71 thoughts on “The Country’s In The Very Best Of Hands”

1. What I learned validated from last night’s events:

   Dictators with a 30 year history don’t just step aside.

   DC is just one large echo chamber for lefty politicians, bureaucrats, and media.

   Democrats think a change in government by revolution via a rioting mob is synomous to Democracy.

   Democrats think a group of concerned citizens on the National Mall calling for tax cuts are religious violent racists ready to carry out terrorists attacks and should be ignored, but a group called the Muslim Brotherhood talking about building a Caliphat is just a secular heterogeneous organization that has a voice that should be heard and headed by the leader of a country as a sign the leader should resign.

2. We would’ve been better off either pressuring Mubarak all along to liberalize or, if not, to have at least taken a non-interference position during the revolt. By trying to play it for every audience, we’ve made ourselves more central to the revolt than we should have, which may allow groups we don’t like–such as Muslim extremists–to grab power.

   I don’t think the Muslim Brotherhood is the main force behind the revolt, but they may reap the benefits. It’s not unusual for a revolution to be led by one group only to be co-opted by another once the revolution is an accomplished fact.

3. Related, the Muslim Brotherhood propaganda: why Americans should not worry their pretty little heads about intended Egyptian “I Can’t Believe It’s Not Theocracy!” from Abdel Moneim Abou el-Fotouh:

   Because we are an Islamic movement and the vast majority of Egypt is Muslim, some will raise the issue of sharia law. While this is not on anyone’s immediate agenda, it is instructive to note that the concept of governance based on sharia is not a theocracy for Sunnis since we have no centralized clergy in Islam. For us, Islam is a way of life adhered to by one-fifth of the world’s population. Sharia is a means whereby justice is implemented, life is nurtured, the common welfare is provided for, and liberty and property are safeguarded.

   See, it’s not a theocracy if Sunni theological authorities only have life-and-death authority in government through policy edicts and not through formal title or office in government. It’s life under those happy, vacation destinations like Saudi Arabia, Gaza, Pakistan…

4. Mubarek resigns, hands power over to the military, and “pro-democracy” movement leader El Baradei exclaims:

   “This is the greatest day of my life.”

   “The country has been liberated after decades of repression,” he said adding that he expects a “beautiful” transition of power.

   Ah yes, the sight of tanks intermingled with protestors is beautiful… liberating… um, transition.

   In other news, Iran isn’t trying to produce nuclear weapons despite procuring the equipment to do so.

5. Leland, the world’s fifth largest oil exporting nation only needs nukes for peaceful energy purposes, or something, and you know it!

6. “President Obama has mastered a certain rhetorical schtick. It revolves around the communication of a certain emotion of righteousness. You look out a crowd, eyes raised, and turn your head slowly to the the left, then to the right, then to the left again.” He left out the Mussolini chin-tilt! How could you describe Obama’s podium posturing without the chin-tilt?

7. I think that before yesterday Mubarek knew he was toast. The whole world new it.

   However unlike our current President I firmly believe that Mubarek is no fool.

   I think that he stayed that extra day and said what he said to publicly screw the President for his stab in the back.

8. Michael, I really doubt it. See http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/ben-eliezer-mubarak-knows-he-must-step-down-but-wants-an-honorable-exit-1.342802 Mubarak’s actions reflect his personality and governing style, not his interest in the American president.

   And if you’re wondering why Ben Eliezer was talking with Mubarak under such circumstances, look up his bio — http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binyamin_Ben-Eliezer

   —

   Anyway, I find the comments here somewhat incoherent, particularly when compared to the comments on the recent Iranian uprising. I can’t figure out what you think Obama should have done differently with regard to the Egyptian situation.

9. They change there governmnet but will not resolve the underlying issues. See:
   http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-egypts-warning-are-you-listening

   I fear this exact process will be repeated again and again world wide.

   We in the U.S. have been consuming more than we have been producing for a long time, we will not be forever immune from the realities of this disconnect.

