The ongoing disaster continues.
This attempt to give the failing Boeing a monopoly on human spaceflight will have to be reconciled with the Senate bill.
[Update a few minutes later]
An article from a month ago explaining why this bill is so terrible.
By the way, I quit the National Space Society almost three decades ago because they were doing nothing to promote actual space settlement, instead taking industry funding to promote whatever NASA and Big Aerospace wanted to do, even though there was no plausible path from those things to the organization’s stated goals. But I agree (and am working with) the new leadership of the organization as represented by the authors of that Spacenews op-ed.
If you were a legislator with $10-billion, would you want it spent efficiently by free-market forces or would you want it spent to feed the host of your family’s parasitic lifestyle? Maybe you have an Engineering mentality, but what about the other 200 legislators looking at the same $10-billion? You either go along with them, or become shunned and impotent.
The root of the problem is essentially the unlimited $$$ to be spent by D.C. What are we going to do about that?
L5 should never have gotten in bed with NSI. I knew it was the wrong thing to do at the time. I haven’t changed my mind.
I hope the worst aspects of this flagrantly corrupt piece of legislation will be ground off in conference but, even if not, I’m less exercised about it than I would have been a few years ago.
From the 1930’s to the present, the most consequential decisions about what would be done anent space, and how, were made by governments. We are rapidly approaching a tipping point on the far side of which – and one hopes, forever – steadily more such decisions will be made by actors in the private sector.
It’s even possible to give a precise description of where this approaching tipping point lies. It will be the day on which the first SpaceX Starship to have reached Earth orbit and returned from same touches down – gently and intact – on a landing pad in Florida or Texas.
From that day forward, what NASA, the U.S. Congress and all the other governmental space agencies in all the nations of the Earth, plus all their “connected” crony contractors, choose to do in space will collectively matter less than what Elon Musk decides to do.
And he will be only the first and most significant of the private sector actors who will soon dominate the shaping of humanity’s future in space.
The government legislatures, heads of state and agencies will continue – at least for awhile – to “do” and spend, but it will matter less and less. At some point, most of these will pass into history, dead of terminal irrelevance.
We live in historic times, ladies and gentlemen – even more so than was the Apollo Era of the 1960’s.
I agree on the tipping point. However, we should be ready to man the ramparts once that day comes and politicians move to cease and control SpaceX’s Starship.
My powder’s dry, but I don’t think that day is coming. Space pork is very important to a few in Congress, but not to enough to make that raw a move.
And it isn’t like SpaceX is entirely friendless in Congress anyway. In any future pissing contest anent SpaceX, I expect the TX delegation, and maybe even the perpetually clueless CA delegation, to go partners on opposing the AL Mafia and their allies in UT and CO.
Shelby & Co’s. last serious run at SpaceX was back in 2014-15 and got them pretty much nowhere. The correlation of forces has since moved heavily in SpaceX’s direction.
“Effectively, if this authorization bill goes through and becomes official doctrine, it will relegate space exploration to the private sector, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. ”
Yes, it would not be a bad thing.
Anyhow, I am failing to see the problem/disaster.
Yes, “The ongoing disaster continues.”
A question is, will NASA land crew on the Moon before the year 2024 AD, ends.
If “The ongoing disaster continues”, then obviously, the answer is definitely, no way, not chance. Or this would require NASA is change it’s decades long habit.
If NASA lands a crew on the Moon by 2024 or 2025 AD, one could be unhappy that NASA didn’t do more than this. But it seems if NASA did that, it would be improvement.
If instead by say, summer of 2024, NASA is no where near to landing crew on the Moon. That would be NASA being it’s normal self.
And it would not really matter what Congress is deciding, now- unless Congress wanted to put crew on the Moon before 2023.
But it would not speed it up, if Congress wanted a lunar base or wanted to go to Mars, instead of the Moon.
NASA or Congress is not doing what I want them to do- I would focus of lunar robotic exploration and not landing crew as soon as 2024. But if NASA can land a crew on the Moon by 2024, it might work out better- in terms of exploring the Moon faster.
I would massively build a lunar robotic program, and continue the robotic program into a having more massive Mars robotic program.
Spend less than two year with manned Lunar at end of Lunar program, transiting Manned Lunar to to Manned Mars.
And Manned Mars would use a lot Mars robotic missions.
If there is any commercial lunar water mining, it seems it will depend on a lot teleoperations/robotic activity. But I would not mine the Moon without some crew “presence” on the lunar surface- but most of work would done from Earth.
But we aren’t doing that.
Next question, if NASA land crew on the Moon by 2024 AD, how quickly is NASA going to do something else. Do think NASA will have crew on Mars before 2034 AD.
Or do think at that point, NASA might decide to do a lot robotic missions to Mars.
I tend to think manned Mars is going to need to use a lot robotic mission and I would have crew on Mars when doing a lot of Mars robotic missions. Or the massive build up of Lunar robotic mission, is a starting point toward a Manned Mars mission.
Or manned Moon by 2024, could be faster way to explore the Moon, but slower way to explore Mars and possibly slower in terms of commercial lunar water mining.
But one aspect of exploring the Moon, is that it proves or provides confidence that NASA “might be” able to explore Mars.
And if NASA could land crew on Moon by 2024 AD {instead of delaying it for forever} that isn’t much in terms adding confidence, but it’s “something”.
I was in L-5. so shifted to NSS at the merger. I went along with it for a while, to the extent of writing a few articles for Ad Astra, including one about Near-Earth Asteroids in 1989, that led to me talking asteroid retrieval up to Lori Garver. But after a while, I let my membership lapse, as I saw it become just another version of The Planetary Society. Grass roots space advocacy seemed like a good idea, but it accomplished little. Goofy billionaires on the other hand…
NASA needs to focus its human spaceflight program on research that supports and enables private, commercial long duration human spaceflight:
* Characterize the deep space radiation environment, its affect on human health and develop cost effective shielding or mitigation.
* Understand human tolerance for partial gravity fields and study possible mitigation.
* Develop closed loop, or nearly closed loop ECLSS.
* Map and characterize water resources on Moon and Mars.
* Develop ISRU technologies for water recovery and generating fuel and oxygen.
Until Congress agrees, it’s not going to do any of those things.
If Starship works out, the cost of doing those things will drop precipitously. No Congress or NASA necessary. Maybe NSS and the Planetary Society could do it.
SpaceX will do it as it is the entity with both the money and real incentive to git ‘er done. The NSS can cheer from the sidelines it it wants to. The Planetary Society won’t want to.