I’m at the ISPCS in New Mexico, and He’s about to speak. Keep an eye on this post for updates, if it scrolls down.

“Some of what I say might be kind of controversial.”

Space playbook is about to really change. “Game is ‘Solar System Monopoly.'” [I’m pretty sure that he’s going to talk about China.]

America has become weaker not stronger versus other countries. We have to ask where is this planet’s space future going? How different is America today from 1969, politically, educationally, motivationally, industrially? If America is weaker than then, how close is it to the tipping point of being relegated to second-class position?

What are serious problems that are probably permanent?

Welfare and entitlements, government unions, damaging growth in cost of national debt, terrible results from educational system, growing culture of socialism, and pathetic lack of truth and integrity in government.

In sixties, America had a real vision, with a motivation behind it — fear. We were afraid of the Russian space program — shocked that they were launching much bigger payload than us. Created a time of creativity, and national pride.

Here’s really bad news — China has a grand national vision of being number one in the world measured in every way possible with possible exception of freedom, and now more free than they’ve ever been.

Has been thinking about a Chinese space program with a core of a lunar base, sometime in 2020 or 2021. Will be more than flags and footprints. China already committed to go to the moon, so why not take next step of ownership? Believes they will make ownership claims wherever they land and will eventually claim the whole body.

Needed to execute plan: motivation, means, what or who will prevent (OST won’t), and when?

What is valuable about moon? Talking about He3, imagine having a monopoly. Water ice for human consumption and rocket fuel. Has propulsion on Bigelow spacecraft that runs on water. Sell leases and licensing rights for research. Major things that got his attention was effects on national pride and confidence. Americans still basking in glow forty years on, but we don’t own a single square foot of it. Other thing is global psychological impact of making us number two. Nothing else China could do in the next fifteen years would be more beneficial to China in elevating them.

Notes that we are currently reactivating rare-earth plants due to Chinese domination of that market. China has three trillion in cash and no debt, whereas we are fourteen trillion in debt. Biggest importer and exporter and number two economy on the planet (recently exceeded Japan). They have the bucks, can buy the Buck Rogers. Also determined to be more innovative, while not being averse to stealing IP. Different interpretation of patent rights.

China has built a lunar mapper, and its first stealth fighter/bomber. Has satellites that can inspect each other at 200 yards. Planning a lunar sample return for 2017.

Needs ability to stay focused, and they have demonstrated such an ability with five-year plans. If one wants to make a claim, more thoroughly, then they would send robotic survey teams and mark.

If you’re China and have already bought lots of land in Brazil and Africa, you embedding yourself in winning friends and influencing people, so OST will be dead letter in the General Assembly. Or they could just withdraw from the treaty.

They are playing by the rules, and there won’t be much we can do about it.

Could the US and a consortium of other countries? “Too little too late.” Too far below the radar, and something we will only recognize far too late in the process. Thinks it will happen somewhere around 2022-2026, based on connecting dots of what China is doing. Mars will be next in the later 2020s. Hopefully this will produce the necessary fear factor to motivate the Americans. May be too late for moon, but Mars could still be available.

But how would US pay for such a competition, and given NASA’s poor performance, who would be in charge? No answer to last, but what if US government could reduce defense spending ten percent, and devoted to a Mars program? Sixty billion a year. Military trends are to reduce loss of life and insane cost of wars. Bad taste of Iraq/Afghanistan will linger for ten-fifteen years after they’re over.

Mars quest for ownership program will be much less costly in life than wars, and could absorb companies currently in arms business. Science and technology would take a quantum jump, and create an important economic dynamic. When we left the moon leaving only footprints, no possibility of commerce. Owning Mars would create new vitality and new industries, worth of respect from that generation known as “the Greatest Generation.”

Question: if Chinese supremacy a concern, why not cooperate? Answer: If they would go for it that would be good.

Question: Can cost of space operations make resources competitive for earthly markets?
Answer: Depends on how we do things, but wealth off planet isn’t in trillions, it’s in quadrillions.

Moon has great potential for resources, what is potential for Mars? Gained in the process, not necessarily the planet itself — forced to develop new technologies to provide spinoff.

Has downsized company to reflect slower schedule than originally anticipated for transportation providers. Not as big a rush.