Can anything be salved from it, scientifically? Some thoughts from one of the scientists. If we were really a spacefaring nation, we’d have someone on their way to it right now, or soon, to retrieve or fix it.
[Update a while later]
The latest from Emily Lakdawalla. As she says, unless there’s a change in the situation, not much more to report until it comes down, either on its own or with assistance from the ground. I also agree with her that it’s strange that anyone thinks they can predict an entry date at this point.
[Update a few minutes later]
Alan Boyle: “NASA’s Nicholas Johnson tells me @PhobosGrunt isn’t projected to re-enter till next month; too early to be more specific right now.”
That’s right.
Some sort of space tug would be nice right now.
Or another copy of phobos-grunt in the construction pipeline. which is ready to make the changes that would keep the next probe from falling prey to those faults.
Sad. It was an interesting mission, though, let’s be honest — the chances of it meeting all its objectives was incredibly slim.
I’m not so sure about having someone one the way to fixing it… that hypergolic fuel can be nasty stuff, especially when we don’t know the conditions. I vaguely remember a Russian upper stage blowing up about a month post-launch of a satellite (one of the Arabsats, I think) that didn’t make proper orbit. So, I think fixing Phobos-Grunt it would be a bit risky for a manned mission. A robotic one, on the other hand….
However, I do agree that a true spacefaring nation would have the capacity. It’s been done, via Shuttle, for Hubble, plus recovering the two failed communications satellites from an early Shuttle mission.
I wish there could have been a follow-on of the shuttle; a redesigned orbiter, plus other changes to reduce costs. I think that would have been the way to go, *IF* it could have been a cost-effective system. I think we’re about 6 years too late for that to be possible, if it ever was.
Sad, really, that almost 30 years ago, our space capabilities were so superior to what we have today. 🙁
I feel badly for the team who designed this probe. They likely put their hearts and souls into it. It was a rare opportunity for them in light of the financial woes extant there. I hope they can make it work, although it looks doubtful.
I’m hoping someone can help me understand what’s going on here, regarding any possibility of salvaging the mission. I admittedly am rather uninformed on the issue, but from my uninformed perspective, I can’t see any way to save the mission even if they regain total control right now.
The problem I see is delta-v. They have a finite amount, barely enough to accomplish the original mission. So, any significant increase in required Delta-v (beyond anyreserve margin) would, perforce, doom the mission, right?
Then, with the orbital plane precessing at around 6 degrees per day, aren’t they already out of alignment too much to do the burns now?
If they did the first burn now, then waited in the intermediate orbit until it precessed to 180 degrees (about a month) wouldn’t that put them past the planetary alignment window, which I heard closes Nov 25th?
Any idea just how much Delta-v reserve they had beyond the initial requirements?
I’m just trying to figure out how there’s any possibility that the mission could be saved at this point, even if full function is restored immediately. If they are worried about the delta-v needed to overcome the loss of apogee due to the current orbital decay, they can’t have much delta-v margin, can they?
I know there has to be a glaring flaw in my reasoning, otherwise lots of people would have already declared the mission dead.
Carrying anything from the Planetary Society was their first mistake. At the risk of sounding superstitious (which I haven’t been ever since my astrologer told me it would bring bad luck), I consider the Planetary Society a major jinx.