6 thoughts on “The Turkey Fiasco”

  1. Conrad Black falls back onto the tired & discredited policy of “spheres of influence” and drawing lines on the map by “great powers”.

    Did he even think to ask Belarussians what they thought?

    Arbitrary lines defined by “great powers” on the map don’t work. i.e. Curzon Line, Durant Line, etc.

  2. I agree with Alan. Conrad Black didn’t even think to ask what Russia wanted. Putin rebuked Byelorussia’s calls for re-union, because Lukashenko (Byelorussia’s dictator) dreams of running a reconstituted USSR. And Ukraine is even more complicated.

  3. I just noticed, to my surprise, that freedomhouse.org gives Russia worse scores than Belarus (spelling corrected). And Ukraine, for all its problems, is actually a free country. So, regardless of the division between East and West, Black is proposing that Russia take over a free country. Hmmph.

  4. I second the opinions expressed thus far. Black is an idiot. If you want to encourage bad actors to shape up, you don’t do it by unilaterally making them gifts. Russia deserves to be treated with a long-term policy of malign neglect – hem it in wherever possible and wait for it to demographically implode over the upcoming century.

    Black is onto one good idea, though, and that is the salutary effect that might be had if certain borders were rearranged to American benefit. Historically, the penalty for unsuccessful bad behavior by nation-states and empires – including defections by erstwhile allies – is to lose territory. In the limiting case such losses can equal 100% and effect national oblivion. Unlike Black’s perfidious and profoundly unhelpful notion of selling out Ukraine, I propose the following two criteria for such territorial revisions:

    (1) Our friends should unambiguously win.

    (2) Our enemies should unambiguously lose.

    The following steps should be taken in accordance with these criteria:

    (1) Destroy and dismember Iran – in concert with Israel if they are game, alone if we must. As Iran would almost certainly try using their client regimes in Syria, Gaza and Hezbollahstan (South Lebanon) to attack Israel in response, I think the Israelis might well be persuaded to go partners on a variation of 1967’s pre-emptive pest control project. The rough division of responsibility would be: we handle Iran, Israel handles its rude next-door neighbors. Seize and hold Khuzestan, where 90% of Iranian oil and gas comes from, along with the oil loading facilities in the Gulf. Ditto for Kurdish-majority Iran. Announce that we would look favorably upon independence for Iran’s Azeri- and Baluchi-majority provinces. Iran ceases to exist leaving a rump Persia with little oil revenue and major rebellions in half its remaining territory.

    (2) Deliver an ultimatum to Turkey that the price of avoiding Iran’s fate is surrender of their Kurdish-majority provinces. Follow through on the threat if necessary.

    (3) Swap Khuzestan to Iraq in exchange for its Kurdish provinces plus Mosul, Kirkuk and the northern Iraqi oilfields.

    (4) Declare the new nation of Kurdistan consisting of the Kurdish-majority regions formerly parts of Turkey, Iraq and Iran.

    (5) Declare that Gaza and the West Bank are now Israeli territory. Expel their current Arab populations to Syria. The “Palestinians” get a one-nation solution to the “Israeli-Palestinian conflict,” just not the one nation they currently have in mind. Tough.

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