   Based on poll data we will not end up with a secular democracy in egypt:

   http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article/562840/201102101920/What-Egyptians-Really-Do-Want.htm

10. I can’t figure out what you think Obama should have done differently with regard to the Egyptian situation.

    He should have had Congress pass an emergency Egyptian Peace And Security Law which directed the US Treasury to pay me 1 million dollars.

    Action is clearly needed, to head off an unspeakable polar-bear killing Egyptian quagmire financial catastrophe, and obviously “green” high-speed investment is the way to go. I stand ready to unselfishly do my part by cashing that government check, and agitating for additional job-growing “stimulus” to my 401(k) portfolio.

11. Paul, in the comments of your second link, this poll was cited:
    http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1874/egypt-protests-democracy-islam-influence-politics-islamic-extremism

    But as you know, without knowing how the questions were asked, and quite a few other factors, you can’t put too much stock in either poll.

    Your first link seems over-the-top: the US and, say, Japan, are doomed, doomed, doomed, because they can’t figure out how to use science and engineering to feed and power themselves, and because they can’t figure out how to make things that people in other countries might want to pay for.

12. I’m just waiting for the next 9/12 type rally when millions of citizens are protesting in the capital of their nation demanding that their government quit destoying their future, while the politicians enrich themselves. Can’t wait for foreign leaders demanding that the reckless regime leader step down “now!” Ah, good times, good times…

13. Good point by an Instapundit reader:

    Reader Jason Muckenthaler writes: “Contrast Obama’s reaction to the military ‘coup’ in Honduras with the coup in Egypt – no wonder our allies are confused.”

14. Bob-1 did you read the same article I did?

    Yes at the end of the article the guy plugs his doom is coming material, but the basic facts in the first half that say:

    Egypt can’t produce enough food to feed its populace.
    Egypt can’t produce enough of exportable value to buy food.

    It seems rather starkly simple equation.

    I’ll also ask the question we run a huge trade deficit, are we that much different? Clearly the U.S. has the domestic agricultural resources to feed our selves, but do we have the domestic resources to maintain present standard of living long term?

15. Paul, could it be that Egypt is about to be a whole lot more productive, due to the unleashing of its human capital? In Tunisia, a month after the revolution they are seeing an upswing in entrepreneurial activity. This blog is not where I expected to find Peak Oil type arguments!

16. Reader Jason Muckenthaler writes: “Contrast Obama’s reaction to the military ‘coup’ in Honduras with the coup in Egypt – no wonder our allies are confused.”

    “Confused?” Hell, after the way Mubarak got thrown under the bus, King Abdullah is probably crapping his pants right…about…now.

17. This blog is not where I expected to find Peak Oil type arguments!

    Heh, I find that a bit surprising. Rand isn’t a big peak oil fan, but that doesn’t mean all of his readers aren’t.

    As to whether Egypt can afford to feed itself or not (even if it has to import food), if it couldn’t, we would have already seen the mass die-offs. My view is that food is pretty cheap right now and people, even in Egypt, have significant value aside from the oil. For example, tourism is a pretty good deal. Egypt also is a good spot for fishing and low skill manufacture, as well as that oil.

18. Titus, what do you think the US should have done in the face of pro-democracy protests in Egypt?

19. I actually have some personal cognitive dissonance going on between my belief that things are better than they have ever been, ie the rational optimist and what I see as the unsustainable entitlement mentality.

    I see a lot of people here in CA that think the world owes them:
    Food Shelter, health care, in general they deserve a nice life. While at the same time they are not individually doing anything to add or create value. They consume at a level way beyond their personal valu creation.

    At the same time we are seeing wider income inequality.
    In today’s environment we just don’t need as much dumb labor as we once did. I just don’t see what is going to drive the income inequality pendulum back the other way.

