Where are we really with the virus?
Note that (as is often the case with healthcare statistics) different countries are keeping books differently, making it difficult to compare. I continue to believe that the fatality rate will ultimately end up being far below one percent.
[Update early afternoon]
A lot of links from Instapundit. Things are looking better than the models. One I found of interest is that if we can believe Chinese data, four out of five cases are asymptomatic.
“Then, we’d have a number – inescapably, an estimate – that says how risky this whole plague is to the average Joe.”
I think we roughly know that- the risk to average Joe from dying from Wuhan virus is low.
But at about this moment in time, I would say the chance of currently having or getting Wuhan virus in next month and having symptoms which are noticeable to severe and might lead to death are greater than getting and having and possibly dying from “normal flu” in the next month.
And fatality rate of the Wuhan virus is less 1 percent {I am pretty certain} but less than 1 percent is far higher then the “normal flu- which is less than .1 percent per year.
It seems if you talking about Whhan virus per year and in particular this year{and you can select/choose when the year starts and ends in order to get the highest percentage, the Wuhan virus in the US will have about the same chance as the “common flu” {which a host of different flus btw} of causing deaths. Or Wuhan flu per year in US will probably have less than .1 percent. But there is a lot range in this number of less then .1 percent and we don’t know enough to be able to give a more precise number. And even when we are “out of fog of war” it’s still unlikely to get more precise number other than less than .1 percent, but perhaps get some number like less than .08 percent.
But you if you can choose per month {and which month} rather than year and you have reasonable metric of what you call the cause of death. And it’s reasonable because it’s something in the past we have used, and it’s reasonable to have consistent method when measuring- or trying to compare it to other outbreaks or pandemics- or just any kind of cause of death. Then it seem we are having or will be having a high rate of death from the Wuhan virus (SARS-CoV-2) in a month period of time or even over a few months.
Or as from the beginning the main issue is to flatten the curve.
And one can argue {and probably lose} whether flattening the curve
was/is a good plan.
How you/we flatten the curve could easily be said to be the “wrong way”- second guessing is fun hobby and is quite easy to do.
I had been hanging on to hope that there are a great number of people who caught this thing and had nothing more than the sniffles, or at least no shortness of breath to send them to a clinic or a hospital. That would mean that the death rate is closer to seasonal flu.
So far, the testing has been done by measuring “viral load” rather than if you are “pos” for this particular virus. Being “pos” for this virus could be a good thing in that you may have immunity to it until it mutates, by which time vaccines may be chasing it like with the flu.
I hear that we should have such blood tests soon to test for antibodies. Some people are talking about taking blood plasma from people who are antibody positive to come up with a “serum” to fight the virus in the ill or to offer protection to front-line health workers, a “serum against the virus” just like in the Charlton Heston movie “Omega Man.”
I know that desperate times call for desperate measures, but treating a viral disease with a blood product in the age of AIDS sounds like a dodgy proposition.
On the other hand, if large numbers of people test positive, that is the herd immunity people are looking for — the epidemic will crest and then fade away, or at least for now.
Tests on a population of first-responders as volunteer blood donors in Telluride, CO were not encouraging because very few tested positive. Tests on a town in Italy are very promising in that heard-immunity levels of blood donors tested positive. On the other hand, this was one of the most badly ravaged towns in Italy.
I would like to see antibody testing ramp up to just see where we are and if there is any hope for enough people, even if only in New York, being positive for the epidemic to burn out.
In the mean time, if GM and GE can produce respirators, can’t they produce face masks? By the way, the Surgeon General has a video showing how to home brew a cloth mask from a square of cloth and two rubber bands. The efficient way he assembled and donned that mask, however, suggests that this man may have had prior experience with this sort of thing . . .
It won’t be able to mutate like the flu because it’s a single strand virus, whereas the two most common flu types of have eight strands and the less common flu has seven strands. Each of those individual strands can get swapped out with a strand from a different strain when someone gets infected with two types of flu at the same time, making a new version.
Corona virus doesn’t have that kind of handy upgrade toolkit.
I would say a significant aspect about this pandemic is a lot people and a lot {or all} of the media is trying to get into the weeds regarding this general matter. Which some people could call hysteria.
I would call it, mostly a bunch people who can’t swim who are in water.
The epidemic is quite serious, and that is why I am tired of reading another headline “US Deaths Reach New High.” I already know that and don’t need to be nagged about it.
For anyone of the opinion that this thing is way more widespread than we think, i.e. “there’s asymptotic people all over the place”, the numbers coming in from Telluride (blanket testing, for antibodies, so the definition of a “case” is irrelevant) can probably be fairly described as sobering.
“COVID-19 BLOOD TEST RESULTS (first round)
986 tests were done on March 26th and 27th
8 were positive
23 were indeterminate (borderline)
955 were negative”
So, .97 of 986 is 955
And 327 million times .97 = 317 million America on the average
of COLORADO between March 26th and 27th
Not sure what area of COLORADO and have way of really knowing
stats in particular region of COLORADO, anyhow.
But in terms of entire state:
“yesterday” Colorado had a total of 5,172 cases
and Colorado pop has 5.76 million.
Times that pop by .97 is 5.5872 million who had no immunity or .1728 million that might of had immunity on 27th of March and how much would increase in 10 days.
It seems it could double every 2 days or double 5 times allowing a possibly that now it’s got 2.7648 of 5.76 million total population.
but I would guess it’s less than 1 million currently, or it has too low of immunity to have affect speed of transmission by much.
Whereas I think New York city could a much higher percentage of immunity at the moment.