The latest Field Poll from California implies that McClintock will be the spoiler who will give the race to Bustamante. It will be used, of course, as ammunition for the Schwarzenegger camp to pressure him to drop out. Frustratingly (at least to me), the poll does a Schwarzenegger matchup against Bustamante without McClintock, but it doesn’t do a McClintock-Bustamante matchup sans Schwarzenegger.

If I were McClintock, I’d take some of the little money he’s spending on ads to do my own poll that did exactly that. It would do two things. First, it might provide a reality check to see if he really has a chance, and second, if it shows that he does, then it would provide counterleverage, allowing him to actually pressure Schwarzenegger to drop out.

[Update on Tuesday afternoon]

Dan Weintraub has some relevant data:

The poll is a bit dated, but there’s lots of other stuff to chew on, including these head-to-head match-ups:

Schwarzenegger 49
Bustamante 42

and

McClintock 41
Bustamante 47

That looks like the same forty percent that voted for Simon last fall. It still doesn’t answer the question of who would get Arnold’s vote if he dropped out, though. Bustamante would probably get some of it, but he’s not likely to get that full forty seven percent–there are too many donkey-like alternatives (Green Party, Arianna). But it’s more likely that McClintock would pick up the full forty one percent without Arnold in the race–with Ueberroth out, he’s really the only serious Republican left. So it’s got to look tantalizing to him, and it weakens the case for him dropping out.