    This is farther complicated by the rise of the parasitic financial class
    (Think large wall street) that is currently extracting far more from the system then they are adding in value. So what percentage of the systematic income inequality is driven by this and what percentage is driven by the fact that someone who is 3 sigma super capable produces way more value than 3 sigma over average.

    In egypt 70% of the people with Jobs worked for the governemtn.

20. Bob, I’m with Carl — the soundness of his logic is practically Vulcan.

21. Titus, I translate Car’s comment as “I can think of a humorous way to criticize some of Obama’s domestic policies, but I can’t think of anything regarding Egypt.” It is perfectly fine if you think so to;, it was just that your use of the anti-Obama “thrown under the bus” theme led me think you had something to say about middle east.

22. I would of suggested to Obama that he and people in the administration say the same message.

    To his credit, Obama did say something to the effect of we want to be the friends of Egypt regardless of who is in power. But that message was lost in the waffling and contradictory statements from people in the administration.

    Georgia and Poland saw how strong of an ally the USA is under Obama. Columbia probably doesn’t have a very high opinion either. But should anyone be surprised that our friends change every 4-8 years and is any other country really that different? It seems most countries act in their own self interests and sometimes that means not being loyal friends.

    Congratulations to the Egyptian people, now that they have their freedom let’s hope they can keep it.

23. Carl–$1 million? You haven’t been taking lessons from Dr. Evil, have you? I think even the Duchy of Grand Fenwick realized that $1 million was an insult–you need to ask for at least $100 million before they’ll take you seriously. Maybe you meant the $1 million to research how much you’ll actually need?

24. Thanks, TQ, but I am only half Vulcan. My mother was…well, let us as well as assorted KBEs, Nobel laureates and ministers plenipotentiary preserve a modest silence with respect to her chequered past.

    I can’t think of anything regarding Egypt.

    Bonobo Bob, I am reminded of a delightful quote from Sense and Sensibility, which pearl for your edification I cast before thee:

    “She was not a woman of many words; for, unlike people in general, she proportioned them to the number of her ideas.”

    Unlike our President — or his appointed intelligence Keystone Kommanders — when I have nothing sensible to say, I don’t say it.

25. For once, I’m glad the US administration has rendered itself impotent to influence the outcome, kind of like the warm feeling you get knowing the crazy people are in straightjackets and can’t hurt anybody.

26. I liked this commentary (and it has nothing to do with Obama.)

    Bin Laden’s nightmare in Egypt
    http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0211/49333.html

27. I realize Carl just came out and said exactly how he feels, but I’m certain the messaage still won’t take.

28. Bob-1, we’ll see if it turns out to be a “nightmare” or not for bin Laden.

29. when I have nothing sensible to say, I don’t say it

    You and Mr. Ed. Your first comment was the scariest thing I’ve read in a while because when I see Carl Pham says: I’ve ready for enlightenment and wisdom (and often confirmation.) It was funny, but scary as hell.

    This time it’s Egypt. You know it will always be someplace. Obama’s foreign policy seems like treason. Perhaps because it is (didn’t Ann write a book with that title?) What’s confusing is why more people don’t see it.

30. What Obama should have done to better handle Egypt is, he should have stayed in the Illinois state senate and left foreign policy to the grown-ups.

31. McGehee or Ken, what would have you done differently if you were President in response to pro-democracy demonstrations in Egypt?

32. Speaking of getting thrown under the bus, one thiing the US this time was to use the fact that we are allies of the entire Egyptian army not just Mubarak. Maybe over time this alliance instilled the idea that the army should serve the people, maybe not. But when the demonstrations began, the US made it clear that the Egyptian army would indeed be thrown under the bus if they started shooting demonstrators, and would maintain their alliance with the US (read: keep getting aid) if they did not shoot the demonstrators and if they otherwise promoted democratic values. Of course it is still early, but so far the US policy has worked out well for the US, for the Egyptian army, and for the Egyptian people.

33. I actually have some personal cognitive dissonance going on between my belief that things are better than they have ever been, ie the rational optimist and what I see as the unsustainable entitlement mentality.

