We Aren’t Doomed

David Levey and Stuart Brown have an antidote for global gloomsaying about the US economy in the latest issue of Foreign Affairs.

The U.S. dollar will remain dominant in global trade, payments, and capital flows, based as it is in a country with safe, well-regulated financial markets. Provided U.S. firms maintain their entrepreneurial edge — and despite much anxiety, there is little reason to expect otherwise — global asset managers will continue to want to hold portfolios rich in U.S. corporate stocks and bonds. Although foreign private demand for U.S. assets will fluctuate — witness the slowdown in purchases that precipitated the decline in the U.S. dollar in 2002 and 2003 — rapid growth of world financial wealth will allow the proportion of U.S. assets held by foreigners to increase….

…Only one development could upset this optimistic prognosis: an end to the technological dynamism, openness to trade, and flexibility that have powered the U.S. economy. The biggest threat to U.S. hegemony, accordingly, stems not from the sentiments of foreign investors, but from protectionism and isolationism at home.