Is it on the verge of collapse?
Something profound has changed. Germans have begun to sense that the preservation of their own democracy and rule of law is in conflict with demands from Europe. They must choose one or the other.
Yet Europe and the world are so used to German self-abnegation for the EU Project – so used to the teleological destiny of ever-closer Union – that they cannot seem to grasp the fact. It reminds me of 1989 and the establishment failure to understand the Soviet game was up.
Go long on the Deutschemark.
Brain. Disconnect. I couldn’t find anything about Herman Cain in the article!
Here is the opposite argument:
http://nationalinterest.org/blog/jacob-heilbrunn/germany-rescuing-greece-europe-5961
Both stories are probably right. Germany like most countries has parties who support different things and have different agenda. The problem with Heilbrunn’s view (from Bob-1’s link) is that it is hard to force a country to be responsible when they don’t want to be. I don’t see the political will in Greece and several other countries to fundamentally change the flaws in their society that led to the current near defaults. He does acknowledge that there might end up being a two tiered system (he groups based on “political integration”, but those candidates are about the same as the “economically strong”). The two tiered system is one outcome from a collapse of the EU.
They just need to hold it together for another month. I’m going to Spain in a couple of weeks and I don’t want my vacation to be inconvenienced by a currency failure, bank runs, riots in the streets, central bankers being hung by their ankles from otherwise picturesque lampposts, etc.
[Note to self: be sure to spend every last Euro before flying home…they might not be useful on a future trip.]