    I don’t see the conflict. As things get better, people start expecting free lunch. And they don’t get any happier, because human emotion is like an immune system. We’re seeing what happens when we don’t have sufficient germs in the environment, the body’s immune system starts attacking itself. Similarly, I believe that if there aren’t sufficient worries and risks in our lives, we start inventing them. Imaginary worries are harder to deal with than concrete worries. If old means of determining status are eliminated, we’ll come up with new ways to distinguish ourselves over others.

    Partly, it’s a result of our heritage. We evolved in a rough, dirty, dangerous world. If we don’t have elements of that left around, then our evolutionary biology and behaviors will conflict to some degree.

    And partly, it’s just the fact that it remains easier to take from someone else than to work.

34. what would have you done differently

    Spies, lots of spies; and a totally different ideology. I would be working closely with Israel and sharing intel.

    We need a manhatten project to rebuild humint. all around the world. This would also included cleaning out all of our own espionage agencies for loyalties. We can’t continue to act like children in an adult world.

35. Perhaps even find another cross dressing paranoid to run the FBI as well.

36. Carl said, “Action is clearly needed, to head off an unspeakable polar-bear killing Egyptian quagmire financial catastrophe…..”

    Well, I for one will say that our immediate action item should be focused on big wet puppy dog kisses!! Cuz, wellz puppyz make us live so longer with with their luvs and we can like, “Rightz!!!” Soooo, that will like solve all the health care problems right therz and then like everyone will be soo stress free with big wetz puppy dog kizzes and the terrorists will be like WWWeEEEEE!!!!! and we will be like, WWHHooooopeEEEE!!!!!! and like it will be greatz!! Because well, studies have shown that pets really really really like seriously help us and all, okay people…..

37. I guess I should clarify my point in that: Well, the Iranian situation seemed to stem directly from a fraudulent election so that seems pretty clear cut to my mind. But the Egyptian situation seems to have spontaneously spawn from the Tunisian situation which seemed to have had a coherent spark (oddly the Tunisian uprising seems to be not getting the same attention). The Egyptian situation seems to have been catalyzed into a larger movement that, as it continues, has perpetually consumed ever more grievances into it narrative as it has trudged along. It is this formation of a narrative behind this story that I think is starting to get a lot of peoples BS detectors in the upswing. If this is truly a 1776 moment than our administration should be focused on the AMERICAN principles of what a reformation should look like. We should be putting our ideals out into the public atmosphere and attempt to make them relate to what a revolt can really lead to when people throw off the yolks of oppression and really seek the penultimate pursuit of LIFE, LIBERTY, AND THE PURSUIT OF HAPPINESS!!

38. A decent human being of a President would have spoken publicly about the abuses under the Mubarak regime, and the abuses that the Muslim Brotherhood would bring if it were to rise to power.

    Such a Prez would speak of the demands of the common Egyptian citizens. Unfortunately, we don’t have a President who actually listens to what average folks have to say. Ask the Tea Partiers.

    I’m afraid that the protesters will be completely left out of the power restructuring.

39. oddly the Tunisian uprising seems to be not getting the same attention

    Tunisia doesn’t have kewl attractions like the Pyramids™. If it weren’t for the fact that some scenes for the Star Wars movies were shot there, we wouldn’t even have heard of the place.

40. What we need is for Ezra Klein to write an article about how the Egyptian revolt lead to the discovery of unicorns. A few weeks later, he can tell us how Mubarek was behind a scheme to promote Global Warming. Not the theory, but actually making the globe warmer.

    Then we can hear how Obama helped bring unicorns back and literally took action to stop the seas from rising. Oh, I bet people will like that…

41. McGehee […], what would have you done differently if you were President in response to pro-democracy demonstrations in Egypt?

    Have I ever hinted at a desire to be President, asshole? No. Want to know why?

    Because unlike your beloved simpleton-in-chief I know I’m not up to the job.

