The most openly and transparently thin-skinned administration in history.
If only Stalin knew.
Monthly Archives: February 2013
CBM Versus NDS
This is a post for manned space geeks, arising from questions in comments earlier. As I note there:
We’re going to be stuck with both CBM and NDS for a long time. The latter is much more flexible, (e.g., allowing docking to an unmanned facility), but the former will stick around for its ability to transfer large objects.
Note that Dragon can’t serve as a lifeboat currently, because it has to have someone in the station, with power, to unberth from the CBM, even though it’s functionally capable of doing so with a rudimentary life support system. One of the key changes for commercial crew will be adoption of the NDS. One more reason that we should be accelerating that capability, because a Dragon lifeboat would allow the addition of another crew member, doubling or maybe even quadrupling the science that could be performed at the station.
I discuss this issue in the book:
To get back to the bizarre (at least that’s how it would appear to a Martian) behavior with respect to ISS, what is it worth? Of what value is it to have people aboard? We have spent about a hundred billion dollars on it over almost three decades. We are continuing to spend two or three billion a year on it, depending on how one keeps the books. For that, if the purpose is research, we are getting about one person-year of such (simply maintaining the facility takes a sufficient amount of available crew time that on average, only one person is doing actual research at any given time). That would imply that we think that a person-year of orbital research is worth two or three gigabucks.
What is the constraint on crew size? For now, not volume, though the life support system may be near its limits (the US segment can supposedly support four, and the Russian segment three) – I don’t know how many ultimately it could handle, but we know that there is currently not a larger crew because of NASA’s lifeboat requirement, and there has to be a Soyuz (which can return three) for each three people on the station. If what they were doing was really important, they’d do what they do at Scott-Amundsen, and live without. After all, as suggested earlier, just adding two researchers would immediately triple the productivity of the facility. In fact, because the ISS has recently been unable to average more than twenty-seven hours per week1, adding one person for a forty-hour week would increase it by two and a half times, and adding a second would increase it by a factor of four. If what we’re getting from the ISS in terms of research is really worth three billion a year, then quadrupling it would be, at least in theory, a huge value.
That’s not to say that they couldn’t be continuing to improve the safety, and develop a larger life boat eventually (the Dragon is probably very close to being able to serve as one now, since it doesn’t need a launch abort system for that role – only a new mating adaptor that allows it to dock to or depart from an unmanned or unpowered station), but their unwillingness to risk crew now is indicative of how unimportant whatever science being done on the station really is.
I should note that last week, the station did manage a record seventy-one hours, but I don’t think they’ll be able to keep that up with current crew size.
Where No Man (or Woman) Has Gone Before
My thoughts on Dennis Tito’s press conference yesterday, over at PJMedia.
[Update a while later]
Hmmmm…the post seems to have disappeared. I’ll bug them to find out what happened.
[Update a few minutes later]
I’ve sent an email to find out what happened, but meanwhile, here‘s Marcia Smith’s (semi-skeptical) report.
[Update a while later]
OK, it seems to be back up now.
More On Inspiration Mars
Clark Lindsey has a link roundup.
A Chinese/European Space Station?
This is interesting.
APAS is a pretty obsolete system, but it would be nice to have a docking standard for everyone, for safety and rescue reasons, and flexibility. I’m sure that Frank Wolf would have a hissy fit, though, if we were to share the NDS with the Chinese. The question is, would the station share an orbit with the ISS, or be in a different one? One of my dreams is seeing an actual community and infrastructure develop in one place, which again, would promote safety, and eliminate the idiotic (in my opinion, as I describe in my book) requirement for a “lifeboat” to evacuate everyone in the ISS all the way back to earth.
The CRU Leaker
Is it time for him or her to step forward?
I have mixed feelings. As some commenters note, the retribution from the climate liars could be harsh, and it’s useful to have the mole in place. It would be delicious, though, if it was Briffa, from a combination of an attack of conscience and the attacks by Mann.
America’s “Justice” System
Thoughts from Conrad Black:
American prosecutors win 99.5 percent of their cases, a much higher percentage than those in other civilized countries; that 97 percent of them are won without trial, because of the plea-bargain system in which inculpatory evidence is extorted from witnesses in exchange for immunity from prosecution, including for perjury; that the U.S. has six to twelve times as many incarcerated people per capita as do Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, or the United Kingdom, comparably prosperous democracies; that the U.S. has 5 percent of the world’s population, 25 percent of its incarcerated people, and half of its academically qualified lawyers, who take about 10 percent of U.S. GDP; that prosecutors enjoy very uneven advantages in procedure and an absolute immunity for misconduct; that they routinely seize targets’ money on false affidavits alleging ill-gotten gains so they cannot defend themselves by paying rapacious American lawyers, most of whom in criminal-defense matters are just a fig leaf to provide a pretense of a genuine day in court before blind justice; that the Fifth, Sixth, and Eighth Amendment rights that are the basis of the American claim to being a society of laws don’t really exist in practice; and that far too many judges are ex-prosecutors who have not entirely shed the almost universal prosecutorial will to crucify.
But other than that, it’s great.
All The President’s Thugs
Instapundit has a big roundup of links to the Bob Woodward story.
