A Grand Solar Minimum

It may be happening:

The policy significance of this issue is clear: if we are headed to a mid-20th century solar minimum, or a Grand Solar Minimum for the next two centuries, this will offset greenhouse warming to some extent. The extent of the offset depends on whether climate sensitivity to CO2 is on the larger or smaller end of the range of estimates, and the magnitude of the solar impact. But the sign of the solar offset is becoming increasingly clear: towards cooling.

One of the reasons I’ve been skeptical about claims that carbon will be catastrophic is the willful insistence on ignoring the sun, and I can’t think of any reason to do it than because we don’t understand it, and therefore it can’t be included in the hysterical modeling, and it can’t fit the narrative. I continue to believe that what we don’t understand about climate is much greater than what we do.

[Update a few minutes later]

Is the dam bursting? Climate researchers who have previously denigrated solar activity as being insignificant are now warning of a new mini ice age.

I really have trouble taking any of this seriously.

12 thoughts on “A Grand Solar Minimum”

  1. Possible down side of a grand solar minimum is increased galactic cosmic radiation throughout the solar system. The physics of the solar magnetosphere and its interaction with GCR still aren’t well understood, and it should only be a minor issue for Earth as we’ve got our own, but it may increase the risk of manned flight beyond Low Earth Orbit.

  2. Solar activity,
    Adiabatic compression,
    Convection and phase change of water as dominant heat transfer mechanisms,
    Strongly temperature sensitive low altitude cloud formation,
    Cosmic radiation seeding high altitude cloud formation,
    And possible other factors I haven’t heard of, all contributing more to global temperature balance than the CO2 dominant in IPCC endorsed models.

  3. From your second link:
    According to the PIK scientists, the reduced solar activity will, however, not be able to stop the global warming and only brake the warming up to 2100 by 0.3°C.

    The “new little ice age” claim appears to be more attributable to the Berliner Kurier reporter than the PIK scientists.

    1. All of the AGW alarmists predictions have been wrong, why would this one be right?

      No one really knows what will happen. History can illustrate what happened during other minimums but this one will be different.

    2. “….the reduced solar activity will, however, not be able to stop the global warming….”

      No of course not. Sheesh.

  4. Who knows what will happen? The people making sunspot predictions couldn’t predict the double peak or the time scale of the current cycle. Will they be able to predict what happens during the incoming solar minimum?

  5. Options:

    1) Well the problem is that capitalist, consumerist society misuses the sunlight we do receive!

    2) We have to come together to make sure our albedo is in sync with the natural cycles of the sun.

    3) We are destroying the sun’s natural stability by launching space probes with abandon!

  6. “Climate researchers who have previously denigrated solar activity as being insignificant are now warning of a new mini ice age.”

    Which they did in the 1970’s (only it was a maxi ice age then).

    They’ve been eye-wateringly wrong so often and in 180 degree directions (ice age – burning planet).

    You almost think that they love to predict disaster…that’s THAT is where they get their jollies.

    And of course, the prescription is always the same:


  7. Meanwhile all the bow tied, bespeckled, birkenstocked bum kissers are wailing and rending their garments in abject grief:

    Energiewoopsie, Or, What Happens When You Dump Nuclear Power

    The greens have been aflutter for years about Germany’s energiewende, or “energy revolution,” partly because it involves a lot of their sacred windmills and solar panels and partly because it’s a revolution man, so dig it!

    Better put the patchouli-infused hemp robes away for the moment, because Germany is backpedalling fast. From Reuters yesterday:

    Germany waters down climate protection plan


    So all the arrogant virtue signaling was for naught huh?

  8. How about GCMs that can work say across a 10 year window? Get that working first say? How about GCMs that can work reliably *backwards* 10 years, then 20 years then 50 years? Then work towards 10, 20, 50 and 100 years forward? What a novel idea…

  9. If there were anything to “global warming,” or “climate change,” or whatever the transnational socialists call their Big Lie this week, they wouldn’t have to make it illegal to question them.


    Scroll down to “Climate Change.” Hillary wants to put you in jail if you question the Official Truth about “global warming.” That’s all anyone should really need to know about the subject.

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