17 thoughts on “A Quieting Sun”

  1. To get global warming or cooling you have to warm or cool the ocean.

    We are in an Ice Age. And we have a cold ocean which has average temperature of about 3.5 C.

    The Greenhouse Effect theory is pseudo science- the amount of greenhouse gases is small variable, rather than the only variable.
    The claim that greenhouse gases add 33 K to global average- is false.
    They gave the excuse that, they could not think of any other explanation- which provides proof there uneducated condition.
    The most significant aspect of our global climate is that we are in a Ice Age. Everyone knows it and everyone knew it when they presented their hypotheses called the “Greenhouse effect theory”.

    Or if want to talk about Earth global average temperature and you have been in an Ice Age, the issue, is what is causing Earth to be in a cold state, rather than a warm state.

    And what causing Earth to be in a cold state, is that Earth has a cold ocean.
    It appear to me {any correction is desired} that during our Ice Age the average ocean temperature has been as cold as about 1 C and has warmed up as high as 5 C. AND that a 5 C ocean is still a cold ocean. And I would say that a ocean which had an average temperature of 15 C is a warm ocean.

    What do “experts” say:
    ” More than 90 percent of the warming that has happened on Earth over the past 50 years has occurred in the ocean. Recent studies estimate that warming of the upper oceans accounts for about 63 percent of the total increase in the amount of stored heat in the climate system from 1971 to 2010, and warming from 700 meters down to the ocean floor adds about another 30 percent.”
    So it seems that following their pseudo science, they say greenhouse gas effects has 90% effected the entire ocean temperature.
    And I would say, any factor warming the ocean, is ‘global warming” and anything cooling the ocean is “global cooling”.
    Or anything causing warming of Ocean is the entirety of the global warming and anything causing the cooling of the Ocean is the entirety of the global cooling.
    Or 3.5 C is the correct measure of our global temperature.

    But we are considering the surface air temperature as Earth’s average global temperature. Though I would agree that global surface air temperature is more important to the humans living on the surface of Earth. And one could say it’s something humans should interested in.
    Now, global surface air temperature is were the warmest air is, and the warmest ocean surface temperature is. And this caused by gravity:
    In gravity, the warmer water rises and stays on surface, and due to gravity the densest atmosphere is at the surface.
    What causes air temperature is density of air, and it’s average molecular velocity. Air temperature is kinetic energy {velocity and mass}.

    A strange or a peculiarity {or elephant in the room} is how can our average global air temperature be 15 C and we have an ocean of 3.5 C?
    Or to state simply if had a room with 15 C temperature and there was swimming pool in room at 15 C air temperature, the swimming pool water will be about 15 C.
    It’s not difficult riddle if understand Earth’s climate.
    But as far I know the Greenhouse effect theory doesn’t give you any clues. Or pseudo science in many ways, but another example of it being unable to be predictive.

    Anyways, getting to topic of post, will low sun activity cause global cooling?
    In terms of what is understood as global temperature, according to the pseudo science of Greenhouse effect theory. Maybe.
    But will cause the oceans to cool? Again, possibly. But the ocean temperature doesn’t change quickly.
    As far as I know the ocean temperature has been about 3.5 C for last 5 thousand years, and seems unlikely change as much as 1 K in terms of warming or cooling within the next thousand.
    But a mere .5 K change in the ocean temperature is a big effect.
    Or I would guess Little Ice age was about .2 K of cooling and last few centuries have been about .2 K of warming. And in terms of centuries, it’s possible the ocean could warm or cool by another .2 C.
    It seems unlikely the ocean will cool by a much as .1 C within a couple decades.
    But I think solar min could have significant global weather effect and what is measured and called global temperature is mostly weather.

    1. As I understand it, the Little Ice Age didn’t cause much cooling overall, but the change in the jetstreams due to the low solar activity changed the weather patterns so, for example, most of Canada was cooler while Alaska was warmer.

      Add in increased volcanic activity throwing crap in the atmosphere (which usually seems to happen during extended solar minimums, for reasons which aren’t entirely clear), and it was bad news for people who had to rely on agriculture to survive.

      1. If we get just one of the several large volcanic eruption which occurred during LIA, it will make this pandemic seem like a minor event.
        The only possible up side, is the fake new will curl up in ball and their catatonic state would require confinement in nut houses.
        And many of the most useless politicans will simply flee and Biden will have seemed be heroic in comparison.

  2. These climatic cooling events were historically avoided through mass human sacrifice.

    *Looks at governor Cuomo*

    We’ll probably dodge this one.

  3. So, just assuming that this is an actual ice age, not just a “little” minimum, anybody know how long these things take to settle in? I live on Long Island, which was basically created by bulldozer glaciers of the last two ice ages. Maybe it is time to sell out? 🙂

    Of course, it might just be that modern technology would be able to overcome the ice age, in selected, populated areas. I don’t know, New York City could line the edge of the Bronx with large municipal hair dryers pointed north. Maybe conga lines of dump trucks hauling ice across Connecticut and dumping it in Long Island Sound. Okay, maybe not practical, but the Dutch built dikes and used windmills to pump the water out, so there should be some way to thwart nature in localized, um, locations.

    Then again, the older I get, the better Florida looks.

