Should NASA Be Doing More Asteroids?

This article at Slate says so, but there are some unfounded assumptions in it:

What should be NASA’s most important task — keeping the Earth, and America, safe from asteroid and comet impact — is barely mentioned in its latest strategic plan, released earlier this week. Planning for a mission to deflect a potential cataclysm is left to private organizations like the B612 Foundation, in which a number of engineers and scientists with years of experience with NASA are involved. It’s even headed by former astronaut Ed Lu. But this is too important a task to be left to philanthropists and retirees like the B612 crowd. However laudable their efforts, they lack the resources and capability that the government has. Keeping its citizens safe is the foundational responsibility of government. And in this respect, NASA has been heedless of its responsibilities.

This is just another example of “Space = NASA” thinking. In fact, the reason that there is nothing in NASA’s strategic plan about this is that it has no charter about planetary protection, and it is not currently its “responsibility.” If you think otherwise, go look at the Space Act, and tell me where it is.

In fact, it’s not at all clear that NASA is the right place for this to happen, particularly given all its chronic organizational dysfunction. I would submit that there is currently no government agency chartered to protect the planet. I think I’m going to write up an op-ed or two declaring that it’s time to fundamentally reorganize the federal space establishment, including the formation of the Space Guard.

[Update a while later]

To elaborate, let’s go into the objectives of the agency (just typing out loud here):

(1) The expansion of human knowledge of the Earth and of phenomena in the atmosphere and space.

(2) The improvement of the usefulness, performance, speed, safety, and efficiency of aeronautical and space vehicles.

(3) The development and operation of vehicles capable of carrying instruments, equipment, supplies, and living organisms through space.

(4) The establishment of long-range studies of the potential benefits to be gained from, the opportunities for, and the problems involved in the utilization of aeronautical and space activities for peaceful and scientific purposes.

(5) The preservation of the role of the United States as a leader in aeronautical and space science and technology and in the application thereof to the conduct of peaceful activities within and outside the atmosphere.

(6) The making available to agencies directly concerned with national defense of discoveries that have military value or significance, and the furnishing by such agencies, to the civilian agency established to direct and control nonmilitary aeronautical and space activities, of information as to discoveries which have value or significance to that agency.

(7) Cooperation by the United States with other nations and groups of nations in work done pursuant to this chapter and in the peaceful application of the results thereof.

(8) The most effective utilization of the scientific and engineering resources of the United States, with close cooperation among all interested agencies of the United States in order to avoid unnecessary duplication of effort, facilities, and equipment.

(9) The preservation of the United States preeminent position in aeronautics and space through research and technology development related to associated manufacturing processes.

Now (1) could clearly include looking for rogue asteroids.

(2) and (3) aren’t relevant.

(4) could potentially encompass looking into things like gravity tractors and other means of diversion, if you want to consider not being slammed by a space rock a “potential benefit,” but it doesn’t say that the agency would actually execute such plans.

(5) is too vague to be useful for this (as it always is).

(6) could include telling the DoD about asteroid diversion techniques, assuming that you consider diverting an asteroid a national defense activity, rather than simply managing nature (e.g., flood control or forest management to prevent major fires).

(7) could apply, but it would just be an excuse to get together with other countries to do whatever NASA wanted, not because it’s intrinsically in its wheelhouse.

(8) doesn’t really seem applicable, nor does (9) unless you consider learning how to herd asteroids the development of a new manufacturing process.

Really, folks, it wasn’t what Congress had in mind when they created the agency, and nothing they’ve done to amend it since has substantially changed that. If we’re serious about asteroids, we need to set up an agency that will be focused on that, and not diverted by a bunch of other politically driven things.

One other point. Ed Wright notes in comments: “The National Academy of Sciences bashed the idea of a manned asteroid mission in its recent report on NASA priorities. They see asteroids solely as objects of scientific study and believe unmanned missions are good enough for that.”

The other unfounded and unexamined assumption is that we too strongly correlate space with science. This is probably one of the biggest policy myths that has been holding us back for decades, because the whole idea of a civil space agency developed out of the International Geophysical Year in 1958, and since then, everyone has assumed that NASA’s primary job is to do science. It’s been almost impossible to break out of that mindset and think in terms of space development and settlement. I’m not sure that we’ll ever be able to sever the connection, so it would be better to establish new national goals for space, one of which would be planetary protection, but another would be to enable space commerce including transportation (e.g. search and rescue, constabulary duties, etc.), and set up a new agency (Space Guard) that won’t be distracted by “science” and about whom the National Academy will have nothing to say, to execute them.

The B612 Foundation

I just got a press release on the Russian bolide explosion:

The B612 Foundation believes we should find threatening asteroids before they find us. Today’s meteor explosion over Chelyabinsk is a wake-up call that the Earth orbits the Sun in a shooting gallery of asteroids, and that these asteroids sometimes hit the Earth. Later today, a separate and larger asteroid, 2012 DA14, narrowly missed the Earth passing beneath the orbits of our communications satellites. We have the technology to deflect asteroids, but we cannot do anything about the objects we don’t know exist. To date, less than 1% of asteroids larger than the one that leveled Tunguska in 1908 have been tracked. The B612 Foundation Sentinel Space Telescope, to be launched in 2018, will provide a comprehensive map of the locations and trajectories of threatening asteroids and will give humanity the decades of warning needed to prevent asteroid impacts with existing technology. By the end of its planned lifetime, Sentinel will have discovered well over 90% of the asteroids that could destroy entire regions of Earth on impact (those larger than 350ft in diameter) and more than 50% of the currently unknown DA14-like near-Earth asteroids.

