I agree with John Kelly — they’re nothing to worry about, for a long time. As Clark Lindsey said a few days ago, all they’re doing is proving that they too can keep spaceflight expensive and rare.
I have to say, though, that most of the comments over there are (as is unfortunately typical) pretty ignorant.
There is a side benefit of a Nationalized Space Program and that is that it trains and keeps handy a cadre of scientists who can be put on other projects on an emergency basis – like a Manhattan project.
I’m not saying that’s a good justification for having a Nationalized Space Program but I am saying that a Command Controlled Regime might choose to use this mechanism. And it has the side effect of good PR when things work.
Their main concern is having enough launch capacity to launch satellites. The human spaceflight program piggybacks on that. Long March 5 keeps getting delayed. That is the main problem. But once Long March 5 is available it will be a top notch launcher with leading edge performance including technologies such as staged combustion. The Chinese are building a whole new launch site for it in Hainan island i.e. closer to the equator.
IMO they may be behind but it won’t be for long. They are already replicating the 1970s US and Soviet space programs and there isn’t a whole lot beyond that.
They may catch up with NASA. They won’t catch up with America.
We are still in our infancy. This is like saying we have nothing to worry about because we’re a one year old and they aren’t yet.
Putting people in orbit is a significant achievement. The next step would be landing on the moon and bringing them back. Something nobody can do today which puts a lie to anybody being ahead.
Our advantage is simply that private enterprise is on the verge of taking the lead.
Jay Leno had the best comment on this when the first Chinese astronaut orbited the earth: “Did you see that China has put their first astronaut into space? That would be really big news…if this was 1962!”
They are about on par with us in terms of non military activities and have the advantaged of being able to use all of our R&D. They seem patient and capable, who knows where they will be in ten years?
Sure we have some laurels but they get all squishy when you rest on them.
Considering China’s space activities in relation to their foreign policy, ecconomic policy, military build up, and espionage efforts, they are certainly a country to worry about. Recognizing the Chinese to be smart and capable is hardly “hysterics.”
How long it takes China to reach whatever mileststone in space is only relevant if we do anything significant during that same period.
They are about on par with us in terms of non military activities
I don’t think so. They can launch stuff into LEO. That’s it. They can’t put a probe on another planet, they can’t match SpaceX’s prices, they can’t put up a human more than once every couple years. Their space station is rudimentary. And they show no signs of any dramatic changes to the status quo. They are simply recapitulating what we did fifty years ago with more modern electronics.
True enough but they are pretty close to improving all of those things except for matching SpaceX’s prices. Ten or twenty years from now, there isn’t any reason for them not to be as advanced as we are and during that time what will NASA do? Mostly it comes down to an issue of time not capability.
Ten or twenty years seems like a long time but really it isn’t, especially if we lose another decade.
Regarding the probe the Chinese are sending a rover to the moon supposedly this year with their Chang’e 3 lunar mission. Chang’e 5 is supposed to be a lunar sample return mission.
As for sending a probe to Mars if they have the launch capacity to do it is fairly trivial.
Their space station is limited in size due to them using the Long March 2 rockets to launch components. Once Long March 5 is available they will be able to launch larger modules.
They have already demonstrated they can do space docking maneuvers and EVAs.
there isn’t any reason for them not to be as advanced as we are and during that time what will NASA do.
Again, NASA is irrelevant to this conversation. They won’t be as advanced as we are because…free enterprise.
They can launch stuff into LEO. That’s it.
But that’s the hard part (ask any suborbital company.) It’s halfway to anywhere.
25mt is very usable since they will put up depots which will also extend their 100mt rocket when it arrives soon enough. You can do an awful lot with 25mt if you do it right. 50mt is right around the corner.
Plus, they will takes risks which is the fastest path to better capabilities. Yes, they are behind, but like financial analysts say, past results do not predict the future. Things will change.