There’s no wireless in the meeting rooms, so I can’t do anything real time. I’m typing this from the patio, eating a ten-dollar pastrami sandwich (didn’t pay for the luncheon where Elon Musk is speaking, and getting a von Braun award).
What was interesting about the morning plenary session was the emphasis. In past meetings, they might have led with the wonderful things that NASA has in store for us. This year, the lead speaker was George Nield, head of the FAA-AST office, followed by Jeff Greason, CEO of XCOR Aerospace, and then Will Whitehorn, head of Virgin Galactic, so clearly, the conference programming committee considered suborbital tourism to be the headliner at this event. NASA’s plans (soon to likely be dramatically altered) will be presented tomorrow morning.
Both the Greason and Whitehorn talks were good. Jeff made his usual points, but he started to show a little gam on orbital, saying that he has started thinking about it, and dropping a couple hints. They have seriously depleted their bin of technology problems in suborbital, and are moving forward with the Lynx, but orbital promises to replenish it, so they’re thinking about how to get someone to pay them to solve the new issues, as they did with suborbital. He is clearly aiming toward a two-stage reusable system, with a flyback first stage, horizontal takeoff and land. This implies a very large first stage, or a very expensive first stage, or some combination, and he didn’t want to show us any pictures, because he wasn’t sure what direction it would go. Also no discussion of whether or not it would be an airbreather or rocket.
He also made some comments about flight test, and not to panic when something goes wrong, which is why it’s called flight test. In the days of blogs and texting, it’s easy to gin up a lot of speculation and doomsday warnings that are unwarranted, compared to the old days when no one paid any attention to what was going on at Edwards until the results were released. This was undoubtedly in reference to the recent kerfuffle over White Knight Two tail dragging. He said a lot more good stuff, but I suspect that others will have posts up. Jeff Foust has probably been twittering.
Will Whitehorn, refreshingly, didn’t bash Lynx (perhaps because he was grateful to Jeff for his flight test comments? Or perhaps he’s just realized that it’s not good marketing). He actually praised parts of Jeff’s speech. He says that there will be a flyover of Spaceport America with WK2 at the dedication this June, and captive carry of SS2 by the end of the year, perhaps with a drop and glide test. Engine integration will occur next year. He also showed video of hybrid engine tests at Capistrano. More later.
“and are moving forward with the Lynx”
Does XCOR have the funds for Lynx? I recall they said it could be done for 17 million. I suspect it will be 8-10X that.
Thanks for the reportage. Good stuff.
Heh, I love that phrase “deplete their bin of problems”. Was that your language or Jeff’s? Just curious. Thanks for the update.
Although building Mach 3 airplanes is something humanity knows how to do, it’s unclear if XCOR does. My main concern is how they have done a lot of work on the engine and no work on the airframe. It’s eminently doable but not as trivial as it might look at first.
I suspect it will be 8-10X that.
No one around here gives a tinker’s damn what you “suspect,” since your “suspicions” are suspect.
Was that your language or Jeff’s?
It may not have been an exact quote, but it was something like that.
My main concern is how they have done a lot of work on the engine and no work on the airframe.
They have done a lot of work on the airframe. In fact, they have completed initial wind-tunnel tests on it. That’s where the bulk of their effort has been. At this point, engines are something they can do in their sleep, or at least, as Jeff said this morning, with their left hand. In fact, he pointed out that this is the first engine that they’ve developed where they had the luxury of working on it in their spare time, and tweaking it slowly, rather than it being a crash project, which all previous engines have been. The engine remains ahead of the airframe, but that allows them to focus on the latter.
Pete, we have done work on the airframe, and are doing work on the airframe. We just don’t talk much about it.
Thanks, I’m happy to be wrong about it.
Speaking of XCOR, Orlando Sentinel is reporting Greason is on the Augustine Commission panel
“I suspect it will be 8-10X that.”
You breathlessly reported on Rocketplane when they were claiming they could build the XP for 18 million. RPK went nowhere despite Millions. Virgin Galactic is aiming at $250 Million. EADS Astrium says it’s a Billion for
their bird. Lynx is smaller, but 10X smaller?
If you think XCOR is significantly smarter then the rest of the industry I suggest you put very dime you have into them.
My brief visit to XCOR earlier this month (thanks, Aleta) revealed a disciplined and economical business operation. I don’t know how much cash XCOR or anyone else would require, but I DO know that the amount of cash required is dropping with every advance in the union of information and manufacturing technology.
Now if I can just scrape together that 95k ticket price….
You breathlessly reported on Rocketplane when they were claiming they could build the XP for 18 million.
I did? “Breathlessly?”
And you know that they couldn’t have how…? How many “Millions” (didn’t anyone ever teach you proper capitalization?) did they spend on it?
What a maroon.
Grammar flames are the refuge of the idealess.
and I merely need to point you to http://www.transterrestrial.com/?p=4641
for a “breathless” description which includes a discussion of the Oklahoma investment in RpK.
RpK Millions spent and nothing to show.
There is nothing “breathless” about that interview except to loons who don’t know how to read. And how do you know how many millions were spent, and what there is to show? Oh, that’s right, you’re as clueless about that as you are about everything else.
“And how do you know how many millions were spent, and what there is to show?”
I know how much the State of Oklahoma invested, because, it is in statute.
http://www.okgazette.com/p/12776/a/2256/Default.aspx is a skeptical look at RiP.
or
http://www.okgazette.com/p/12776/a/658/Default.aspx?ReturnUrl=LwBEAGUAZgBhAHUAbAB0AC4AYQBzAHAAeAAslashAHAAPQAxADIANwAyADkA
If you ever look at the Slide Shows Lauer shows off, it’s all conceptual stuff. None of the work is much past conceptual. A good 4 person team should be able to run a conceptual study in 4-6 months.
It’s a real pity, the state is out a heck of a lot of money, and zip was ever produced.
“There is nothing “breathless” about that interview”
” three children (two beautiful daughters, and a son, of whom Mitchell is apparently too charitable to provide a physical description, though I’m sure he’s probably a strapping handsome lad as well),”
I call them as I see them.
Now how much was spent? I know what the public sector spent. What ended up lining various peoples pockets, well ask your buddies.