1.5 Degrees C

Thoughts on the latest non-news from Judith Curry:

IMO, even with erroneous attribution of extreme weather/climate events and projections using climate models that are running too hot and not fit for purpose of projecting 21st century climate change, the IPCC still has not made a strong case for this massive investment to prevent 1.5C warming.

No kidding.

18 thoughts on “1.5 Degrees C”

  1. If only the media were as savvy. The trend line observed so far is .1 deg per decade or 1 deg C over the next century. No sign of acceleration to date, other than the model curves which are already far above observed. Fact is, economics are going to drive down CO2 emissions. In 50 years people will view gas powered cars as exotics, in 100 years as antiques. The cost of ownership of electrics will eventually win the day.

    1. In 50 years, the only place we’ll see cars on Earth is in VR racing games. There’ll be no need to move our bodies around when we can just log into a VR bot at our destination.

      And that is why worries about ‘global warming’ are just silly. Demand for oil to burn is about to collapse.

      1. I think I’ll still want to move my body to the close vicinity of my date. VR will be an advanced tool of natural selection.

    2. About 80% of Chinese electrical power is from coal power plants.
      So if you have electric car in China it’s mostly powered by burning coal.

      What causes the most CO2 emission is burning coal to make electrical power.
      China has twice the CO2 emission as compared to US, because 80% of Chinese electrical power is from coal power plants- not from driving gasoline powered cars.

      1. No argument from me. In the US natural gas is replacing coal for electrical production because it’s more economical. I agree electricity is only as “clean” as it’s source. The US is not the major contributor to atmospheric CO2 and will not be. So we are already the “role-model” even without the binding agreements needed to damage our economy.

    3. “Fact is, economics are going to drive down CO2 emissions. ”

      They already are…here in the US. You know, the country that passed on Kyoto and the Paris Accords.

  2. Another thought. If cars eventually follow in the footpath of high tech gadgetry; then will come the day when drive trains & active suspensions become standardized. Performance packages will depend on software updates, styling will be a matter of standard interior and exterior body panel and seat replacements. You might own a drivetrain and suspension for 30 years, but in that time you went from a two seat sports car to a 4 passenger SUV and back down to 4 door comfy ride touring sedan, all with panel replacements and software updates. You’ve had the same drive train for 30 years, with only 3 power pack replacements. What the heck is an oil change? And why would I need it?

  3. A.C. Clarke Profiles Of The Future: The Race between Transportation and Telecommunication. Yes it’s looking like telecommunications is winning that race, barring a scientific breakthrough that makes Star Trek Transporters a reality. Thus instead of Stepping Disks, we have Brains In A Box. But I posit 50 years isn’t quite enough time for the full BINAB experience.

      1. Me neither.

        I’m not sure stepping disks don’t have the same drawback as the Star Trek transporter, either, though.

    1. I did. I’m sure it’s just coincidence, like Barack Obama getting the Nobel prize early in his administration, and there is nothing political about it at all.

    2. I heard Romer didn’t answer the call thinking it was a telemarketer.
      Someone trying to sell him carbon credits?

    3. Have we reached Peak Economics? Especially in recent decades, most of the winners have not really done anything novel or practical. The work of Roth and Shapely in market design has real world applications, but only because free markets for things like organ transplant and medical residencies have been prohibited.

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