    Now piss off you sanctimonious son of a bitch.

42. Alan, the problem is that a decent president also has to weigh the needs of the war on terrorism, and Mubarak was an effective partner in that war.

    McGehee, regarding all this talk about the administration being children who are not up to the job: the US was really in a bind this week, as we needed to weigh our short-term security needs against our democratic values. Promoting democratic principles around the world contributes to our long-term security (probably, usually) and regardless, it is the right thing to do, but the US President has an obligation to defend the US in the short-term as well.

    The USA’s answer, as I’ve mentioned above, was to reach out to the Egyptian military, which seems to have solved the conundrum for now — Egypt is currently controlled by our partners in the war on terror who upheld our principles by, at the very least, not shooting peaceful demonstrators and may actually promote democracy. I think the USA did as well as it could this week, under the circumstances. But since there is an under current of criticism on this blog, I was inviting you to articulate what alternative strategy the USA could have pursued. Your response makes me think you have no idea, which is fine, but if so, why criticize?

43. Your response makes me think you have no idea, which is fine, but if so, why criticize?

    LOL

44. Bob, I’ll answer the “done differently” question. I wouldn’t have changed my position more often that alternating current and I would not let others under my control say really stupid things.

45. I was inviting you to articulate what alternative strategy the USA could have pursued. Your response makes me think you have no idea, which is fine, but if so, why criticize?

    I’m not sure that if I see someone hitting himself on the head with a hammer there’s anything wrong with my saying stop hitting yourself on the head with a hammer. If he responds “So how else do I drown out the evil voices that are telling me to swallow my own feet?” and I don’t have a response that satisfies him, I’m still not sure there’s anything wrong with my offering criticism without an alternative plan.

    This seeming bit of “logic” is offered frequently by the modern left: the economy is suffering — something has to be done! You don’t like raising taxes and shovel-ready projects? What ELSE do you suggest?

    But the philosophy is ancient: The patient is suffering — something must be done! You don’t like bleeding him and trepanning his skull to let the demons out? What ELSE do you suggest?

    I think sensible men need to remember that, with complex systems, random action is always more likely to make things worse than better, the same way throwing tools into a running malfunctioning engine is always more likely to destroy it than accidentally fix it. If you don’t know what you’re doing, then sit down and shut up is very sound advice.

    In the context of Egypt, it’s unclear to me why the United States, as a nation, should have anything to say at all. American citizens, individually, may offer any opinion they please, and no doubt there will be many different kinds. We may, as individuals, hope or even agitate for one outcome or another. Certainly the nation ought to ask, when the dust settles, that Egypt continue to make good on its promises, as a nation. Or at the least we can reserve the right to re-evaluate our commitments if the Egyptian people want to re-evaluate theirs.

    But I don’t see why the United States as a nation, in particular its President in his official speeches, should say anything at all with respect to how the Egyptian people want to re-organize their government. I fear this is just one more occasion on which Obama feels his personal wisdom is just too wonderfully valuable to deny the rest of us unwashed peasants the opportunity of hearing it. The man talks too much.

46. I think the USA did as well as it could this week, under the circumstances.

    Given that the official in charge of providing intelligence to the Commander in Chief believes the Muslim Brotherhood is secular and non-violent, I’m curious what “circumstances” you’re referring to. Unanticipated senior moments by key individuals?

    Something else maybe?

47. Carl, consider one of the most humblest of presidents in recent times, George H. W. Bush. Substitute his names for Obama’s in your comment, and substitute “Hungary”, “Poland”, “East Germany”, etc, etc, for “Egypt” in your comment, re-read it, and then look at official statements by President Bush in 1989. Or, for that matter, look at his comments on China in 1989, both before and after the massacre. As the world changed in complex and unpredictable ways, President Bush frequently weighed in with the official position of the United States government. Bush took sides, and yet his comments reflected the way he needed to weigh the security benefits of stability to the United States against aspirations of people around the world to be free.

