…but he doesn’t have a prayer in Florida:
With reports that President Obama’s support among Jewish voters has dropped by half, one can’t help but think that poor Kendrick Meek is paying the price for the buyer’s remorse over Obama that some Democrats are experiencing these days. In a private discussion about condo Democrats supporting Crist, one highly placed and in-the-know Democratic strategist put it to me this way: “The disenchantment that community privately feels towards Obama makes it very unlikely they will support another black Democrat anytime soon.”
As evidenced in the latest Rasmussen poll, moderate Republicans are coming home, and Marco Rubio is again leading a three-way race between Rubio, Crist and Meek by a significant margin, leaving the Democrats alone to kill one another.
What kind of an idiot would vote for Charlie Crist at this point?
A Florida Democrat.
Independants tend to peak early and drop off rapidly.
Yours,
Tom
I suppose if they could accidentally vote for Pat Buchanan, anything is possible.
I found the insertion of the word “Black” into the description of who would vote for who quite jarring. I clicked through to the original piece, and it didn’t clear it up. I think it is a lot of nonsense.
To flesh out my position: Illinois voters were quite disenchanted with Senator Carol Mosley Braun, an African-American and a Democrat, and although she had defeated an incumbent, she lost after one term to a (male) Republican. But this disenchantment didn’t stop Obama from easily winning his senate race primary. I think it was because, aside from the identify politics, voters actually judged each candidate as an individual. Obama was clearly the best of the bunch in his primary (winning support from Paul Simon’s daughter), and since Florida Democrats aren’t all that different from Illinois Democrats, Meeks will win or lose on his own individual merits.
Illinois voters are different from Florida’s “condo Democrats.” It’s a cultural thing; like many Democrats who rallied behind Obama for being “historic,” the condo Dems don’t know that many black people, at least as individuals.
All four of my grandparents were Florida condo Democrats (formerly from NY, of course). I’m familiar with Jewish voters in both Chicagoland and Palm Beach. You’re right that the populations aren’t especially integrated racially, but they are the same in that regard, as well as in many other ways. Both populations are committed in principle to looking past race and judging people as individuals.
It’s been my observation that they do insist this is true. It has not been my observation that it actually is.
Ouch. Still, I believe Illinois (along with largely segregated Chicago) is analogous to Florida, and should give hope to who like to see race become less of a reason to vote for or against someone. The key difference between Illinois and Florida, so obvious neither of us actually mentioned it, is the advanced age of the Florida condo voters…
The key difference between Illinois and Florida, so obvious neither of us actually mentioned it, is the advanced age of the Florida condo voters…
That is certainly a difference, but it’s not the only one, and not necessarily the most important one. Another is the completely different culture. Illinois is the Midwest. South Florida (at least Palm Beach and Broward) is the sixth borough of New York.
New Yorkers visiting Chicago’s Northshore neighborhoods and suburbs will be loath to admit that there are any similarities, and will be quick to point out differences (like the less aggressive driving style), but then they can go have a nosh at NY Bagel & Bialy (or their knock-off competitor, Chicago Bagel & Bialy)…
The importance of Jews, by the way, is completely overstated — we tend to vote, but there aren’t that many of us. I’d love to see a comparison between how big people think the Jewish vote is, and how big it really is. I don’t have the voting stats, but for population as a whole, Florida is the state with the 3rd highest proportion of Jews, at 4.6%, while Illinois is in tenth place with 2.3%. Palm Beach County is only 14.8% Jewish. Of course, these numbers are probably overly precise because if you get two Jews in a room, there will be three opinions over what counts as Jewish.