8 thoughts on “Civilization”

  1. I don’t know, I think these types of comments are half the problem. At this point, it is fairly obvious that the death rate in the USA is going to be about 1.5%. If things get really out of hand, 150 M people will likely get the illness, so about 2.5 M people die.

    That’s terrible, of course, just like the 100K that die from the flu is terrible. But 1.5% of the population, preferentially chosen from those not working, is not going to end society. Society won’t even notice!

    The only reason we are having these issues is that we decided to try to fight it.

  2. No, 2.5M Americans are not going to die from this, likely less than 20K, either because of or despite the government edicts. You cannot use a cruise ship full of retirees or a suburb with business executives just back from Wuhan as a basis for epidemiology. Almost nobody will die from this without some underlying health issue (including, unfortunately, being geriatric).

    Once the corpses fail to pile up convincingly and the warmer weather puts the brakes on this virus, people will stop the panic and will begin to go about their normal lives again, even if it means going to restaurants-cum-speakeasies. And come Autumn, when the disease starts to flare up again, it will be comparatively minor, since there will by then be a large percentage of humanity who have already had it, most without realizing it, slowing any further spread.

    What we cannot rule out is severe damage to our economy, as many small businesses will fold under the emergency rules. How many movie theaters and sports bars and nail salons, many already on the edge, are going to survive this? You have a favorite restaurant? Call them up and see if you can order take-out – it might just make the difference for them and you, food being one of the few entertainments we are allowed right now, if only in private quarters.

    When the panic fades, politicians will pat themselves on the back, the media will move onto the next story (wasn’t there an election?), and life will return to close to normal. Yeah, maybe I am wrong, but decades of experience tells me that those in charge are responding more to perceptions than to anything real. That is, they do not seem like they really believe it themselves.

  3. Don’t count on the weather putting the brakes on the virus. It is only early Fall (autumn) in Australia and it is spreading rapidly here in Queensland where it is warm and sunny. Government has taken panic measures.

  4. “I am the Great Coronaholio! I need TP for my bunghole!”

    In my city not only is toilet paper unavailable, facial tissues and paper towels are hard to find. At one grocery store each customer is allowed two gallons of water and one gallon of milk. At another beef is restricted to two packages each.

    Civilization is an epiphenomenon. Flying cars can wait until food, sanitation and infection control are assured.

    1. According to a friend of mine who’s been to town, the local Walmart appears pretty normal – you wouldn’t know anything unusual was going on unless you saw the aisle where the toilet paper, tissues, and paper towels are; totally empty (and, I assume, hand sanitizer.). The Costco is busier than even at Christmas, but pretty well stocked – except of course for toilet paper.

      It’s a weird world when toilet paper, but not food, is what’s being horded.

      My guess is we’ll be okay, and soon things will return to normal – save for one thing; toilet paper will replace gold as the world’s value standard, at the same price per ounce that gold once commended.

      The jewelry market will never be the same again…

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