You know, the last time a paranoid socialist president with an enemies list crossed swords with Woodward, it didn’t end well for him. And the media’s hackery/flackery in the service of The One has never been more fully on display.
[Update a while later]
I do have to say that I find Woodward’s naivety in thinking that the president wouldn’t approve of this a little disquieting.
[Update a few minutes later]
That noted right winger Ron Fournier got similar treatment. At some point, the floodgates might open, at least for those few reporters who still imagine themselves to have any integrity whatsoever. I’ll be there are a lot of stories like this out there. And I have to say, I’m not really surprised that it’s Gene Sperling. He always strikes me as a little weasel whenever I see him spinning.
[Update a while later]
A dissenting view from Kevin Hassett: Gene Sperling is no thug.
I wonder who Fournier’s interactions were with? Certainly Plouffe hasn’t covered himself in glory here.
[Update a while later]
Fournier expands on his previous account. It’s still ambiguous, at least to me, whether he’s saying that this is the same WH official who “threatened” Woodward. But I just find this kind of thing mind blowing:
Reporting by Woodward and Carl Bernstein uncovered Watergate misdeeds and led to the resignation of President Nixon. My tweet was not intended to compare Nixon to Obama (there is no reason to doubt Obama’s integrity — period) but rather to compare the attack to the press strategies of all the presidents’ men.
…This can’t be what Obama wants. He must not know how thin-skinned and close-minded his staff can be to criticism. “I have the greatest respect and admiration for what you do,” Obama told reporters a year ago. “I know sometimes you like to give me a hard time, and I certainly like to return the favor, but I never forget that our country depends on you.”
Emphasis mine.
“…no reason to doubt Obama’s integrity”? Really? No reason at all?
“This can’t be what Obama wants”? Really?
The fish rots from the head down, Ron.
[Update a while later]
Heh: “Washington is the only place on earth where Gene Sperling and Rahm Emanuel can successfully bully people.”
Inspiration Mars
The press conference starts in about half an hour. I see though, that they have more info at the web site:
An inflatable habitat module will be deployed after launch and detached prior to re-entry.
So they’re not crazy enough to spend over sixteen months in a cramped capsule.
[Update a couple minutes later]
They’re already streaming from the press club. I see Jim Muncy talking on the phone in front of the speakers’ chairs.
[Update a while later]
I think I see Jim Keravala of Shackleton Energy Company in the front row, and closer to the camera, the back of Jeff Foust. And now I see Seth Borenstein, from AP.
[Update at 12:56 EDT]
Speakers seated now. Looks like (left to right) Tito, Taber, Jon Clark and Jane Poynter. Sharon Grace from AIAA just came in.
OK, Miles O’Brien is MCing. “Simplicity, audacity, liquidity.”
Jeff Foust has a picture.
You can see Keravala on the right edge of the shot.
O’Brien: “Sometimes you just have to weight anchor and shove off.”
This certainly fits in with the theme of my book.
Tito speaking now.
“Need to learn how crew responds to deep-space missions before attempting a landing.”
“This mission is a low-hanging fruit.”
Miles O’Brien just tweeted: “#InspirationMars seeking committed couples for a 501 day round trip to #Mars and back. No stopping for directions!”
“I will come out a lot poorer as a result of this mission, but my grandchildren will be enriched.”
Here‘s an interview that Jeff Foust did with Taber yesterday. “It all sort of kept working out.”
“No show stoppers, funding for first two years out of my pocket.”
“Media rights will be incredible, imagine Dr. Phil talking to the couple about their problems.”
Taber speaking now.
It strikes me that Taber and Jane are obvious crew candidates.
[Update a while later]
Now saluting the “program of record” (i.e., SLS/Orion). “Needed to actually explore Mars with team of scientists.” Can just barely do a flyby with current hardware.
Jonathan Clark about to speak now. It just occurs to me that it’s been almost exactly ten years (February 1) since he lost his wife on Columbia.
Jane speaking now. “Really long road trip in an RV, about a year and a half, and you can’t get out.” 3000 pounds of freeze-dried food, that will be rehydrated with the water you drank a couple days earlier.
[Update after end of conference]
Seth Borenstein: “Are you crazy?” OK, that was a paraphrase. Good response by Tito to his skepticism. I was thinking Apollo 8 and STS-1 when he was asking if this isn’t too risky, how do you do it without test flights, how do you do it in five years, bla bla bla.
Jon Clark pointing out that main crew health is a mission operational issue, because they are a part of the system in the need for them to maintain it. Can deal with cancer issues when the get back, but have to be sure that they are capable of performing throughout the mission.
Frank Morring of AvWeek asking about milestones to hit five-year deadline. When will crew be selected?
Taber: Dennis has committed to two years, and they don’t need to worry about money. Have signed Space Act agreement, life support under development, have to put together vehicle strategy soon to hold schedule. Clark says that it is a milestone-driven program. I would note that this is one of the advantages of having a limited window that you have to hit — it concentrates the mind, programmatically.
[Update toward the end of questioning]
Clark Lindsey has some good notes of the event.
Unique English Tweets
How many are there? Randall Munroe is answering the important questions.