    I think you are questioning the usual role the United States and the US President has played in the world in general after WWII. That’s a big conversation. You might also question the the US plays in the middle east, and in particular, with one of the largest recipients of foreign aid over the last 30 years. That’s also a big conversation. But regarding this particular president, I think Obama acted almost identically to the way Bush-41 and other presidents have acted in similar situations.

48. Bill, I don’t think you are entirely wrong, but the situation kept changing, and the administration’s changing positions reflected those situational changes. Supporting Mubarak and urging gradual reform made sense before the police started shooting people on TV, and the situation changed again when Mubarak showed that he wasn’t going to give more than an inch in the face of legitimate demands of a basically illegitimate regime (which we had given enormous amounts of support to for good but self-serving reasons.)

    Also, what position would you have taken? Leland, to his credit, took a position: he seems to think that we should have supported the rule of law, and encouraged the continuation of Mubarak’s rule until it ended in September. I think taking this position would have led to bloodshed, and it would have hurt our chances of having a good relationship with Egypt in the future.

    Curt, I’m referring to the circumstances of having a US ally in conflict with people who were expressing our values.

    There is a whole debate to be had about the nature of the different factions of the Muslim Brotherhood, and why peaceful largely secular Egyptians might support some of those factions for now. I think you want to suggest that things are simple: “Muslim Brotherhood = violent Islamists who killed Sadat” but things aren’t that simple. I agree that Clapper should have been more careful in how he phrased things, but I think the White House walked back his comments for political reasons. It would be interesting to hear Clapper give a lecture on our unclassified knowledge about the Muslim Brotherhood – we both might learn something.

49. Alan, the problem is that a decent president also has to weigh the needs of the war on terrorism, and Mubarak was an effective partner in that war.

    Sometimes scoundrels are effective allies. Case in point: the House of Saud, re the Cold War. That comes with a price: America loses favor in the eyes of the scoundrel’s subjects. Especially if the scoundrel rules over a society with limited (and America-hostile) press.

    A lot of folks falsely equate military alliance with the scoundrel with approval of the scoundrel’s overall policies.

    So how do we gain the cooperation of scoundrels without alienating their subjects? We may have to deal with the subjects some day, since we can’t take for granted that the scoundrel will always be in power.

    How do we influence transitional governments? Repeating myself, the best the government can do is a) condemn the most dangerous claimants to the throne, and b) talk up democratic principles directly relevant to the peoples’ chief concerns.

    The biggest player in gaining goodwill with a foreign power’s private sector is our private sector. Trade is a big help. The Internet opens doors for cultural exchange. I think something else that would be helpful would be an international grassroots organization that promotes certain basic principles of representative government – a sort of Tea Party/Radio Free Europe hybrid. People who have lived in a democratic culture can serve as inspiration and encouragement for those who haven’t.

    One of the best elements of American culture: most of us like celebrating other peoples’ freedom. That builds good foreign relations. And the grassroots are especially needed for that when that trait isn’t expressed by our Executive Branch.

50. Bob, you have a curious tendency to argue by appeal to supposed figures of admiration — as if saying George Bush kicked his dog would have a millimeter’s influence on my opinion of the ethics of kicking dogs.

    Let me make something easier for you in the future: every man or woman I admire, from my pop on downwards, has done some first-class stupid and wrong things. Hence I always proceed from evaluating actions to evaluating people. People who do many good things are good people.

    But what I never do is proceed in reverse, from evaluating people to evaluating actions. It is never the case that I’ll say Well someone I admire did foo, so it must be that foo is a good thing to do. So if that line of argument occurs to you in the future, you can immediately abandon it as bootless.

    You’re also being unreasonably lazy in your argument here: if you feel that something Bush Sr. said about the situation in Europe in the 90s compares to what Obama said about Egypt today — well, what is it? You’re implying there’s a comparison that would confound me, but you decline to point to it.

    I might even say you appear to be criticizing my lack of historical perspective without offering an alternative.

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