How can any sane person support Ares/Orion with development costs like this?
I can’t tell if the “life cycle” ends with the first launch in 2015 or includes some X number of additional launches beyond that. Regardless, the numbers are impressive, even in these days of trillions:
/– Ares I only : $17B to $20B
/– Orion capsule only: $20B to $29B
And no, that doesn’t include ops costs. As “Red” notes in comments:
Something like this was already done at Cosmic Log, but it would be interested to translate that $20B + $29B (~$50B) in more understandable terms:
25,000 Lunar Lander Challenges
100 COTS programs
> 500 Lunar Prospectors
500,000 XCOR Lynx tickets
250,000 SS2 tickets
500 BA 330 modules, or 1000 years of half-year BA 330 module leases
1000 Falcon 9 launches (mix of regular and heavy)
>5000 Falcon 1 launches
2000 Google Lunar X PRIZEs
1000 smallsats averaging $50M… etc … That’s assuming no discounts for bulk purchases … and if you want variety in your space program, take off a zero from each of the above and have them all …
On the other hand, an administration that just increased the deficit by a factor of four, to trillions, probably thinks fifty billion is just couch-cushion change.
Rand, if you look at the GAO report on the large systems in the DoD you will see that the delta cost for an EELV is less than $200M dollars. An EELV heavy can put 3500 kg of payload on the lunar surface. For the cost of Ares 1 (we know it is going to be more than $20 billion but lets use that number) we could fly 100 EELV’s and put 350,000 kg of payload on the lunar surface.
Ares sure sounds like a deal to me!
For the cost of Ares 1 (we know it is going to be more than $20 billion but lets use that number) we could fly 100 EELV’s and put 350,000 kg of payload on the lunar surface.
Apples and oranges, Dennis. Ares I isn’t designed to put one ounce on the Moon!
Apples and oranges, Dennis. Ares I isn’t designed to put one ounce on the Moon!
The system that is supposed to put payload on the lunar surface (Ares V), is going to cost twice what the Ares 1 does. That is an awful lot of EELV flights.
Payload to orbit is the only fair metric for a launch vehicle. Payload to lunar surface includes dependencies on too many other vehicles.
Final Operation Capability for block 1 is currently scheduled for Orion 4.
Those numbers for Ares 1 and Orion are amazing. One wonders why NASA planned to spend so much for so little.
How bad is it? It’s so bad even the STS is cheap by comparison. It’s the cost equivalent of the Shuttle ferrying more than 1,000 tonnes of cargo and more than 300 crew.
Dennis Wingo Says:
March 3rd, 2009 at 9:54 am
“An EELV heavy can put 3500 kg of payload on the lunar surface.”
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I slapped my forehead in frustrustion at how we already have Delta 4 heavies practically ready to use and we still choose to waste so much money with the Ares crap. China’s Long March 5 is being used to loft a space station, and presumably be used with their lunar program as well. China boasted that the Long March can hoist more cargo per lbs. of propellant than any other rocket in the world, except for the Delta 4 heavy.