The B612 Foundation has undertaken this Sentinel project as a non-governmental initiative, somewhat akin to a growing number of private space ventures originated in the past few years. The oundation, however, is not undertaking this project for profit; we are a non-profit corporation. Our motivation is strictly to ensure the survival of life on Earth – all of it. And while NASA is cooperating with us by providing certain communication and analytic services, we are excited, as a private venture, to welcome the participation of *all* the crew of Spaceship Earth in this great endeavor.

Does the crew of Spaceship Earth raise our awareness and accept responsibility for our voyage into the future? Or do we sit back as passengers, comfortably assuming that there must be a captain and crew doing this job on our behalf?

The B612 Sentinel mission is testament to our belief that we, together, are responsible for the future of life on our small planet; we invite you to join us (www.b612foundation.org and on twitter @b612foundation) in addressing this cosmic challenge.

It’s certainly a good opportunity to raise awareness of the issue. This was the most devastating impact on record, in terms of human injuries.

Chelyabinsk: What Just Happened?

My thoughts over at PJMedia.

[Update a few minutes later]

Deep Space Industries has already jumped on the PR opportunity:

McLEAN, VA – February 15 – Today’s impact in Russia and the near miss by
asteroid 2012 DA14 should shock the world into creating a sentry line of
spacecraft circling the Earth to intercept and evaluate incoming threats, Deep
Space Industries proposed.

“The hundreds of people injured in northern Russia show it’s time to take action
and no longer be passive about these threats,” said Rick Tumlinson, chairman of
Deep Space Industries.

Deep Space Industries proposes establishing several sentry lines encircling
Earth with small spacecraft able to dart after intruders to get close-in photos
and data as they pass. Over time additional spacecraft able to grab samples for
analysis on Earth would join the sentry lines.

Not all asteroids are the same, and to be ready to deflect one that’s on a
dangerous trajectory the world needs to know more about their structure and
composition. Many may be solid but all photos so far have shown gravel and rock
piles. A defense plan assuming the wrong type could make matters worse.

“Placing ten of our small FireFly spacecraft into position to intercept close
encounters would take four years and less than $100 million,” said David Gump,
CEO of Deep Space Industries. “This will help the world develop the
understanding needed to block later threats.”

There are estimated to be more than 10,000 near Earth asteroids that could
destroy a major city and a hundred that would end civilization. Near Earth
asteroids are confirmed at a rate of more than 900 per year, but as yet little
is known about their composition and structure.

“Observations by space telescopes like the Sentinel planned by the B612
Foundation and the smaller units offered by Planetary Resources should be
supported,” Tumlinson said. “Astronomical observations are a good first step but
at Deep Space we believe we need get up close and personal. Then when these
objects are identified, we can launch one or more FireFlies to intercept them,
and give us close-up images so that we understand what we are dealing with.”

Deep Space Industries is preparing the FireFly series to begin prospecting in
2015 for asteroids that are very small, five to seven meters in diameter. The
same FireFly prospecting design would be used in the sentry line of asteroid
interceptors.

Then in 2020, Deep Space will bring one of these tiny rocks back to a parking
orbit near Earth to be harvested for its water, rocket fuel, and metals for
in-space customers such as communications satellites that have run out of gas.
The larger harvesting spacecraft might be the basis for interceptors that could
nudge larger threats into trajectories that miss Earth.

In the coming months Deep Space Industries will be offering plans to develop a
coordinated low-cost commercial solution to setting up humanity’s first line of
defense against asteroid threats.

“While our primary mission is the harvesting of asteroid resources, we believe
that virtually the same effort and technology can be applied to removing this
threat to our precious planet,” Tumlinson said.

I suspect Planetary Resources won’t be far behind.

Have We Finally Gotten Congress’s Attention?

Lamar Smith:

“Fifty years ago, we would have had no way of seeing an asteroid like this coming. Now, thanks to the discoveries NASA has made in its short history, we have known about 2012 DA14 for about a year. As the world leader in space exploration, America has made great progress for mankind,” Smith continued. “But our work is not done. We should continue to study, research, and explore space to better understand our universe and better protect our planet.”

The chairman announced a hearing in the coming weeks to examine ways to better identify and address asteroids that pose a potential threat to Earth.

I hope they have Ed Lu testify.

[Update a while later]

Jeff Foust has more.

Commercial Crew

Jeff Foust is reporting that the sequestration will bring it to a halt. And then there’s this:

NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) rocket and Orion crew exploration vehicle would not be directly affected by the cuts.

Insanity.

[Update a couple minutes later]

A commenter says it may not be as bad as it appears (or at least, it’s not much worse than the status quo, given that Congress refuses to fund it adequately).

It always hurts my head to try to get it wrapped around the entrails of budget issues, but I’ll dig into it further (and be interested to see what Major Tom has to say).