9 thoughts on “A New Space Billionaire”

  1. Um very clearly, Musk has not made a fortune in space. The zip thing, and PayPal are his fortune, Tesla could be cashed now too. SolarCity looks like a solid holding too but SpaceX is far from being considered as part of anyone’s net worth still. If they actually start regular operations, then maybe

    1. I don’t know whether or not it’s included in the estimate, but one can make a valuation of the company based on existing contracts and launch backlog.

      1. FTA: Together, Musk’s stakes in SolarCity and SpaceX are worth $1 billion.

        So it’s included – no breakdowns though. SC is planning an IPO of $1.5B and he owns a fourth.

        Not sure the “math” really works out there, but considering he has sunk $100M in SpaceX himself, he has not really made a large fortune on it – at least not yet.

        For the launch backlog valuation – it would all have to be multiplied by the reliability record, which is virtually nonexistent right now. Pretty much the only thing that counts towards that is the launch of RazakSAT, paying payload, on orbit.

        1. For the launch backlog valuation – it would all have to be multiplied by the reliability record, which is virtually nonexistent right now.

          There are GAAP ways to discount for that, and presumably they did.

          1. Rand,

            Actually if you read the article carefully it appears the value they used for SpaceX ($937.5 million) is based on valuing Elon Musk’s share ($625 million) priced on what other investors bought in for. This is of course a very conservative estimate of its value but its also the only supportable one since there is of course no public information for estimating SpaceX profits from its launch contracts. A careful reading of the article shows most of his valuation of $2 billion are from his shares in Telsa ($1 billion) and Solar City ($375 million).

    2. Reader,

      Actually he could probably sell SpaceX as it stands now to one of the major aerospace firms. Northup-Gruman would be a clear choice since they have no launch business. Or he could sell it to a venture capital group. Both would be practical paths to cashing out of it without doing an IPO.

  2. I raise a glass of port (ok, Mtn Dew) in toast to Elon.

    “Illegitimi non-carborundum!”(Don’t let the bastards grind you down.)

  3. I do find these estimates interesting.. I wonder how much cash you have to have to beat the most cash-flush people in the world. Ownership in a company is great, ownership you can sell is even better, cash under your mattress is another thing all together.

    1. Ownership in a company that is delivering services or selling products is a notch above just having ownership in a company.
      I’m not sure i’d want a 99% ownership in Moller International for any price.

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