    1. –John K Berntson
      May 17, 2020 At 4:48 AM
      So, just assuming that this is an actual ice age, not just a “little” minimum, anybody know how long these things take to settle in? I live on Long Island, which was basically created by bulldozer glaciers of the last two ice ages. Maybe it is time to sell out? 🙂–

      We are in an Ice Age, more specifically we are in a interglacial period- Or within/between glaciation periods- there is no doubt we will enter a glaciation period. There are varying opinions about when we start to enter our glaciation period. I someone who I imagine could be correct thinks this occur in +1000 years. Others imagine current and rising global CO2 level could delay entering our next glaciation period by 10,000 or more years. No one claims we not enter a glaciation period in the future. No claims we not in an Ice Age.
      It’s also called a Icehouse Climate and a few including myself call it an icebox {as in active refrigerator or simply putting block ice in cupboard {an old fashion refrigerator- before we got the fancy electricity- and frozen lake was delivered}.
      An Ice Age or Icebox Climate has a cold ocean and polar ice caps.
      And a Hothouse Climate {hothouse is another word for greenhouse}
      has warm ocean and no “permanent” ice caps.
      Though we been an Ice Age for millions of years, and have no ice which much older than 2 million years old. And oldest ices found in the world has been found in Antarctica. But glaciers flow and geothermal heat could melt them- but older ice might be found.

      Anyways, if entered a glaciation {and it’s possible we have already entered it] it take a long time to Ice sheet in the Temperate Zone.
      And how you could detect it, is glacier grow, or called advance.
      Glaciers during the Little Ice Age, advanced in temperate zone- and why it’s called the Little Ice Age, and why the Little Ice Age ended, because the glacier than started to retreat.
      But as understand it, they haven’t yet retreated and far as they advanced during the Little Ice Age, and until do this, then the Little Ice Age will be known as the beginning of glaciation period in the future- they will be able to get dated ice, proving it.

      In my opinion, a glaciation period start when our oceans are 3 C, and currently our ocean are 3.5 C. But one could a glaciation period starts by whatever started to cause the ocean to become 3 C, could mark the beginning. But we talking thousands of years to say we in glaciation period rather starting to enter into a glaciation period.

      1. I doubt it’s a real ice age, though we should be in one right now and it’s not clear why we’re not. However, I believe that some ice ages have only taken a few decades to begin, with sudden, massive drops in global temperature.

        1. We are in a real ice age, it’s the coldest Earth been in last 200 million years. We also in period with a low level of CO2, we come close to extinct levels of low CO2- around 180 ppm, and plants start dying around 150 ppm. Of course there is plenty of CO2 in our cold oceans, so I mean plants living on land.
          “Earth is currently in the Quaternary glaciation, known in popular terminology as the Ice Age. Individual pulses of cold climate within an ice age are termed “glacial periods” (or, alternatively, “glacials”, “glaciations”, “glacial stages”, “stadials”, “stades”, or colloquially, “ice ages”), and intermittent warm periods within an ice age are called “interglacials” or “interstadials”, with both climatic pulses part of the Quaternary or other periods in Earth’s history.”
          “In the terminology of glaciology, ice age implies the presence of extensive ice sheets in both northern and southern hemispheres. By this definition, we are in an interglacial period—the Holocene.”

          A lot of people believe in Snowball or Slushball Earth.
          I don’t. But in the fantasy, a Snowball Earth would be colder than a Icehouse Climate.
          People who believe a Slushball Earth is possible, appear to me, to have some clue about the tropics.
          The tropics get far more sunlight than rest of the world, and it’s average temperature is about 26 C. And would say our tropics has never had average temperature below 20 C.
          With slushball Earth I would guess the tropics average temperature would be about 10 C.
          But Snowball or Slushball Earth is imagined to have occurred more 300 million years ago. And due to plate tectonics, it would have been world unlike the present world.
          And due to plate tectonic, 70% of Earth surface is sea floor, and the oldest sea floor is about 200 million year old.
          Or Earth has very young sea floor.

          Btw, another “theory/fantasy I don’t believe is true, is that once upon time, Venus had a ocean- and more crazy, it was similar to Earth.

  4. “There is no scientific reason to think it won’t happen.”
    And even less to think it will.

    1. That is because the science is uncertain, and it would be nice if people recognized the uncertainty when saying normal temperature variations are really a sign of impending climate apocalypse.

  5. “Even if a Grand Solar Minimum were to last a century, global temperatures would continue to warm,” NASA Global Climate Change reported, according to Pennlive. “Because more factors than just variations in the Sun’s output change global temperatures on Earth, the most dominant of those today being the warming coming from human-induced greenhouse gas emissions.”


  6. If this is accurate and the sun is entering a grand minimum (I think it is – I’ve been following the Livingston-Penn theory for years, and it predicted this based on declining magnetic intensity of sunspots) then we could indeed see some cooling, plus some regional weather changes. It’s worth remembering that the little ice age destroyed the Viking colonies on Greenland – colonies that had existed for longer than the United States has, by a factor of two.

    The only thing I’m unsure of is how, exactly, this situating arising from the sun’s core can be blamed on Donald Trump. I have no doubt it will be, I’m just unsure as to how.

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