Will SpaceX do it before NASA does?
That would be the way to bet, absent some dramatic change in attitude on the Hill.
[Update a couple minutes later]
Speaking of which, one of a very long series of essays (including a lot of history) on why SpaceX will settle Mars. Because it’s a priority for Elon Musk, but not for the federal government.
[Update a few minutes later]
Here is the Space News op-ed from Lori, with a lot of interesting history of the transition in 2009.