Mathematics, Media Criticism, Political Commentary, Science And Society, Technology and Society

Climate Change And Extreme Weather

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People like Seth Borenstein were excited to link to this paper yesterday.

“This new study helps get the actual probability or odds of human influence,” said University of Arizona climate scientist Jonathan Overpeck, who wasn’t part of the research. “This is key: If you don’t like hot temperature extremes that we’re getting, you now know how you can reduce the odds of such events by reducing greenhouse gas emissions.”

Lead author Erich Fischer, a climate scientist at ETH Zurich, a Swiss university, and colleague Reto Knutti examined just the hottest of hot days, the hottest one-tenth of one percent. Using 25 different computer models. Fischer and Knutti simulated a world without human-caused greenhouse gas emissions and found those hot days happened once every three years.

Then they calculated how many times they happen with the current level of heat-trapping gases and the number increases to four days. So three of the four are human caused, the team said.

This is crap science, because it’s based on crap models, that have been failing.

Interestingly, even Kevin Trenberth agrees with me:

“The paper is interesting and has some results that may be reasonably OK,” he said. “However, the paper is based almost entirely on models with little or no validation or relations to the real world. None of the models do precipitation realistically, and some are quite bad.”

You don’t say. Garbage in, garbage out.

History, Media Criticism, Political Commentary

The Latest Clinton Scandals

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Will they (finally) be the end of the Clintons?

I’d like to think so, but I’ve been disappointed repeatedly at the complete acceptance of criminality and corruption from the Clinton gang by their party. I can guarantee you of one thing: They think they’ll continue to get away with it, because they always have.

[Monday-afternoon update]

The fall of the House of Clinton?

I hope so, but I’ll believe it when I see it.

[Bumped]

[Update a few minutes later]

Well, she’s clearly lost Ron Fournier:

You don’t have to be a conspiracy theorist to know that foreign companies and countries expected something in return for donating to the Clinton foundation rather than the countless other charities not connected to the U.S. presidency.

You don’t have to be a lawyer to know the Clintons violated ethics rules.

You don’t have to be a historian to know their ethical blind spot has decades-old roots.

You don’t have to be a political scientist to know this behavior contributes to the public’s declining trust in its leaders.

But to believe this is just about the actions of a book author, the mainstream media, and Republicans, it helps to be a Clinton.

Let’s hope that’s not enough this time.

Law, Media Criticism, Political Commentary

The Recent Democrat Fascism In Wisconsin

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Will the Supreme Court take the case?

Because both a separate federal ruling in a different case, and a state court ruling as part of the investigation, have halted the investigation for now, this Supreme Court decision will not directly affect the current status.

But, the nature of the case necessarily involves the underlying ability of states to regulate campaign coordination and how that ability interacts with First Amendment rights.

That is a huge issue, which the Justices may decide to reach as part of a ruling if they take the case. That’s what has Democrats so scared about this case — they fear it could turn into another case of the magnitude of Citizens United, in which the Supreme Court again upholds the constitutional rights of citizens to express views cooperatively.

Let’s hope.

[Update early afternoon]

What did the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel know, and when did it know it?

At the time of the raid, Archer saw an individual that she believed to be a reporter, standing in her lawn. But the question became: How would a reporter even know that Archer’s home was being raided? Someone had to tip the Journal-Sentinel off. But under Wisconsin law, disclosure of a search warrant’s issuance, prior to its execution, is a Class I felony and could also violate the judge’s secrecy order of the John Doe investigation itself.

People should be doing jail time for this. A lot of high-level Wisconsin Democrats. And maybe journalists, too.

General, Technology and Society

The Nepal Quake

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Amidst the tragedy of hundreds killed, it’s had a devastating effect on Everest expeditions, as climbing season has started. Devastation in the base camp, and a lot people all right, but trapped at higher elevations. This is one hazard most hadn’t been considering when they decided to climb, though if they knew their history, they’d know that the region was due for something like this. A quake not far from this one in 1934 killed thousands.

[Update a while later]

“Since 1570, 85% of the world’s earthquake fatalities have occurred in the Alpine/Himalayan collision belt.”

[Update mid afternoon]

Here’s the latest from the WaPo.

[Update a while later]

Here’s a roundup from Buzzfeed, with several pictures from the shattered base camp.

I wonder what all those Buddhists think when they see their iconic temples destroyed like that?

[Late Sunday-morning update]

Video of the quake and avalanche at the base camp. [Warning: Bad words in multiple languages]

[Bumped]

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