioration.

Not only have we created the atomic bomb, but it has been used. The quest for the best technology created and arms race between countries that can destroy each other 100 times over with a click of a button. My point is that when people make mistakes, then tend to learn from them so they can make better decisions next time around.

Ignoring the hyperbole (no nation has that capability), I don’t think that anyone here would disagree.

We have a chance to expand the human race beyond this planet which is very awesome to think about, and I am very much for it. But RIGHT NOW we live on this planet and we are doing everything in our power to destroy it.

Nonsense. If we wanted to do everything in our power to destroy it, we could do much worse. In fact, as already noted, we are actually improving things in many ways, and will continue to do so as the technology advances, as we overthrow hierarchies in the third world that keep their people in poverty, and as the world population starts to decline in the next few decades, it will improve even more.

Eventually, as we develop the capability to move out into space, and move people off the earth, it can become a large nature park and vacation location, which is the use for which it’s ultimately best suited, in my opinion.

This ought to be a goal that all environmentalists can get behind. I wonder why they don’t?

Not just be pollution but by wars, and extreme globalization.

“Extreme globalization”? What’s wrong with globalization? It’s the only means by which the world’s poor will climb out of poverty.

How can we have the ego to think that we can go to another planet and blindly believe that it won’t happen again?

No one said that we would. It (whatever “it” is that’s bad) could happen again, but we will do our best to prevent it. But the fact that we can’t guarantee that it won’t happen is no reason not to attempt it. Because if we fail to go, it is a certainty that most of the known universe will remain barren of life, and that would be a tragedy in itself.

You guys choose to focus to good on the good mankind has done which is fine. BUT you also choose to disregard the negative things that mankind has done which is very dangerous.

We are not disregarding that. However, unlike you, we have faith in humanity.

Before you go into any venture, gain some wisdom.

Physician, heal thyself.

Now let me kind of wrap this up, because I have to move on to other topics. My opponents’ position seems to be that I am hell bent on going out and pillaging the universe, without regard to ethics or morality, or thought. This is utter nonsense, and a strawman argument.

My only argument is that we are capable of settling the solar system, that there is, as far as we know, nothing to “destroy” or “ravage” out there, but that if we find it, we will use sensitivity developed over the past few centuries, and lessons from our earthly development, to preserve it to the best of our ability. But even if we fail, and we do have the occasional mishap, the net gain will still be positive, because we will be bringing life to places where there currently is none.

My argument is not with people who think that we should “be careful out there.” I agree. My argument is with people who think that I am incapable of doing so, and that I and mine must therefore be quarantined to one tiny planet, in a vast lifeless universe.

As a poster on sci.space.policy. put it, “People who cannot tell the difference between malignant cancerous growth and the sudden growth spurt of an awkward teenager are very, very scary.”

Indeed.

Faux Pas

One of the definitions of “faux pas” is when a politician accidentally tells the truth.

Along those lines is this statement by Congressman Ron Paul.

I don’t know for sure that it’s legitimate, but I have no reason to think not, given other things that he’s said in the past. Without getting into the details of what he said (you can go read it yourself if this post piques your curiousity), I want to reiterate one metapoint.

The other day, I made a huge “gaffe” on national TV: I told the truth about the crimes of the U.S. government. As you can imagine, the ceiling fell in, and a couple of walls too. Congressman are supposed to support the government, I was told. Oh, it’s okay to criticize around the edges, but there are certain subjects a member of the House of Representatives is not supposed to bring up. But I touched the real “third-rail” of American politics, and the sparks sure flew.

A congressman has no duty to support “the government,” at least if that means supporting every action that every government employee takes, or even supporting every law or agency that has been created by an out-of-control Congress. A congressman’s (and President’s) duty, and oath, is to support the Constitution. While I disagree with Congressman Paul on a variety of issues (though I’m sure nowhere near as many as most people do), he is one of the few people in Congress who gets that significant difference.

Biting Commentary about Infinity…and Beyond!