21 thoughts on “Wisconsin”

  1. Gonna say it again: Wisconsin, one of the rare places in the US where you can find vast swaths of liberal democrats in the majority in rural districts. And this isn’t due to gerrymandering, and it doesn’t reflect racial identity, and I think there are number of other ways these rural liberal districts do not resemble other liberal districts. In that respect, not a great microcosm.

    1. Well, the bluest county of all is made up entirely of the Menominee Indian Reservation; not really surprising that they would go that blue.

      Rounding out the top 5 are Dane County (UW-Madison, the Berkeley of the MidWest), Ashland (rural in the sense that it has no large city, but it’s in the North Woods, so not exactly rural-rural), Milwaukee County (Milwaukee, not rural), and Iowa County, a neighbor of Madison.

      “Rural” counties in Wisconsin and Minnesota aren’t really the same as other “rural” counties in the MidWest. In a landmass dominated by trees and ravines, the primary industries are cranberries and paper. Rural MidWest (and South) is known for crop farming and livestock, which have a completely different sense of ideals and way of life. The weather is better, too.

  2. The Democratic nominee has taken Wisconsin’s electoral votes in the last seven presidential elections, dating back to Dukakis in 1988; in that sense WI is more Dem-friendly than the country as a whole. A favorite son candidacy could break the streak, but Walker in particular may be too polarizing to win his home state in a presidential election year when youth and minority turnout is higher.

      1. The states that the Democrats won in every one of the last six elections (including WI) add up to 242 electoral votes. That plus Florida is enough to win. I imagine Jeb Bush will be reminding donors of that regularly.

    1. “A favorite son candidacy could break the streak, but Walker in particular may be too polarizing to win his home state in a presidential election year when youth and minority turnout is higher.”

      Walker wins every election lately – even nasty brutiish thuggish elections by the Dems – in a Dem state.

      Why would you THEN say he wouldn’t win the state in a Presidential election. Your “logic” if I stretch a definition is bizarrly twisted:

      He always wins State in state-wide elections so he’ll lose the state in a state-wide Presidential election.

      Very bizarre.

      What you fail to comprehend (along wiht other Statist sychophants) is that the nation’s voters are not what you think they are.

      On top of which your vaunted minority and youth vote will be way down next Presidential election because a minority isn’t running.

      And if the GOP wises up (a big if) those youth and minority voters are easily peeled away by pointing out just how wonderful Obama has been for them. All signs point to theose people beginning to realize they’ve been had.

      1. He always wins State in state-wide elections so he’ll lose the state in a state-wide Presidential election.

        Presidential election demographics are very different, and he hasn’t won his races by all that much (5-6%).

        On top of which your vaunted minority and youth vote will be way down next Presidential election because a minority isn’t running.

        We don’t actually know who will be running, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if there was a minority candidate on one or both tickets. But even if the tickets are all-white, I predict that the minority and youth vote will not be “way down”. To be specific, CNN exit polls report that the 2012 electorate was 19% age 18-29, and 28% non-white. I predict that 2016 exit polls will be at least 18% age 18-29 and at least 28% non-white. Feel free to call me on it if I’m wrong.

        By way of comparison, CNN’s 2014 midterm exit polls were 13% age 18-29 and 25% non-white, a very different electorate.

        And if the GOP wises up (a big if) those youth and minority voters are easily peeled away by pointing out just how wonderful Obama has been for them.

        They’d have to think that Obama was even worse for them post-2012 than he was pre-2012, because in 2012 — when the economy was significantly worse than today — they weren’t easily peeled away. But of course a lot can happen in the next 23 months.

        1. “Presidential election demographics are very different, and he hasn’t won his races by all that much (5-6%).”

          It’s the same set of voters. More people do vote during a Presidential election, yet you once again pretend you can see into the future and know how Wisconsonites will vote in 2016 and you KNOW that while they never threw him out in those votes, no matter how hard Dem thugs tried, they will somehow vote differently if he’s running for Prez.

          and a 5-6 point win is “not all that much” ?????

          It’s a landslide which, I suspect, you would agree with if it were a Dem running.

          1. It’s the same set of voters.

            Votes cast in 2012 WI presidential race: 3,068,434
            Votes cast in 2014 WI governor’s race: 2,410,314

            There are at least 650,000 WI voters who voted in 2012 but didn’t vote in 2014.

            It’s a landslide which, I suspect, you would agree with if it were a Dem running.

            No, 5-6% isn’t a landslide. Obama’s 7.3% popular vote win in 2008 wasn’t a landslide, and his 3.8% 2012 win wasn’t close to being a landslide. I’d say you need to break double digits to get into landslide territory.

        2. Presidential election demographics are very different, and he hasn’t won his races by all that much (5-6%).

          Um that’s a lot. Our beloved President won with less and it was a “landslide”.

    2. The minority percentages were almost the same in this election as in 2012. The youth vote was down about 7 points. Perhaps millennials are just into the cult of the personality and there won’t be a massive turnout in 2016. It’s all speculation. Millennials are getting older, as well and that is a plus for the republicans.

      Only the democrats thought Walker was polarizing. A bunch of useless government employees banging drums in Madison is good fodder for hippies, but not for mainstream Wisconsin.

  3. Darkstar, sttate government races are often disconnected from federal politics — I’ve voted for Republican governors in Illinois several times, but I can’t imagine voting for a Republican for Congress or the Presidency.
    Johmy B, I was thinking of the South West corner of Wisconsin: lots of farms, lots of liberal farmers.

    1. I’ve voted for Republican governors in Illinois several times, but I can’t imagine voting for a Republican for Congress or the Presidency
      Because screwing up Washington is one thing, but screwing up my home state? Naw, that’s a step too far.

  4. I don’t think Wisconsin itself is a microcosm of the US for reasons other posters have pointed out, and I don’t think Scott Walker would carry Wisconsin if he ran for President. I do think the problems Wisconsin was facing pre-Walker are similar to the type of problems America is facing now, and require a similar remedy. For that reason I do think Scott Walker should be the next President and has a chance to win even if he doesn’t carry Wisconsin.

  5. Walker’s on my short list. I’m positive that we’ll see a governor, and Walker and Perry both have records of success to run on. Christie, though I like his combativeness, has only had limited and equivocal success in New Jersey; and Jeb is the one man who could give us President Hillary.

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